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If driverless cars were perfected and in wide use within two decades, tens of millions of jobs would be swallowed whole in America alone, even a lot of the piecework positions that supplanted solid middle-class ones. More likely, entire industries won’t be disappeared whole cloth by new technologies but will just increasingly become frayed at the edges. That will add up.

Law is one area particularly prone. From Leanna Garfield at Business Insider:

Hiring a lawyer for a parking-ticket appeal is not only a headache, but it can also cost more than the ticket itself. Depending on the case and the lawyer, an appeal — a legal process where you argue out of paying the fine — can cost between $400 to $900.

But with the help of a robot made by British programmer Joshua Browder, 19, it costs nothing. Browder’s bot handles questions about parking-ticket appeals in the UK. Since launching in late 2015, it has successfully appealed $3 million worth of tickets.

Once you sign in, a chat screen pops up. To learn about your case, the bot asks questions like “Were you the one driving?” and “Was it hard to understand the parking signs?” It then spits out an appeal letter, which you mail to the court. If the robot is completely confused, it tells you how to contact Browder directly.

The site is still in beta, and the full version will launch this spring, Browder, a Stanford University freshman, tells Tech Insider.

Since laws are publicly available, bots can automate some of the simple tasks that human lawyers have had to do for centuries.•

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tailman7

Like Jeb Bush, Zoltan Istvan is not going to be President. The difference between the two is that the Transhumanist Party candidate has actually brought to the trail a lot of interesting ideas on radical life extension, bio-hacking, designer babies, algorithmic governance, etc.

It can be shocking stuff, but since none of it’s theoretically impossible, it’s useful to spend time on the topics. Some of Istvan’s vision for tomorrow strikes me as ethically unsavory, and the timeframe he suggests for the mass acceptance of this future is almost always far too aggressive (e.g. people will electively be having their eyeballs replaced with robotic ones within a dozen years). But I do enjoy considering his outré observations. 

From Ian Allison’s piece on Istvan at IBT:

“It’s amazing to me that Hilary Clinton or Jed Bush or Trump will not say anything about designer babies, even though virtually every scientist you talk about says the genetic editing, the gene editing innovations in the last two years have the potential to forever change the human race.

“I mean I have got friends that are trying to grow tails. I have friends that are literally trying to splice plant DNA into their own DNA so that they can go out in the sun and get energy into their cells directly from the sun, so they’d have photosynthesis capabilities.”

Istvan said we are slowly seeing a discursive space where biohackers and transhumanists can share the potential to “mess with themselves”, especially now with DIY DNA CRISPER kits.

“If you think losing our jobs to robots is crazy, I mean people walking around with tails and horns coming out of their head, that’s really crazy and yet, we now have this possibility. I think Transhumanism is wonderful but a lot of the questions are going unanswered because it’s coming so fast and nobody is really quite ready for it.

“I think I shock a lot of people when i say there are six companies out there that are working on a robotic eye and probably within 12-15 years people will start electively replacing one eye so they can have a robotic eye that can then stream media inside that eye that will be tied directly to their optic nerve, they will be able to see literally with accuracy 100 miles, they will be able to see germs on your partner’s body. We are talking about upgrades that people are going to get because they are so much more functional, in the same way that we now carry a smart phone everywhere with us. This is not science fiction anymore – this is very, very close.”•

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david-milch

Gifted television writer David Milch gambled and lost so much that he pretty much ruined schadenfreude for everyone.

The former Yale Literature professor, who co-created of NYPD Blue and Deadwood, had lavish homes, $100 million and the esteem of the industry, but a rabid racetrack habit has left him with only the latter. He continues working as he lives in shadows of his former life, subsisting on a $40-a-week allowance and hopelessly in arrears to the IRS. Milch is the subject of a jaw-dropping Hollywood Reporter story by Stephen Galloway with Scott Johnson, which could be called a cautionary tale, except it probably can only be fully understood by those drawn to wagering every last comfort on the nose of a horse. In other words, if you can see yourself in it, you probably won’t be able to see yourself out of it. 

An excerpt:

The writer-producer always was considered brilliant but also eccentric: His writing style consists of dictating his thoughts, sometimes while lying prone on the ground, often surrounded by other writers.

“He’s obviously a genius and extraordinarily talented, and he’s got a fire that burns in him brighter than anyone else,” says horse trainer Darrell Vienna, who helped Milch connect with real-life cowboys and horse wranglers while doing research forDeadwood. “But it can cause a lot of damage. He’s an extraordinary person. He’s insightful in everything he does — people, horses, everything — and he’s very insightful about himself, and therein lies the rub. He’s a person of extremes.”

A self-confessed former drug user in the ’80s (“I was a bitter heroin addict at the time,” he told an MIT communications forum in 2006) as well as a gambler, Milch is well-known at racetracks, where he once owned several horses. Racing and gambling were the themes of his HBO series Luck, canceled in 2012 after three horses died during filming.

“He was one of the most devoted gamblers,” says John Perrotta, an author and adviser on that show. “He was very serious about it, and he was a very good handicapper.”

Handicapping is the process by which odds are analyzed in a way that improves the chances of winning. You can, for instance, make what’s called an “exotic bet,” in which you guess which two or three or four horses will be the first to cross the finish line and in what order. The formation of these exotic bets was the subject of the first scenes of Luck, which Milch once described as his “love letter” to horse racing. Perrotta says they came directly from his experiences with the writer.

One acquaintance familiar with Milch’s gambling habits describes a man who couldn’t stop betting once he got started: “He was crazy. He’d bet thousands and thousands of dollars. He’d bet every race.”•

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batmanatm9

Silicon Valley is not known for its socialist heart, but many of the region’s Libertarians, Singularitarians and such have embraced Universal Basic Income. Why? As Nathan Schneider explains in a Vice piece, decoupling work and income in this manner appeals to the tech set because it’s a neat, bureaucracy-dismantling way of treating a number of societal problems. It’s “VC for the people,” as one subject in the article explains. Of course, that doesn’t mean most of them necessarily support higher taxes on capital to foot the bill.

In addition to the puzzle-solving ardor of the community, I think another factor driving the UBI talk is technologists believing in their own world-changing prowess, expecting their wonderful AI inventions to de-employ us in short order, a scenario that’s possible though not guaranteed. The Digital Age Prometheans worry not only about the fire they deliver but also they ashes that result. 

I do believe, however, there are some noble people in the industry troubled by the income inequality they’ve likely exacerbated and truly want to mitigate the situation, which they feel may grow exponentially worse if robots rapidly get better. And there also those who just want to obviate the so-called welfare state.

From Schneider:

As if Silicon Valley hasn’t given us enough already, it may have to start giving us all money. The first indication I got of this came one evening last summer, when I sat in on a meet-up of virtual-currency enthusiasts at a hackerspace a few miles from the Googleplex, in Mountain View, California. After one speaker enumerated the security problems of a promising successor to Bitcoin, the economics blogger Steve Randy Waldman got up to speak about “engineering economic security.” Somewhere in his prefatory remarks he noted that he is an advocate of universal basic income—the idea that everyone should get a regular and substantial paycheck, no matter what. The currency hackers arrayed before him glanced up from their laptops at the thought of it, and afterward they didn’t look back down. Though Waldman’s talk was on an entirely different subject, basic income kept coming up during a Q&A period—the difficulties of implementing it and whether anyone would work ever again.

Around that time I had been hearing calls for basic income from more predictable sources on the East Coast—followers of the anarchist anthropologist David Graeber and the editors of the socialist magazine Jacobin, among others. The idea certainly has a leftist ring to it: an expansion of the social-welfare system to cover everyone. A hard-cash thank-you just for being alive. A way to quit the job you despise and—to take the haters’ favorite example—surf.

Basic income, it turns out, is in the peculiar class of political notions that can warm Leninist and libertarian hearts alike. Though it’s an essentially low-tech proposal, it appeals to Silicon Valley’s longing for simple, elegant algorithms to solve everything. Supporters list the possible results: It can end poverty and inequality with hardly any bureaucracy. With more money and less work to do, we might even spew less climate-disrupting carbon.•

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Donald Trump, John Gotti with a Southern strategy, is considering telling the Pope to go scratch his ass with a broken milk bottle.

The other “anti-establishment” candidate, Bernie Sanders, who’s been in D.C. for decades, has become a darling of the Left for identifying serious problems with healthcare, prison overcrowding, etc., and offering sweeping solutions often based on Paul Ryan-esque fuzzy math. The Un-Hillary has been aided in his shocking ascendancy by a cadre of mostly young coders who’ve enabled the eldest candidate in the race to be the most app-friendly. The unsolicited volunteers work remotely and are usually not familiar with one another except virtually.

From Darren Samuelsohn at Politico:

Late last spring, inspired to action by what he was hearing from a renegade Democratic candidate named Bernie Sanders, Jon Hughes began building a website. Hughes, then a 29-year-old father in southern Oregon, didn’t have any connection to the Sanders campaign; in fact, the last presidential candidate he’d been interested in was Ron Paul back in 2012. But he knew how to code and built a page that does a very simple but important job: You click on your location, and it tells you where and when to vote in the Democratic primary or caucus. It launched in June.

Today his site, voteforbernie.org, has landed over 2 million unique views. It’s the top search hit not only for people who want to support Sanders, but for anyone simply googling “how to vote in the primaries.” All across America, people looking simply to participate in the primaries are now directed straight to a site that asks, in large and florid lettering, “Will you be able to Vote for Bernie?”
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The site is just one of the dozens of websites, tools and apps built by coders lining up behind Bernie Sanders, often people—like Hughes— with no affiliation to the campaign at all. Behind Sanders’ astonishing success in the primaries so far stands a coterie of more than 1,000 volunteer techies pumping out innovations like this at a rate of about one new app a week.

If viral videos, data analytics, Twitter and meet-up pages were the big breakthroughs of past presidential elections, 2016 could very well go down as the year of the app. And no one has been a bigger beneficiary than Sanders, an anti-establishment independent-turned-Democrat with legions of code-savvy, unpaid helpers. Many of his volunteer coders are under-30 political neophytes first drawn to Sanders through a fan-driven Reddit page, an online message board that is far and away the largest for anyone in the 2016 field. With more than 188,000 subscribers, the SandersForPresident subReddit is more popular than pages featuring cars, beer or even porn.•

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americanpharoah

Hung, quite appropriately, like a horse, American Pharoah, the 2015 Triple Crown winner, is now an expensive trick.

The animal has been retired to a life of studding, earning his owners a cool 200K a pop to impregnate mares. Very interested parties pray he’ll sire the next generation of racers to make a home of the winner’s circle, not a sure thing for even a great champion, genetics still being an inscrutable thing. It’s a sensitive business to coerce the mating process at a specified time between two gigantic beasts, no matter how willing they are, and a stumble could mean a broken leg or some similar disaster. With so much money at stake–both the current payoff and potential ones in the future–steps must be taken to ensure success.

In a Businessweek piece, Monte Reel goes behind the scenes to learn how the delicate balance is struck. The opening:

The verb to use in polite company is “cover.” The stud covers the mare. Or: About 11 months after she was covered, the mare gave birth to a healthy foal.

The deed itself, here in the hills of Kentucky horse country, is governed by strict rules. Section V, paragraph D of The American Stud Book Principal Rules and Requirements is clear: “Any foal resulting from or produced by the processes of Artificial Insemination, Embryo Transfer or Transplant, Cloning or any other form of genetic manipulation not herein specified, shall not be eligible for registration.” No shortcuts, no gimmicks. All thoroughbreds must be the product of live, all-natural, horse-on-horse action.

Herein lurks tension and peril. When one 1,300-pound animal climbs on top of another, both sacrifice their natural sure-footedness for about 20 seconds of knee-buckling magic. Necks can be bitten, causing legs to kick and prompting centers of gravity to shift. An unlucky fall could break a delicate foreleg—a potentially fatal injury for a thoroughbred.

“Things can go wrong,” says Richard Barry, the stallion manager at Ashford Stud, a 2,200-acre farm in Versailles, Ky. “Before any stallion is led into the breeding shed, there’s an awful lot of preparation that has gone on behind the scenes. An awful lot.”

Barry will soon choreograph the most hotly anticipated covering in recent history: American Pharoah’s first coupling with a mare.•

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Luna-9_spacecraft

Americans were first to the moon, but America was not.

The U.S. was the initial–and is still the only–nation to deposit actual humans on the satellite, but the Soviet Union actually soft-landed a people-less spacecraft, the Luna 9, on the moon’s surface, three years before Apollo’s awesome triumph. At that moment, it seemed all but certain that the hammer and sickle would be planted on the moon. The narrative, of course, quickly shifted. Although the Soviet mission helped make that NASA victory possible, teaching us important lessons, the contribution was all but scrubbed from history after the one giant leap for mankind.

In a BBC Future pieceRichard Hollingham recalls the importance of the Luna landing. An excerpt:

February 2016 marks the 50th anniversary of a landing that, at the time, suggested a communist nation really could be the first to claim the Moon for all mankind.

In February 1966, a Russian space probe, Luna 9, made the first controlled ‘soft’ landing on the Moon. The mission was an engineering marvel that helped answer fundamental questions about the lunar surface and paved the way for the first crewed missions.

“In the mid ‘60s the Americans and Soviets were both trying to get to the Moon,” says Doug Millard, space curator at London’s Science Museum, which is currently hosting an exhibition bringing together an unprecedented collection of Russian space artefacts.

“Before you put a human on the Moon you had to land a robotic craft and we tend to forget all the successes from the Soviet side,” he says.

Standing some three metres tall, Luna 9 consisted of a square base with four legs – much like the Apollo Moon lander. On top of this was a vertical cylinder topped by an ovoid dome, resembling the closed petals of a flower.•

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radiotelescope

Life under authoritarianism is…different.

Especially in modern China, which has relocated huge masses of citizens as its made its breakneck transition to an urban society, as insta-cities are filled by fiat. Part of one Guizhou province village is currently being emptied, however, not primarily because of the hurried march from an agrarian economy but because the government wants the land to be a lookout point for ETs. The relatively remote location will be the new home of a ginormous radio telescope watching for alien crafts, the latest salvo in its potentially ambitious space program.

From Edward Wong’s well-written New York Times piece:

BEIJING — More than 9,000 Chinese villagers are leaving their homes to make way for aliens.

It is not a colonization plan from outer space. The Chinese government is relocating thousands of villagers to complete construction by September of the world’s biggest radio telescope, whose intended purpose is to detect signs of extraterrestrial life.

The telescope would be 500 meters, or 1,640 feet, in diameter, by far the largest of its kind in the world. It is called FAST, for Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Telescope, and costs an estimated 1.2 billion renminbi, or $184 million.

The mass relocation was announced on Tuesday in a report by Xinhua, the state news agency. The report said officials were relocating 2,029 families, a total of 9,110 people, living within a three-mile radius of the telescope in the area of Pingtang and Luodian Counties in the southwestern province of Guizhou.

Officials plan to give each person the equivalent of $1,800 for housing compensation, the report said. Guizhou is one of China’s poorest provinces.•

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APTOPIX South Korea National Assembly

Paul Mason, author of Postcapitalism, believes the day might soon come when technology frees us from most forms of labor and one of our dominant economic systems. Corporations can be people-less automatons, driverless-car fleets can own themselves and work can melt into play. The rise of the machines and end of scarcity will depend, he believes, on whether policy and mindset make way for the future. The work ethic as we know it would be among the first casualties. “A low-work society is only a dystopia if the social system is geared to distributing rewards via work,” Mason writes in a new Guardian essay.

AI will likely take longer than many believe in assuming so many tasks, and that’s not just because of political and personal will. But Mason’s scenario is possible in the longer run. In that new order, capitalism would have to be seriously recalibrated, becoming perhaps a piece of a bricolage of systems operating within states.

The opening:

When researchers Frey and Osborne predicted in 2013 that 47% of US jobs were susceptible to automation by 2050, they set off a wave of dystopian concern. But the key word is “susceptible”.

The automation revolution is possible, but without a radical change in the social conventions surrounding work it will not happen. The real dystopia is that, fearing the mass unemployment and psychological aimlessness it might bring, we stall the third industrial revolution. Instead we end up creating millions of low skilled jobs that do not need to exist.

The solution is to begin to de-link work from wages. You can see the beginnings of the separation on any business flight. Men and women hunched over laptops and tablets, elbows so close that if it were a factory it would be closed on health and safety grounds.

But it is a factory, and they are working – some of the time. They flip from spreadsheet to a movie to email to solitaire: nobody sets a timer – unless in one of the time-hoarding professions like law. At the high skill end of the workforce we increasingly work to targets, not time.

But to properly unleash the automation revolution we will probably need a combination of a universal basic income, paid out of taxation, and an aggressive reduction of the official working day.•

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As I’ve argued before, I don’t think wealth inequality is healthy for a society even if everyone’s share is increasing at least a little. Having too much money concentrated in too few hands can lead to uneven power of one sort or another. British Labour politician Peter Mandelson said that he was “relaxed about people getting filthy rich as long as they pay their taxes.” The thing is, the filthy rich often find a way to bend government to their will, allowing them to unfairly lighten their tax load.

That being said, I don’t reflexively think wealth inequality is the root of all evil. In a Fast Company piece which decimates a strain of Silicon Valley thinking which argues that stark income disparity is actually a good thing, the authors, Jess Rimington, Joanna Levitt Cea and Martin Kirk, present a raft of societal ills linked to wealth inequality. Some seem more plausible than others.

One that stands out as needing closer inspection is infant mortality rate. There were 29.2 deaths per 1,000 U.S. births in 1950, a time of lesser wealth concentration, and 6.1 in 2010 when disparity had ballooned to sickly proportions. Sure, it’s a complicated statistic. There’ve been numerous medical and technological innovations in those six decades, and perhaps without inequality the number would be mercifully lower by now, but that’s not definitely so. If the rate isn’t primarily driven by a huge difference in income, doesn’t that suggest that perhaps a stubborn level of poverty is more the real culprit? Figuring out a way to lift all Americans above a certain floor may be more important than adjusting the ceiling when it comes to this issue. Fairer tax codes could, of course, be part of the answer, but what if such a change made for a more robust middle class but didn’t remedy indigence in any meaningful way? Would that really solve this particular problem? 

As I said, I think income disparity is a general negative, but too readily ascribing all societal ills to it may actually help perpetuate some of them.

An excerpt:

The very heart of the Silicon Valley case is the idea that inequality is not inherently damaging. Far better to let large variations of wealth accumulate without constraint, and instead focus on where it doesn’t—where there is poverty—because, as Graham puts it:

“When the city is turning off your water because you can’t pay the bill, it doesn’t make any difference what Larry Page’s net worth is compared to yours. He might only be a few times richer than you, and it would still be just as much of a problem that your water was getting turned off.”

This is a ringing example of where he uses analytical thinking to misdiagnose systemic forces. What he’s implying in this analogy is that the only relevant consideration is the relative wealth of two individuals at the moment a bill needs to be paid. The number of variables left out dwarf those being considered many times over. One simple example would be race. The median wealth of black households in the U.S. is an astonishing 4.5% of that of white households. This, in turn, points to that other glaringly important variable: political influence. As this 2014 Princeton study showed, America is an oligarchy, run by a small group of wealthy and influential individuals; any resemblance to a democracy is merely an illusion. Racial inequality means that African Americans have a lot less of the only political currency that really matters for securing the equal opportunity they so obviously lack right now: actual currency. Graham’s analogy denies these factors entirely. And you can understand why, given that analytical thinking, with its instinct to squash things together, simply can’t cope with multiple variables.

But more importantly, if he’s wrong about the fact that there is nothing inherently damaging about extreme variations in wealth, his entire argument falls apart.

So let’s be absolutely clear: Anyone arguing that income inequality is not damaging to a society is unequivocally wrong.

To be as brief as possible: there is ample evidence, from a library of studies both within and between countries all around the globe, that shows how inequality is strongly correlated with practically any social problem you might like to choose. High levels of inequality are correlated with lower life expectancy, child well-being, educational attainment, social mobility, waste recycling, and, ironically enough for Silicon Valley investors, inventiveness and innovation. It also correlates to higher rates of infant mortality, obesity, mental illness, use of illegal drugs, teenage pregnancy rates, homicide, fighting and bullying among children, imprisonment rates, and levels of mutual trust between citizens.•

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masdar3Masdar 06 green-cities-masdar-city2

When the planners cancelled the driverless pod cars, I knew there was trouble in Masdar City.

The proposed green oasis on the fringes of Abu Dhabi was supposed to be a zero-carbon technotopia, a city of 50,000 centered around green-tech industry, but ten years after its auspicious beginnings, the entire project may be driving into a ditch like its zippy, futuristic vehicles. From Suzanne Goldenberg at the Guardian:

Years from now passing travellers may marvel at the grandeur and the folly of the futuristic landscape on the edges of Abu Dhabi: the barely occupied office blocks, the deserted streets, the vast tracts of undeveloped land and – most of all – the abandoned dream of a zero-carbon city.

Masdar City, when it was first conceived a decade ago, was intended to revolutionise thinking about cities and the built environment.

Now the world’s first planned sustainable city – the marquee project of the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) plan to diversify the economy from fossil fuels – could well be the world’s first green ghost town.

As of this year – when Masdar was originally scheduled for completion – managers have given up on the original goal of building the world’s first planned zero-carbon city.

Masdar City is nowhere close to zeroing out its greenhouse gas emissions now, even at a fraction of its planned footprint. And it will not reach that goal even if the development ever gets fully built, the authorities admitted.

“We are not going to try to shoehorn renewable energy into the city just to justify a definition created within a boundary,” said Chris Wan, the design manager for Masdar City.

“As of today, it’s not a net zero future,” he said. “It’s about 50%.”

___________________

The great pod-car dream of yore.

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I’ve read articles that attempt to divine what type of justice Antonin Scalia would have preferred to succeed him, and my only response is “who cares?” That’s not because I had such sharp political disagreements with the late jurist and thought his “constitutional purity” was anything but, because I feel the same way about every member of the bench. These people are public servants, not royalty, despite the esteem of the position and the lifetime appointment. None of them should have any say in “hiring” their replacements.

The modern court has often seemed a very detached and at times arrogant body, one positioned at a great distance from the American public. That may be because the members emerge from such a narrow pool, the Eastern Corridor / Harvard-Yale / Federal Appeals Courts circuit, which is the reality of almost all the justices, right, middle and left. Operating from such a remove has its pluses ad minuses. No one should want to turn the justices into politicians prone to the vicissitudes of the endless media cycle, but the air they breathe should neither be so rarified. 

In a smart NYT Magazine piece, Emily Bazelon encourages a new type of diversity that almost always goes unmentioned when the important matters of race and gender are considered. Although she suggests President Obama use the current vacancy to consider those with unconventional credentials, that likely won’t happen with Scalia’s replacement, so factious the current landscape is. Bazelon, though, feels it might actually help neutralize polarization.

The opening:

Seven of the eight justices on the Supreme Court today all come from the federal appeals courts. (So did Justice Antonin Scalia, who died Saturday.) Only Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, who was a judge in California, served outside the East Coast cities of Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Washington. All eight attended law school at Harvard or Yale. None ever held elected office. Today’s court is “in some ways the most insulated and homogenous in American history,” as Adam Liptak wrote in 2009.

And so, here’s a question for President Obama, as he and his advisers are making their short list and checking it twice: Should the next justice bring a diversity of professional experience not currently on the court? Would a nominee who comes from outside the bench excite the country?

If every justice must have credentials like those currently serving on the Supreme Court, then the definition of who is qualified has become exceedingly narrow. “At a time when Americans are worried that the elite are running the country, and not doing a good job of it, this is the most elite group you could have,” says Benjamin Barton, a law professor at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, who has studied the pre-appointment experience of Supreme Court justices. “And it didn’t used to be this way.”

That’s true.•

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postpaper

In the daily scrum of vying for scoops and working in regular digs at the rival tabloid, the New York Daily News, Keith J. Kelly, the New York Post media columnist, rarely writes of the big-picture of the besieged industry, which is a shame. Nothing against a beat that traffics in granular details, but reading Ashley Baker’s very good Fashion Week Daily Q&A with Kelly makes me wish he had an outlet for more long-form analysis of the business. He clearly has plenty to contribute on that end that never sees the light of day. Two excerpts from the interview follow.

_____________________________

Question:

Do you expect to see the departure of a lot of print titles in the next five to 10 years?

Keith J. Kelly:

The good ones will survive, but if you were hanging in third of fourth place…in the boom time, you could have done it, but not now. At the same time, I think a lot of digital titles will go away, too. It used to be that you could put something up and just get traffic, but that’s not the case anymore—you need to have quality traffic, and results. On the ad front, which will help print, is the propensity for ad blockers on the digital side. It’s a bigger problem in Europe; it’s coming here. They’re thinking that, like, 15 percent of the ads now don’t get seen by anybody—some of them are only seen by robots. In the past year, advertisers have really stepped up the need to prove that these ads are going to be seen. That’s going to put pressure on digital. The other problem that I think a lot of digital sites and ad agencies have is that they’re all enamored with the latest technology—Snapchat and Instagram—and I think to some extent, they’ve lost track of the purpose of an ad. The purpose of an ad is to make you want to buy something—a watch, a car, a pair of shoes. A three-second view of something you’re clicking off of isn’t going to create that desire. Secretly, the ad agencies know that’s one of the problems; that’s why they’re not paying a lot for the ads.

_____________________________

Question:

Do you think Anna Wintour’s [at Condé Nast] for the long-term?

Keith J. Kelly:

If she goes, it will be her choice to go. If she wants it, it’s hers to keep. Fashion being such an important part of the Condé empire, she’s the No. 1 fashion person. Bob Sauerberg is a person in a suit who worked on consumer marketing and circulation—he’s not going to impress anybody in a fashion meeting. He’s well-dressed and everything, and he’s a nice guy, but Anna’s the person they want to see. As long as that’s the case, she’s there.

Question:

Or as long as the Newhouses still own Condé Nast.

Keith J. Kelly:

Well, if the Newhouses sell, all those high-priced editors will go. There’s no way they’re sticking around. If an outside investor comes in and looks at those salaries, he’s going to say, “Here’s a way to get rid of 10 or 20 million in cost.”•

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fab1

“It is not yet possible to create a computerized voice that is indistinguishable from a human one for anything longer than short phrases,” writes John Markoff in his latest probing NYT article about technology, this one about “conversational agents.” 

The dream of giving voices like ours to contraptions were realized with varying degrees of success by 19th-century inventors like Joseph Faber and Thomas Edison, who awed their audiences, but the modern attempt is to replace marvel with mundanity, a post-Siri scenario in which the interaction no longer seems novel.

Machines that can listen are the ones that cause the most paranoia, but talking ones that could pass for human would pose a challenge as well. As Markoff notes in the above quote, a truly conversational computer isn’t currently achievable, but it will be eventually. At first we might give such devices a verbal tell to inform people of their non-carbon chat partner, but won’t we ultimately make the conversation seamless? 

In his piece, Markoff surveys the many people trying to make that seamlessness a reality. The opening:

When computers speak, how human should they sound?

This was a question that a team of six IBM linguists, engineers and marketers faced in 2009, when they began designing a function that turned text into speech for Watson, the company’s “Jeopardy!”-playing artificial intelligence program.

Eighteen months later, a carefully crafted voice — sounding not quite human but also not quite like HAL 9000 from the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey — expressed Watson’s synthetic character in a highly publicized match in which the program defeated two of the best human Jeopardy! players.

The challenge of creating a computer “personality” is now one that a growing number of software designers are grappling with as computers become portable and users with busy hands and eyes increasingly use voice interaction.

Machines are listening, understanding and speaking, and not just computers and smartphones. Voices have been added to a wide range of everyday objects like cars and toys, as well as household information “appliances” like the home-companion robots Pepper and Jibo, and Alexa, the voice of the Amazon Echo speaker device.

A new design science is emerging in the pursuit of building what are called “conversational agents,” software programs that understand natural language and speech and can respond to human voice commands.

However, the creation of such systems, led by researchers in a field known as human-computer interaction design, is still as much an art as it is a science.

It is not yet possible to create a computerized voice that is indistinguishable from a human one for anything longer than short phrases that might be used for weather forecasts or communicating driving directions.

Most software designers acknowledge that they are still faced with crossing the “uncanny valley,” in which voices that are almost human-sounding are actually disturbing or jarring.•

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Following up on yesterday’s post about America’s foundering infrastructure, here’s a section from a New Republic piece by Tom Vanderbilt, who, in this segment, directs his ire at NYC’s woeful highways and information superhighway, overwhelmed by population density, poor planning and lack of resources. I could say that the city’s success has come with a heavy price, drawing more transplants and tourists than it could handle, except that I’ve live here my whole life and the infrastructure has always been an ordeal, in good times as well as bad.

Vanderbilt riffs off of the American Society of Civil Engineers’ harsh grades for our bridges and tunnels and Henry Petroski’s new book, The Road Taken. The excerpt:

As an interest group, we might expect a certain amount of grade inflation—or, in this case, deflation—from the ASCE; proclaiming the country’s infrastructure to be in decent working order is not likely, after all, to generate much work for engineers. But it does not take a vested interest to sense that America, whose roads and rails were once the envy of the developed world, has somehow gone astray.

To take New York City—where I live and where Petroski grew up—as an example, despite being constantly told I live in the center of the world, when it comes to infrastructure, I am constantly wishing I were elsewhere. When the subway comes screeching along, tinnitus on braking metal, I long for the silent rubber tires used by trains in Mexico City or Montreal. When I salmon against the crushing stream of pedestrian and bicycle traffic on the stingy walkway of the Brooklyn Bridge, I long for Brisbane’s capacious, car-free Kurilpa Bridge. Flying into any Gotham airport, the convenient, legible urban transport links one finds in Amsterdam or Geneva are absent. There are cities in Kansas, thanks to Google Fiber, that currently have better bandwidth than the nation’s media capital. Growing up in Brooklyn, many decades ago, Petroski notes that he and his childhood friends would occasionally go down the hill, from Park Slope, until they ran into the Gowanus Canal, “stagnant and odorous.” In 2016, the canal is still stagnant and odorous, an EPA Superfund site, even as glassy luxury condos rise on its fetid banks.

“America,” argues Petroski, gleaning a hoary image from Robert Frost, “is now at a fork in the road representing choices that must be made regarding the nation’s infrastructure.”•

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The fear of automation causing widespread technological unemployment is probably only founded if the future arrives far faster now than it did in the past. That’s possible, given the current push on many fronts in AI. Driverless being perfected and instituted in rapid fashion means farewell to eight million or so jobs in trucking alone, not to mention taxis, limos, delivery, etc. Is it a disaster for Labor if it happens in two decades but not in four? The flip side is that it would probably be a body blow to the economy if such things happened too slowly or not at all. Innovation plus nimble policy is probably the only answer, but not an easy one in our jagged political landscape.

From Andrea Korte at the American Association for the Advancement for Science:

Artificial intelligence experts predict that intelligent and semi-intelligent autonomous systems — such as self-driving cars and autonomous drones — “will march into our society” in the next two to three years, with driving expected to be fully automated in 25 years, a panel of experts said at a 13 February news briefing at the 2016 AAAS Annual Meeting.

“For the first time, we’re going to see these machines and systems as part of our everyday life,” said Bart Selman, professor of computer science at Cornell University, citing big changes in the AI field that have spurred a shift toward real-world applications in the last five years, including the ability of computers to see and hear as humans do and to synthesize data and fill in strategies for achieving their programmers’ high-level goals.

With more than a billion dollars spent last year on AI research — more than in the field’s entire history — the experts agreed that AI advances may threaten jobs and uncover a range of legal, regulatory, and ethical issues.

The widespread use of self-driving cars, for instance, is likely to bring about a reduction in car accidents; liability debates as courts determine whether a computer can be held at fault in an accident; and a serious effect on the labor market.

With 10% of U.S. jobs involving the operation of a vehicle, “we can expect the majority of these jobs will simply disappear,” said Moshe Vardi, professor of computer science and director of the Ken Kennedy Institute for Information Technology at Rice University.

Vardi expects that the growing presence of intelligent machines in the workforce will contribute to a phenomenon called “job polarization.” With many high-skilled jobs requiring too much human intelligence and many low-skilled jobs too expensive to automate, those jobs in the middle will be easiest to automate. The disappearance of these jobs will spur “great inequality,” but even in a U.S. presidential election year, the issue is “nowhere on the radar screen,” Vardi said.•

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Ridesharing is good in some ways, but it’s a bad deal for most workers, offering them no protections while destabilizing entrenched industries with guarantees, all in the name of “flexibility.” Anyone who thinks it’s a significant part of the solution for an American labor force that’s been laid low by a myriad of factors probably isn’t driving for Uber or Lyft.

In an Atlantic piece, Lawrence Mishel fires a statistics-supported salvo at the Gig Economy for drawing a great deal of attention while having relatively little impact on American employment, particularly of the positive kind. You could extrapolate forward its place in the U.S. economy as some Silicon Valley enthusiasts like to when trying to bend laws in their favor, but the writer will likely still be correct a decade or two down the line. If I’m wrong and the Gig Economy has truly become ascendant in that time, wow, major policy shifts are going to be necessary.

The opening:

The rise of Uber has convinced many pundits, economists, and policymakers that freelancing via digital platforms is becoming increasingly important to Americans’ livelihood. It has also promoted the idea that new technology—particularly the explosion of platforms enabling the gig economy—will fundamentally alter the future of work.

While Uber and other new companies in the gig economy receive a lot of attention, a look at Uber’s own data about its drivers’ schedules and pay reveals them to be much less consequential than most people assume. In fact, dwelling on these companies too much distracts from the central features of work in America that should be prominent in the public discussion: a disappointingly low minimum wage, lax overtime rules, weak collective-bargaining rights, and excessive unemployment, to name a few. When it comes to the future of work, these are the aspects of the labor market that deserve the most attention. 

Curiously, the best evidence of Uber’s relatively small impact on the American labor market comes from data released and publicized by the company itself. David Plouffe, an Uber strategist, began a recent speech by saying, “I want to talk today about the future of work—specifically, the fact that a growing number of people are engaging in flexible and freelance work because of the sharing economy or through on-demand platforms.” He highlighted the large number of people driving for Uber, saying, “Uber currently has 1.1 million active drivers on the platform globally. Here in the U.S., there are more than 400,000 active drivers taking at least four trips a month.” As he went on to list the number of drivers in the biggest American cities, he said, “The numbers show just how attractive this type of work is to people around the country.”

In other words, Plouffe is sending the message that Uber is very big and growing, and he portrays his company and other companies in the gig economy as increasingly important to the United States’ economic future. But these claims are undermined by the relatively minor contribution Uber makes to its drivers’ incomes.•

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What is it like waking up on Mars? None of us can say, precisely, of course, but it’s clear that within some sort of dome, it would be challenging, and on the outside of such an artificial habitat it would be deadly. 

To get a better idea of life on our neighboring planet, Sheyna Gifford, a medical doctor, is among a half-dozen faux-stronauts embedded for a year and a day in a dome on a Hawaiian island (and inside spacesuits when venturing outside of it). It’s a reasonable approximation for bubble life on Mars. though the spectre of death is not, absent a huge disaster, as ever-present as it would be were it not a simulation.

She’s written a wonderful Aeon essay about the first half of the adventure, which has been full of technical challenges, including an earthly one: a crush of media after the release of The Martian. Given her specialty, Gifford has insights into the improvised medical techniques required in “space.” One great line: “On sMars, where there is neither money nor anywhere to spend it, value is based almost solely on usefulness: of an object, a task, even a person.”

The opening:

I don’t quite remember what it’s like to wake up on Earth. Five months after ‘landing on Mars’, my day begins in a white dome in the middle of a red lava field, and I wonder: do we have enough power to turn on the heat? Will the weather let us suit up and check the greenhouses? Are my air fans going to work?

These thoughts circle in my brain as I pad downstairs for that first cup of something warm. The news that awaits me there will be in watts, percentage humidity and degrees Celsius, telling me what happened in and around our habitat overnight, and how much power we’re likely to have for the rest of today. I will hear water churning in the hydroponic systems, along with the hum of the lurid pink growing lights in the biology lab. I will see the same crewmates, kitchen and two-foot round porthole I’ve seen every morning for five months. That view of the jagged rocks beyond is a constant reminder that our world – this world we’re sharing for one year as a test run for life on Mars – is hostile and mysterious.

Let’s be clear: simulated Mars (or sMars) is technically your world.•

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I’m not alone in thinking Mark Cuban a strange, unsavory guy who fell ass-backwards into wealth during Web 1.0 and somehow thinks that qualifies him as an expert on all things. Only in America.

That being said, he’s probably no more foolish or crass than most of the candidates running for President. In a recent blog post, the Mavericks’ owner said a lot of obvious things as if they were bolts of lightning from the heavens that only he has received, but then again, even basic wisdom is missing from Trump, Carson, etc. Cuban certainly is right that the average candidate has little knowledge of technology beyond 140 characters. A couple of excerpts::

2. SocioCapitalism is and has been Capitalism for Millennials. You haven’t been paying attention. Bernie has.

If you watch Shark Tank  you may have noticed a trend.  Entrepreneurs don’t just want to make a profit, they want to make a profit and share their success with those less fortunate.  I first saw this in the mid 90’s when Rob Glaser founded Progressive Networks and promised 5 pct of their profits to those less fortunate.

We saw this type of philanthropy gain interest with Tom’s Shoes and their One for One program.

Today, charitable give aways, or inclusive hiring  as part of a product or service purchase is more than just common place. We see it on Shark Tank in almost every pitch from a 20-something entrepreneur. Several of my recent Shark Tank deals reflect this trend, RRiveterCombat Flip FlopsLiving Christmas Trees to name just a few.

Not only are 20-something entrepreneurs starting companies with a social component , 20 – Something consumers are EXPECTING a social component from companies they do business with.

So how can it be a surprise that Millennials are excited about Bernie Sanders ? Millennials EXPECT capitalism to reflect a socialist element.  I don’t think Bernie knew this going in. Either way, any candidate that expects to get millennial votes needs to understand that your father’s capitalism is not what how they understand the world.  Soci0-Capitalism is who they are and what this country will be. Whether you like it or not.  

To each according to their ability, from each support for those in need.

____________________________

4. It’s a problem that all the candidates appear to be technologically illiterate.

Using or not using email, being on social media, neither reflect a knowledge of technology.  No one is saying they have to be hard core geeks, but the future of this country, our jobs, economy, security, culture, lifestyle and more are intertwined with advanced technology. How can you hope to strategize and create solutions to issues we face without having more than a basic understanding of technology?

Wars won’t be fought with bombs and bullets as much as bytes and advanced technologies. Homeland security will be much more about machine vision, learning and Artificial Intelligence than walls.  The future of healthcare and its cost will be much more about personalized medicine and CRISPR than trying to defund Obamacare. Do our candidates realize that when it comes to hacking, there are only 2 kinds of  companies and government agencies, those who have been hacked, and those who don’t know they have been hacked ? And what about our stock markets  ? Does anyone understand what is going on in the markets and how technology has completely upended companies ability to raise capital publicly and undermined the confidence our citizens have in our markets ? Financial terrorism is more than just a possibility.

This isn’t about the age of the candidates. It’s about their knowledge. None has given us any reason to believe they could make a decision on the technology used by a tiny business let alone the country.

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It certainly wouldn’t benefit the American Society of Civil Engineers to slap an “A” grade on every bridge in the U.S., but I don’t think many doubt the organization’s dismal grades for our infrastructure. In a NYRB piece, Elizabeth Drew reviews a raft of books on the topic, including Henry Petroski’s The Road Taken: The History and Future of America’s Infrastructure.

Drew shares small, interesting details (there are still wooden pipes working beneath the White House) and big-picture fears (only calamity may force us to catch up to much of the rest of the world). On the latter topic, she surmises that “it may require even more widespread paralyzed traffic, the collapse of numerous bridges, and perhaps a revolt in parts of the country that have inadequate broadband.” Well, let’s hope not. She also surveys the current Presidential candidates’ plans for remaking our roads and airports, uncovering a lot of fuzzy math.

An excerpt:

The water pipes underneath the White House are said to still be made of wood, as are some others in the nation’s capital and some cities across the country. We admire Japan’s and France’s “bullet trains” that get people to their destination with remarkable efficiency, but many other nations have them as well, including Russia, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. A friend of mine recently rode on the Turkish bullet train and noted that the coffee in his full cup didn’t spill. Last year, Japan demonstrated its new maglev train, which, using electromagnets, levitates above the tracks, and can go about an amazing 375 miles per hour, making it the fastest train in the world. The fastest commercially used maglev, in Shanghai, goes up to 288 miles per hour. But the United States hasn’t a single system that meets all the criteria of high-speed rail. President Obama has proposed a system of high-speed railroads, which has gone nowhere in Congress.

When it comes to providing the essentials of a modern society, it has to be said that we’re a backward country. California Governor Jerry Brown, a longtime visionary, has initiated the building of a high-speed rail system between Los Angeles and San Francisco; one high-speed rail system scheduled to come into service soon to carry people between the wealthy cities of Dallas and Houston will be privately financed. (Shopping and business made easier.) But not many communities have the means to build their own train.

Every four years, the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) conducts a study of where the United States stands in providing needed infrastructure in various sectors. Though the organization obviously has an interest in the creation of more construction jobs, its analyses, based as they are on information from other studies, are taken seriously by nonpartisan experts in the field. In the ASCE’s most recent report card, issued in 2013, the combined sectors received an overall grade of D+. In the various sectors, the grades were: aviation, D; bridges, C+; inland waterways, D–; ports, C; rail, C+; roads, D; mass transit, D; schools, D; hazardous waste, D; drinking water, D. No sector received an A. That none of the infrastructure categories received an F is hardly grounds for celebration.•

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Among U.S. scholars, none seem to casually elide more inconvenient truths than Charles Murray, who somehow claims to love both meritocracy and Sarah Palin. He can make solid sociological points, but he’s also a believer in American myths that were never quite true, especially if you weren’t a white male. 

Murray argues in a WSJ essay that Donald Trump is benefiting from those who feel America is losing its national identity, which he says is rooted in three qualities: egalitarianism, liberty and individualism. Well, cross off the first two for large swaths of the population and even the third during long periods of our history when conformity was the norm. It’s big of Murray to acknowledge that “there are certainly elements of racism and xenophobia in Trumpism”–you don’t say, Chuck?–but he sees it as subplot rather than driving narrative.

His description of wealthy Americans “seceding from the mainstream” is limited by his blinders, but there is value in the passage. Citizens without money being thought of as “losers” is often a sad reality. Oddly enough, it’s very Trumpian.

An excerpt:

America also retained a high degree of social and cultural heterogeneity in its communities. Tocqueville wrote of America in the 1830s as a place where “the more opulent citizens take great care not to stand aloof from the people.” That continued well into the 20th century, even in America’s elite neighborhoods. In the 1960 census, the median income along Philadelphia’s Main Line was just $90,000 in today’s dollars. In Boston’s Brookline, it was $75,000; on New York’s Upper East Side, just $60,000. At a typical dinner party in those neighborhoods, many guests would have had no more than a high-school diploma.

In the years since, the new upper class has evolved a distinctive culture. For a half-century, America’s elite universities have drawn the most talented people from all over the country, socialized them and often married them off to each other. Brains have become radically more valuable in the marketplace. In 2016, a dinner party in those same elite neighborhoods consists almost wholly of people with college degrees, even advanced degrees. They are much more uniformly affluent. The current median family incomes for the Main Line, Brookline and the Upper East Side are about $150,000, $151,000 and $203,000, respectively.

And the conversation at that dinner party is likely to be completely unlike the conversations at get-togethers in mainstream America. The members of the new upper class are seldom attracted to the films, TV shows and music that are most popular in mainstream America. They have a distinctive culture in the food they eat, the way they take care of their health, their child-rearing practices, the vacations they take, the books they read, the websites they visit and their taste in beer. You name it, the new upper class has its own way of doing it.

Another characteristic of the new upper class—and something new under the American sun—is their easy acceptance of being members of an upper class and their condescension toward ordinary Americans. Try using “redneck” in a conversation with your highly educated friends and see if it triggers any of the nervousness that accompanies other ethnic slurs. Refer to “flyover country” and consider the implications when no one asks, “What does that mean?” Or I can send you to chat with a friend in Washington, D.C., who bought a weekend place in West Virginia. He will tell you about the contempt for his new neighbors that he has encountered in the elite precincts of the nation’s capital.

For its part, mainstream America is fully aware of this condescension and contempt and is understandably irritated by it. American egalitarianism is on its last legs.

While the new upper class was seceding from the mainstream, a new lower class was emerging from within the white working class, and it has played a key role in creating the environment in which Trumpism has flourished.•

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I think there’s no doubt that if our species soldiers on long enough that we’ll eventually solve consciousness, we’ll understand how the brain–that mysterious organ–works. It’s a monumental, unsolvable problem until it isn’t anymore.

The question is how we’ll arrive at that knowledge, whether it will be by figuring out the process theoretically or by collecting data and putting together the granular pieces. In “How the Brain Is Computing the Mind,” an Edge piece, Ed Boyden, MIT neuroengineer, opts for the latter strategy.

An excerpt:

The approach I would like to take is to go get the data. Let’s see how the cells in the brain can communicate with each other. Let’s see how these networks take sensation and combine that information with feelings and memories and so forth to generate the outputs, decisions and thoughts and movements. And then, one of two possibilities will emerge.

One will be that patterns can be found, motifs can be mined, you can start to see sense in this morass of data. The second might be that it’s incomprehensible, that the brain is this enormous bag of tricks and while you can simulate it brute force in a computer, it’s very hard to extract simpler representations from those datasets.                 

In some ways, it has to be the former because it’s strange that we can predict our behaviors. People walk through a city, they communicate, they see things, there are commonalities in the human experience. So that’s a clue; that’s a clue that it’s not an arbitrary morass of complexity that we’re not going to ever make sense of. Of course, being a pessimist, we should still always hold open the possibility that it will be incomprehensible. But the fact that we can talk in language, that we see and design shapes and that people can experience pleasure in common, that suggests that there is some convergence that it’s not going to be infinitely complex and that we will be able to make sense of it.•

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Donald Trump is measuring the White House windows for curtains, when he’s not busy measuring his penis. 

There’s long been an argument that exorbitant wealth inequality doesn’t matter if the poorest among us (a widening group) see their standard of living improve somewhat while a few have theirs increase exponentially. Everyone is getting better, so who cares?

First, that balance seems a rare thing, and even if it can be achieved, a small number will be able to tilt power in their favor at will. Second, when things go bust, and they always do eventually, those at the lower end are hurt inordinately. Things then can get ugly, when reality gets ragged, and not only are scapegoats sought but so are those who can point them out. 

A nativist seems appealing in that unhappy situation. A fascist, even. Where have you gone, Benito Mussolini? A nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

From Edward McClelland at Salon:

Donald Trump stepped into the gymnasium at New Hampshire’s Plymouth State University to the opening riff of The Beatles’ “Revolution.” Never mind that it’s a song mocking the pretensions of self-styled revolutionaries. Donald Trump does not do nuance. Donald Trump does bold, garish strokes. The song is loud and it’s got the word “revolution” in it. That’s what Donald Trump wants.
 
It was the day after the last debate before the New Hampshire primary, but Trump didn’t want to brag about his performance. He wanted to talk about how “rich donors and special interests” had hogged all the tickets, leaving college students outside in the snow. The crowd, waving signs that read “The Silent Majority Stands With Trump,” booed loudly.

“I look at these people who have tremendous money,” Trump said. “They’re wasting their money. They should give it to the vets. It’s the special interests: people who represent insurance companies, oil companies, drug companies. I’m their worst nightmare, because I’m not taking their money. I’m richer than they are. I don’t need your money. I need your vote.”

Live and in person, Trump is reminiscent of Regis Philbin: an overexcited New Yorker riffing off the top of his head and emphasizing his points with broad hand gestures: the OK sign, the “whaddya-whaddya” open-palmed shrug. Like a lot of people in the crowd, I was there for the Trumpertainment, hoping the most uninhibited performer in American politics would threaten to shoot someone, or make a pussy joke about one of his enemies in the media or the Republican primary. Seeing Trump is like seeing Marilyn Manson, circa 1995: you’re not there for the music.•

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Every decade or so when the wounds heal and painful lessons are forgotten, venture capital will pour into food-delivery startups trying to execute the Web 1.0 business model of Urbanfetch and Kozmo.com, may they rest in peace.

It seems so simple since pizzerias have done it forever. But pizza shops are largely deeply rooted local businesses that know of a few good men (and women) to deliver their pies. Doing something on a far grander scale requires an abundance of drivers willing to make $5 a pop (plus tips) to deliver meals. And that’s just one problem with the system. Perhaps someday when they’re are plentiful driverless cars or delivery drones, the dream will be realized.

From Mike Isaac in the New York Times:

DoorDash, one of a multitude of start-ups with a mobile app that lets people order and get food sent to their doorsteps, relies on contract drivers like Brian Navarro to make the deliveries. The problem is that workers like Mr. Navarro don’t always stick around.

Mr. Navarro began driving for DoorDash and another delivery start-up, Postmates, in Los Angeles about four months ago. Mr. Navarro, 40, who previously drove for the ride-hailing companies Uber and Lyft, said he had seen plenty of contractors quit DoorDash and other delivery companies during the time he has worked with them.

“Drivers do jump around,” Mr. Navarro said. “The general consensus is that drivers really only stick around for three to six months.”

That churn has become expensive for DoorDash. A large number of drivers left the start-up less than a year after they joined, according to two people who have seen the company’s driver data. DoorDash spends upward of $200 in recruitment and referral bonuses for some drivers, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the details are confidential. Other delivery companies, like Postmates and Instacart, face similar retention challenges, these people said.•

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Silicon Valley oligarchs don’t get much jerkier than Marc Andreessen, a real toolbox who has to bury beneath his arrogance perfectly reasonable people who disagree with him. You’re not simply wrong if you worry that machine learning may lead to technological unemployment–you’re a dope worthy of scorn. 

Andreessen stepped into it in a big way a few days ago with a tone-deaf tweet about India, after the country embraced net neutrality and blocked a Facebook app. Instead of arguing the move would harm the developing nation and explain why, the venture capitalist sent out 140 callous characters of pro-colonialism. As if billionaires didn’t have a bad enough name already.

It’s great that the shitstorm that followed made Andreesen withdraw his comments and apologize profusely, but where there’s no sense of humility, there are likely no lasting lessons learned. 

From Nellie Bowles in the Guardian:

When the news came that India had rejected Facebook, board member and investor Andreessen tweeted the missive that echoed around the world: “Anti-Colonialism has been economically catastrophic for India for decades. Why stop now?”

One sunny San Francisco day later – after Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg was forced to publicly disavow the tweet – Sharma was calling in on Arvind Gupta, who invests in and guides a group of early stage startups at his accelerator IndieBio. Their conversation quickly shifted to Free Basics and Andreessen’s message.

Gupta said he felt Facebook’s stumble was partly due to distance and being out of touch with Indian people.

“It’s easy to think this is a good idea 5,000 miles away in your nice apartment,” Gupta said.

Sharma saw it as part of a broader issue of homogeneity in Silicon Valley, a region run by a narrow set of oligarchs who famously eschew hiring women or people of color.

“Why is the Valley suddenly so tone deaf? Well, look how badly the Valley does on inclusion in hiring. Bias is the norm here,” Sharma said. “Why is the Indian user any less capable than anyone else? Why do they have different needs than you do? They don’t. But that thinking is all part of the same problem.”•

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