Elon Musk

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The more EV makers in the race with Tesla to create the first widely affordable long-range electric car, the better. Right now Elon Musk’s main competitor in GM; the former cannot lose and the latter can ill afford to. From Steve LeVine at Quartz:

“One of the hottest clashes in technology pits two pathmakers in the new era of electric cars—Tesla and General Motors. Both are developing pure electrics that cost roughly $35,000, travel 200 miles on a single charge, and appeal to the mass luxury market.

The stakes are enormous. Most electrics have less than 100 miles of range. Experts regard 200 miles as a tipping point, enough to cure many potential electric-car buyers of ‘range anxiety,’ the fear of being stranded when their battery expires. If GM and Tesla crack this, sales of individual electrics could jump from 2,000 or 3,000 vehicles a month to 15 to 20 times that rate, shaking up industries from cars to oil, which were until now certain that large-scale acceptance of electrics was perhaps decades away. 

It is a substantial gamble for both companies. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has more or less bet his company on the contest. GM’s existence is not in jeopardy if it loses, but the outcome could still determine its place in the next generation of automaking.

The potential prize is not only profit, but outright technology leadership—the intangible aura that made Apple under Steve Jobs an outsized triumph. In this respect, the parvenu Tesla—just a decade old—holds the advantage. Musk’s first two models, with their grace, attitude and electronic showmanship, have dazzled critics, buyers and especially Wall Street. GM has impressed critics, too, with its Chevy Volt, which led the advent of plug-in hybrids, but there are doubts that it can best Musk in direct competition. However, if it can show it is generally Tesla’s equal, it would achieve unexpected street cred, while Musk would appear much more mortal.”

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From “2050 and the Future of Infrastructure,” Thomas Frey’s ImpactLab piece, the section on tube-transportation networks, something that’s been dreamed of since the Victorian Age:

“When Tesla Motors CEO, Elon Musk, mysteriously leaked that he was working on his Hyperloop Project, the combination of secrecy, cryptic details, and his own flair for the dramatic all contributed to the media frenzy that followed.

Leading up to this announcement was his growing anxiety over California’s effort to build a very expensive high-speed rail line between Los Angeles and San Francisco with outdated technology.

While the Musk media train was picking up steam, several reporters pointed out a similar effort by Daryl Oster and his Longmont, Colorado-based company, ET3, to build a comparable tube transportation system that was much further along.

Indeed both are working on what will likely be the next generation of transportation where specially designed cars are placed into sealed tubes and shot, much like rockets, to their destination. While high-speed trains are breaking the 300 mph speed barrier, tube transportation has the potential to make speeds of 4,000 mph a common everyday occurrence.

As Daryl Oster likes to call it, ‘space travel on earth.’

Even though tube travel like this will beat every other form of transportation in terms of speed, power consumption, pollution, and safety, the big missing element is its infrastructure, a tube network envisioned to combine well over 100,000 miles of connected links.

While many look at this and see the lack of infrastructure as a huge obstacle, at this point in time it is just the opposite, the biggest opportunity ever.

Constructing the tube network will be the biggest infrastructure project the earth has ever seen, with a projected 50-year build-out employing in excess of 100 million people along the way.”

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When I first started taking autonomous vehicles seriously four years ago, I had two hesitations about them even if the software could be worked out:

1) Would Americans, who have long loved the power of being kings of the road, surrender the wheel any sooner than they’d surrender their guns?

2) Couldn’t a hacker force 300 robocars on a Los Angeles freeway to simultaneously suddenly turn left when they weren’t supposed to?

I think number one has been answered in the affirmative, with driverless vehicles so incentivized financially that the majority of us will choose autonomous and use fleets of robocabs, perhaps sacrificing not just the steering wheel but ownership of the whole car.

The answer to the second question is still in flux and likely always will be, with automakers and software developers needing to stay a mile ahead of the hackers. From Danny Yadron at the Wall Street Journal:

“Tesla is one of the only household corporate names with an official presence this year at Def Con, an annual security conference held in Las Vegas, where attendees try to hack the hotel elevators and press room. The company is here courting hackers who can help it find holes in the software that controls its cars. It’s looking to hire 20 to 30 security researchers from Def Con alone, Ms. Paget says. Moreover, hackers who report bugs to Tesla get a platinum-colored ‘challenge coin.’ If they show up at a Tesla factory and give the security team a heads-up, they get a free tour.

Tesla’s presence at Def Con points to a growing concern among automakers: As they connect vehicles to the Internet, bad guys could find a way in.

In one presentation this week, two researchers showed how some cars, such as Chrysler Group’s 2014 Jeep Cherokee, have Wi-Fi and Bluetooth communication systems on the same network as their brakes or automatic parallel parking programs. In theory, hackers could infiltrate a car’s communication system to control its physical maneuvers, said Charlie Miller, one of the researchers who has hacked cars in the past.”

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Commenting on philosopher Nick Bostrom’s new book, Elon Musk compared superintelligence to nuclear weapons in terms of the danger it poses us. From Adario Strange at Mashable:

“Nevertheless, the comparison of A.I. to nuclear weapons, a threat that has cast a worrying shadow over much of the last 30 years in terms of humanity’s longevity possibly being cut short by a nuclear war, immediately raises a couple of questions.

The first, and most likely from many quarters, will be to question Musk’s future-casting. Some may use Musk’s A.I. concerns — which remain fantastical to many — as proof that his predictions regarding electric cars and commercial space travel are the visions of someone who has seen too many science fiction films. ‘If Musk really thinks robots might destroy humanity, maybe we need to dismiss his long view thoughts on other technologies.’ Those essays are likely already being written.

The other, and perhaps more troubling, is to consider that Musk’s comparison of A.I. to nukes is apt. What if Musk, empowered by rare insight from his exclusive perch guiding the very real future of space travel and automobiles, really has an accurate line on the future of A.I.?

Later, doubling down on his initial tweet, Musk wrote, ‘Hope we’re not just the biological boot loader for digital superintelligence. Unfortunately, that is increasingly probable.'”

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A company selling thirty-five thousand cars, even one-hundred thousand, would normally be a small deal in annual auto sales, but it does feel like Tesla is starting to move the arrow on electric vehicles a significant distance from EMPTY. Just as hopeful is the giant battery plant that Tesla is creating with Panasonic. The real tell, however, will be when there’s a second, third and fourth competitor for Musk’s machines, when that road begins to crowd. From Charles Fleming at the Los Angeles Times:

“Tesla Motors Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk promised shareholders a dramatic boost in the production of his company’s electric cars, telling investors that Tesla will produce 35,000 cars this year and up to 100,000 in 2015.

Tesla, which reported earnings Thursday, also confirmed that the company has begun construction in Reno, Nev., on the first of possibly several battery factories. That news came hours after Tesla announced that it had entered into a long-term partnership with Panasonic Corp. to produce the vehicles’ lithium-ion batteries.

The $5-billion cost of multiple ‘gigafactory’ locations would be shared by Panasonic, which would be expected to match Tesla’s 40% commitment, with an additional 20% commitment coming from other investors and contributions from governments where the factories will be built.

Earlier reports had said Panasonic could invest between $200 million and $1 billion in the massive facility.

Tesla had said recently that California — where the Palo Alto company started and builds all of its automobiles and components — was competing with Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas for the right to host the factory. As many as 6,500 workers could be employed in the battery plant or plants.”

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Stephen Colbert, preparing for a demotion to network TV, interviews Elon Musk about rockets, Tesla patents and jetpacks.

If one of SpaceX’s reusable rockets should implode over the next few years, will there be a huge overreaction to such an occurrence? Unfortunate, certainly, but it would really be an unsurprising outcome in rocketry, part of the learning curve.

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Elon Musk, whose ambitions are part Edison and part Tesla, just announced he’s building a spaceport in Texas, aiming to send up rockets at an exceptionally fast clip. From Ashlee Vance in Businessweek:

“The new site in Texas, though, would give SpaceX a clean slate to put its unique spin on a spaceport. Knowing Musk, I believe this would mean an ultrafuturistic design coupled with loads of automation. The space industry could certainly benefit from this type of modernization, since it’s still relying, in most cases, on decades-old sites that were mainly built to send up missiles.

The SpaceX spaceport will be in Cameron County, where the company has been gobbling up land not far from the border with Mexico and near the cities of McAllen and Brownsville. The FAA has granted SpaceX approval (pdf) for 12 commercial launches per year on a 56.5 acre parcel of land. SpaceX would mostly be launching its current Falcon 9 rockets and its upcoming Falcon Heavy rockets.

Musk’s ultimate goal is to get to Mars, and he wants to be able to perform several launches a day, so that enough equipment and people could be sent to the planet to sustain life. The Texas site represents the first steps toward perfecting some of the launch technology needed to pull this off.”

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Two exchanges from Buzz Aldrin’s new Ask Me Anything at Reddit. The second human on the moon doesn’t think the first ones on Mars should have a return ticket.

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Question:

Is there any experience on Earth that even compares slightly to having been on the Moon?

Buzz Aldrin:

My first words of my impression of being on the surface of the Moon that just came to my mind was “Magnificent desolation.” The magnificence of human beings, humanity, Planet Earth, maturing the technologies, imagination and courage to expand our capabilities beyond the next ocean, to dream about being on the Moon, and then taking advantage of increases in technology and carrying out that dream – achieving that is magnificent testimony to humanity. But it is also desolate – there is no place on earth as desolate as what I was viewing in those first moments on the Lunar Surface. Because I realized what I was looking at, towards the horizon and in every direction, had not changed in hundreds, thousands of years. Beyond me I could see the moon curving away – no atmosphere, black sky. Cold. Colder than anyone could experience on Earth when the sun is up- but when the sun is up for 14 days, it gets very, very hot. No sign of life whatsoever. That is desolate. More desolate than any place on Earth.”

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Question:

Our nation and our world have been waiting for another monumental achievement by humanity ever since you were a pioneer in the space race and set foot on the Moon. For lack of any serious government effort, I’m rooting for Elon Musk to accomplish this by sending man to Mars. What advice would you give Elon to achieve the ultimate objective of permanence on Mars?

Buzz Aldrin:

There is very little doubt, in my mind, that what the next monumental achievement of humanity will be the first landing by an Earthling, a human being, on the planet Mars. And I expect that within 2 decades of the 5th anniversary of the first landing on the moon, that within 2 decades America will lead an international presence on Planet Mars. Some people may be rooting for Elon – I think he could, with his SpaceX, contribute considerably, enormously, to an international activity not only at the moon but also on Mars. I have considered whether a landing on Mars could be done by the private sector. It conflicts with my very strong idea, concept, conviction, that the first human beings to land on Mars should not come back to Earth. They should be the beginning of a build-up of a colony / settlement, I call it a “permanence.” A settlement you can visit once or twice, come back, and then decide you want to settle. Same with a colony. But you want it to be permanent from the get-go, from the very first. I know that many people don’t feel that that should be done. Some people even consider it distinctly a suicide mission. Not me! Not at all. Because we will plan, we will construct from the moon of Mars, over a period of 6-7 years, the landing of different objects at the landing site that will be brought together to form a complete Mars habitat and laboratory, similar to what has been done at the Moon. Tourism trips to Mars and back are just not the appropriate way for human beings from Earth – to have an individual company, no matter how smart, send people to mars and bring them back, it is VERY very expensive. It delays the obtaining of permanence, internationally. Your question referred to a monumental achievement by humanity – that should not be one private company at all, it should be a collection of the best from all the countries on Earth, and the leader of the nation or the groups who makes a commitment to do that in 2 decades will be remembered throughout history, hundreds and thousands of years in the future of the history of humanity, beginning, commencing, a human occupation of the solar system.

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I don’t agree with Joe Pappalardo of the Guardian who believes the U.S. should scrap government space programs and rely on investment in the private sector–I think there should be a competition between the two–but his article does spell out really well how reasoning not supported by facts can lead to policy based on gross distortions. The opening:

“‘Elon Musk,’ the satellite industry insider told me over a beer, ‘has got to be the luckiest son of a bitch alive.’

Musk – the insanely dedicated, wealthy and polarizing founder of PayPal, Tesla and Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) – is on a hot streak when it comes to spaceflight. He’s raiding revenue streams from Nasa and the US military to fund a private manned space program. His main weapon: low prices, with SpaceX offering satellite launches at about one-fifth the price of competitors at just over $60m a pop.

Sooner or later, the haters say, Musk’s streak will end in a fiery accident, or a satellite horribly deployed. That kind of disaster, naturally, would undercut the current soaring confidence in SpaceX, from investors, private-space believers and even taxpayers.

Another group of doubters on Capitol Hill say the industries needed to keep private space exploration viable simply don’t exist, necessitating a mini-Apollo push from Nasa, despite soaring progress from the Elon Musks of the world and soaring prices for government programs.

‘There’s a sense that America is falling behind, with our best days behind us,’ lamented Rep Lamar Smith of Texas on Wednesday, at yet another painful hearing of the House Committee on Science and Technology. ‘Today, America’s finest spaceships and largest rockets are found in museums rather than on launch pads.’

He’s wrong: Right now there are more space spacecraft and launch systems being designed and tested than any other moment in human history. Smith and others in Congress may be hooked on pork for their districts, but Washington doesn’t know how to build a space program. Inconsistent planning and politics have so stultified Nasa, after all, that America today has no way to launch people into space.”

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From Eric Mack at Forbes, comments from Elon Musk about his ambition to establish a city on Mars within a dozen years:

“‘I’m hopeful that the first people can be taken to Mars in 10-12 years,’ Musk said on CNBC this week. ‘I think it’s certainly possible for that to occur.’

But just getting to the red planet is not nearly enough for Musk, who says it’s more important to have ‘a self-sustaining city on Mars, to make life multi-planetary.’

He says if humans fail to become a multi-planet species, we will inevitably just hang out here on Earth until some sort of extinction-level event occurs.

But figuring out how we get to Mars and set up shop there is just the beginning of Musk’s grandiose vision. In the past, he’s also said that we may need to figure out ways to bio-engineer our food and even ourselves to make Mars work for us.”

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There’ve been rumors for awhile that Elon Musk was going to withdraw the patents for all his Tesla EV technology and open-source the previously proprietary information. That has come to pass, and it makes great business sense as well as being altruistic and progressive. If you were trying to popularize electric cars, wouldn’t you want a robust industry to be a part of? That way other companies will be producing innovations and nurturing talent and providing competition. It might be different if large manufacturers were deep into the game, but, sadly, they’re not. Also: Fewer patents mean fewer lawsuits. The Tesla press release:

“Yesterday, there was a wall of Tesla patents in the lobby of our Palo Alto headquarters. That is no longer the case. They have been removed, in the spirit of the open source movement, for the advancement of electric vehicle technology.

Tesla Motors was created to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. If we clear a path to the creation of compelling electric vehicles, but then lay intellectual property landmines behind us to inhibit others, we are acting in a manner contrary to that goal. Tesla will not initiate patent lawsuits against anyone who, in good faith, wants to use our technology.

When I started out with my first company, Zip2, I thought patents were a good thing and worked hard to obtain them. And maybe they were good long ago, but too often these days they serve merely to stifle progress, entrench the positions of giant corporations and enrich those in the legal profession, rather than the actual inventors. After Zip2, when I realized that receiving a patent really just meant that you bought a lottery ticket to a lawsuit, I avoided them whenever possible.

At Tesla, however, we felt compelled to create patents out of concern that the big car companies would copy our technology and then use their massive manufacturing, sales and marketing power to overwhelm Tesla. We couldn’t have been more wrong. The unfortunate reality is the opposite: electric car programs (or programs for any vehicle that doesn’t burn hydrocarbons) at the major manufacturers are small to non-existent, constituting an average of far less than 1% of their total vehicle sales.

At best, the large automakers are producing electric cars with limited range in limited volume. Some produce no zero emission cars at all.

Given that annual new vehicle production is approaching 100 million per year and the global fleet is approximately 2 billion cars, it is impossible for Tesla to build electric cars fast enough to address the carbon crisis. By the same token, it means the market is enormous. Our true competition is not the small trickle of non-Tesla electric cars being produced, but rather the enormous flood of gasoline cars pouring out of the world’s factories every day.

We believe that Tesla, other companies making electric cars, and the world would all benefit from a common, rapidly-evolving technology platform. 

Technology leadership is not defined by patents, which history has repeatedly shown to be small protection indeed against a determined competitor, but rather by the ability of a company to attract and motivate the world’s most talented engineers. We believe that applying the open source philosophy to our patents will strengthen rather than diminish Tesla’s position in this regard.”

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Critics of President Obama as a big-government champion certainly aren’t talking about about space exploration, which he seems content to leave to Elon Musk and other private market entities. There’s little doubt that Space X is more cost effective than NASA’s Space Launch System will be, but corporations can change course on projects based on economics, personnel and stock prices, whereas the government has to stay the course. Probably best to have a competition between public and private. That should be the new Space Race. From the Economist:

“SpaceX, the most successful of the private firms, is planning to build a super-heavy Falcon rocket of its own that would be even beefier than the SLS. If all goes to plan, the so-called Falcon XX could reach lunar orbit in the early 2020s and go on to Mars later in the decade, ten years ahead of the SLS. SpaceX already has the lowest launch costs in the industry. It is working on making its rockets reusable, which would cut prices even further. Some (admittedly speculative) estimates say that NASA could cut its costs by a factor of 25 or 50 by going with the Falcon XX rocket instead of the (non-reusable) SLS.

But this is not just an argument about money and jobs. The charitable interpretation of Congress’s plan is that it takes its inspiration from the greatness of the government-run Apollo programme. But Mr Musk is equally forceful when he says that ‘NASA’s most valuable role is to fund advanced science projects such as the Hubble space telescope or the Curiosity Mars rover—things that are valuable for humanity as a whole [and] where there’s not an obvious commercial transaction.’ The rest, in other words, including colonising Mars, Mr Musk’s ultimate aspiration, should be left to entrepreneurs.”

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I’ve posted before about Google pushing the near-term limits of what Elon Musk thinks is possible with autonomous vehicles. We’ll see how that turns out, but here’s a description the Verge’s David Pierce of Google’s new steering wheel-less autonomous taxi prototype which will definitely be all over the media and perhaps all over city streets:

“Speaking about self-driving cars last September, Elon Musk preached caution. The man who wants to send us all to space and shuttle us between cities at outrageous speeds told the FT that ‘my opinion is it’s a bridge too far to go to fully autonomous cars.’

Somewhere deep inside the secret labs at Google X, Sergey Brin must have read that and smiled. And then climbed into his tiny car — the one with a strange smiley face for a front and a noticeably missing steering wheel — and with a single button press instructed his car to drive him wherever billionaires go to cackle at the short-sightedness of other billionaires.

On Tuesday night, onstage at the Code Conference in California, Brin revealed an entirely new take on a self-driving car, one decidedly more ambitious than anything we’ve seen before. Google’s as-yet-unnamed car isn’t a modified Lexus. It doesn’t just park itself. It’s an entirely autonomous vehicle, with no need for steering wheels or gas pedals or human intervention of any kind. You can’t drive it even if you want to.

The Google Car is fully electric, big enough for two passengers. It’ll only go 25 miles per hour. Your involvement with the car consists of four things: get in, put on your seatbelt, press the Start button, and wait.”

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From Dana Hull at the San Jose Mercury News, more information about Elon Musk’s Gigafactory, which he believes can cut battery costs by 30%, a key to making Teslas more affordable:

“The planned $5 billion gigafactory is key to Tesla’s strategy of manufacturing a more affordable, mass-market electric car. Tesla has not finalized a location but is looking at several states, including Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and Texas. California is also being considered but is regarded as a long shot because of the lengthy time required for the permitting process.

In an onstage interview with venture capitalist Ira Ehrenpreis, an early investor in Tesla who sits on its board of directors, Musk said that vertically integrating the battery production makes economic sense.

‘The gigafactory will take that to another level,’ he said. ‘You’ll have stuff coming directly from the mine, getting on a rail car and getting delivered to the factory, with finished battery packs coming out the other side. The cost-compression potential is quite high if you are willing to go all the way down the supply chain.’

But the gigafactory will not just supply batteries for Tesla’s electric cars: Stationary battery packs will be provided to SolarCity, the San Mateo solar-installation company run by Musk’s cousins, and other renewable energy companies in the solar and wind industries.”

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An Independent article by Jack Pitts covers Elon Musk’s recent pronouncements about the near-term design of driverless cars, which are both bold and somewhat sobering, though I bet only the bold part gets a lot of press. An excerpt:

“Speaking to the Financial Times Musk confirmed his company’s aspiration to build the first commercial self-drive vehicles – aiming to implement them within the Model S, Tesla’s landmark electric car.

Previously Musk has tweeted: ‘Intense effort underway at Tesla to develop a practical autopilot system for Model S’ and ‘Engineers interested in working on autonomous driving, pls email autopilot@teslamotors.com. Team will report directly to me.’

During the interview Musk referred to Tesla’s self-drive technology as ‘an autopilot’ that could be switched on an off like an aeroplane’s guidance systems. A fully-autonomous car that is entirely under computer control, he says, would be too dangerous with current technology.

Weary drivers were recently tantalised by photos of commuters in futuristic cars watching TV, chatting and looking anywhere but the road.

However, Musk himself admits that this may be a fantasy: ‘We should be able to do 90 per cent of miles driven within three years,’ adding that fully autonomous cars may be ‘a bridge too far’ for the near future.”

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As mentioned in the post about Steven Pinker and the Availability Heuristic, we aren’t always great at gauging what’s truly bad for us. When a new technology experiences glitches that older ones also endure, sometimes too bright a light is shined on just the avant garde. The opening of Elon Musk’s Medium essay about Tesla introducing further fireproofing protections:

In 2013, two extremely unusual Model S collisions resulted in underbody damage that led to car fires. These incidents, unfortunately, received more national headlines than the other 200,000 gasoline car fires that happened last year in North America alone. In both cases, the occupants walked away unharmed, thanks to the car’s safety features. The onboard computer warned the occupants to exit the vehicles, which they did well before any fire was noticeable. However, even if the occupants had remained in the vehicle and the fire department had not arrived, they would still have been safely protected by the steel and ceramic firewall between the battery pack and the passenger compartment.

It is important to note that there have been no fire injuries (or serious, permanent injuries of any kind) in a Tesla at all. The odds of fire in a Model S, at roughly 1 in 8,000 vehicles, are five times lower than those of an average gasoline car and, when a fire does occur, the actual combustion potential is comparatively small. However, to improve things further, we provided an over-the-air software update a few months ago to increase the default ground clearance of the Model S at highway speeds, substantially reducing the odds of a severe underbody impact.

Nonetheless, we felt it was important to bring this risk down to virtually zero to give Model S owners complete peace of mind. Starting with vehicle bodies manufactured as of March 6, all cars have been outfitted with a triple underbody shield. Tesla service will also retrofit the shields, free of charge, to existing cars upon request or as part of a normally scheduled service.”

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Speaking of hydrogen and electric cars, here’s an excerpt from an Economist report about Elon Musk’s Tesla Motors, which has modest profits to date but about half the valuation of GM because it might, perhaps, be the future:

“The prospects for electric cars have taken a turn for the better. China, a market that Tesla is eyeing for a third of its sales, last month announced strict new fuel-efficiency standards that may make life hard, if not impossible, for importers of big petrol-engined cars. The European Union this week confirmed new curbs on tailpipe emissions, to be imposed from 2021.

Even so, becoming a mass-market ‘General Electric Motors’ will not be easy. In about three years Tesla will launch the Model E, a small saloon with a range of perhaps 400 miles, costing just $35,000 or so—if its new factory can make batteries that are good and cheap enough. It will have to, because its buyers will be using it as an everyday set of wheels, not an indulgence. And it will have rivals: BMW’s i3, launched last year, is aimed at the same market. Other carmakers will follow suit.

For buyers who just want the cheapest means of getting from A to B, regardless of the vehicle’s looks or performance, the lowest-cost petrol cars will be hard to beat for some time to come. Traditional carmakers talk of one day serving such customers with ‘mobility as a service’—fleets of self-driving taxis. Tesla, which is also investing in autonomous driving technology, could be a strong contender in such a new market: unlike its older rivals, it would have no legacy business, of factories churning out petrol models, to be disrupted.”

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Elon Musk apparently grew a little flustered recently during a Tesla earnings call when he was asked almost to the exclusion of everything else about his plans to build Gigafactory, the world’s largest battery factory. But he’d better get used to it because the work’s implications go far beyond electric cars and could be repurposed into virtually every other industry. From Alan Ohnsman at Businessweek:

“Tesla has dubbed the project the ‘gigafactory,’ and it would make Musk a force in both U.S. manufacturing and electric power. The plant he envisions would have more capacity than any other to make lithium-ion batteries.

‘This has a huge impact beyond Tesla,’ said Harley Shaiken, a labor economist at the University of California, Berkeley. ‘It gives enormous legitimacy to battery production and the future of the electric car because that lies in the battery. It’s high stakes, high technology.’

Tesla plans an investment of $4 billion to $5 billion by 2020 and will fund about $2 billion of the total, the Palo Alto, California-based company said in a presentation on its website. The convertible bond offering could grow to $1.84 billion, according to a separate statement.”

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People are wary of the new as they should be, but sometimes we can be so circumspect about what’s arriving that we forget about the shortcoming of what’s already here, already familiar. Elon Musk, who has more of a vested interest in electric cars than practically anyone, argues against the idea that the new technology, even with several recent Tesla fires, is inordinately dangerous when compared to fossil-fuel counterparts. Am excerpt:

“In order to get to that end goal, big leaps in technology are required, which naturally invites a high level of scrutiny. That is fair, as new technology should be held to a higher standard than what has come before. However, there should also be some reasonable limit to how high such a standard should be, and we believe that this has been vastly exceeded in recent media coverage.

Since the Model S went into production last year, there have been more than a quarter million gasoline car fires in the United States alone, resulting in over 400 deaths and approximately 1,200 serious injuries (extrapolating 2012 NFPA data). However, the three Model S fires, which only occurred after very high-speed collisions and caused no serious injuries or deaths, received more national headlines than all 250,000+ gasoline fires combined. The media coverage of Model S fires vs. gasoline car fires is disproportionate by several orders of magnitude, despite the latter actually being far more deadly.”

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Just to annoy George Clooney, Elon Musk believes he can build an electric supersonic jet. From Damon Lavrinc at Wired:

“At the New York Times DealBook conference, Musk said there’s an ‘interesting opportunity to make a supersonic vertical takeoff landing jet,’ something he began to envision after the Concorde service ended nearly a decade ago.

The physics of getting enough power on board an electric aircraft to not only carry passengers, but maintain a supersonic speed, is still decades away. Not that it matters to Musk. Like the Hyperloop, it’s something he doesn’t have time to commit to developing. At least, not yet.”

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In 1968, Braniff predicts the future of air travel:

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Futurist Jordan Brandt of Autodesk recently published a conceptual proposal which suggested how Elon Musk could manufacture his new transportation model, the Hyperloop. Brandt, who is currently working on 3D printing and 4D printing (self-assembling, self-replicating), just did an Ask Me Anything at Reddit. In it, he addresses one of the chief concerns of manufacturing via printing: more waste. The exchange:

Question:

Why is 3d printing so revolutionary? Is it going to replace traditional manufacturing?

Jordan Brandt:

Near term 3d printing will augment traditional manufacturing, helping us through the ‘last mile’ of automation. Long term, it’s totally revolutionary

Question:

Won’t there be a serious environmental impact from the proliferation of even more objects in the world? Or do you think that recycling technology will evolve hand in hand with 3d printing technology so that we can just reprint all our waste?

Jordan Brandt:

Imagine if you could get your $.10 bottle deposit by simply throwing your water bottle into the 3d printing recycler (like filabot). Seems like less CO2 emissions than having trucks drive around, pick everything up, recycle, and then redistribute new products?”

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From a post by Damon Lavrinc at Wired, in which Elon Musk argues vehemently against hydrogen fuel cells for autos:

“There’s an old joke about hydrogen power: It’s the fuel of the future, and always will be. Elon Musk doesn’t just agree, he called out hydrogen fuel cell vehicles as ‘bullshit,’ claiming they’re more of a marketing ploy for automakers than a long-term solution.

The comment from Musk came during a speech to employees and enthusiasts at a new Tesla service center in Germany. The electric automaker’s co-founder and CEO was onstage espousing the virtues of the Model S when he went off on a tangent about EV naysayers: ‘And then they’ll say certain technologies like fuel cell … oh god … fuel cell is so bullshit. Except in a rocket.’

Musk goes on to state that even given the very best hydrogen technology, it doesn’t come close to the energy density of a modern lithium-ion battery pack like that found in the Model S.”

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In 1978, Jack Nicholson invests in hydrogen-powered cars:

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I look askance at any article, like Bill Roberson’s new Digital Trends piece, which compares the course-altering effect of JFK’s Space Race pronouncement to Elon Musk’s push for electric cars. It’s overheated, but who knows, perhaps the latter will have a more profound influence on our environment. From the article, which also provides a historical look at the impact of automobiles:

“The Tesla is a bit like the Apollo moon landings. In truth, the lunar missions came before their time. We were supposed to orbit, build a space station platform, then head for new worlds. But President Kennedy’s space race with the Soviets lead the U.S. to leapfrog the Step 2 Space Station and throw for the end zone. Nice catch, NASA.

The Model S is making the electric car market do much the same thing. Logically, we should all be driving the offspring of the Toyota Prius and Honda Insight: cars with gas engines and electric motors mixed together for high mileage and unlimited range with no ‘anxiety.’ Hybrids, in all their forms, were supposed to be the bridge from gas to the all-electric future. But Mr. Musk changed the equation and now everyone is chasing the Model S, years ahead of schedule.

That the car is so tremendously good at this stage in its development cycle is a credit to Mr. Musk’s engineering prowess and his able employees. But years from now, history will show it shifted the proverbial paradigm just as the Model T did in the early 20th century.

Carmakers of all sizes are now scrambling to bring all-electric vehicles to market – all while the infrastructure to power them remains off the pace. Hopefully, Tesla’s Superchargers will light a fire under carmakers, politicians, city planners and transportation departments to get chargers in place to fuel the growing number of electric cars. Once the charging network hits critical mass – which is when EV owners can essentially drive anywhere and charge up quickly – electric car ownership numbers will carve heavily into those of gas-powered cars.

Eventually, it will be goodbye gasoline, at least for personal cars.”

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Recent evidence suggested Tesla Motors was entering the autonomous-car sector, and now Elon Musk, with customary confidence, has confirmed these suspicions. From a Financial Times interview:

“Robot cars that can take over most of the driving from their human handlers will be ready for the road within three years, according to Elon Musk, the US electric cars and space entrepreneur whose bold predictions have come to embody an ambitious new era in tech industry thinking.

Tesla Motors, which startled traditional automotive giants such as General Motors and Renault-Nissan with its electric cars, is now joining the race to build cars that can drive themselves, Mr Musk, the chief executive, said.

The attempt to build a driverless car would see Tesla overtake Google, which three years ago fired the starting gun in this technological race but has since struggled to find a partner to build the cars.

It also marks the latest attempt by Mr Musk to gain a technological jump on the rest of the industry after his company’s luxury sedan, the Model S, became the first profitable electric vehicle this year.

‘We should be able to do 90 per cent of miles driven within three years,’ he said. Mr Musk would not reveal further details of Tesla’s autonomy project, but said it was ‘internal development’ rather than technology being supplied by another company. ‘It’s not speculation,’ he said.”

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Technologists and automakers haven’t agreed yet on what to call cars that drive themselves: driverless, robocars, autonomous, etc. Though I guess if the transition is successful, they’ll eventually just be called “cars.” Elon Musk, who prefers the term “auto-pilot” to “self-driving,” is, regardless of the terminology, advancing his place in the sector. From Nathan Olivarez-Giles at the Verge:

“Tesla Motors is getting serious about building self-driving cars. The electric automaker has posted a job opening for an Advanced Driver Assistance Systems Controls Engineer that will help the company develop technology for fully autonomous vehicles. The listing says the engineer ‘will be responsible for developing vehicle-level decision-making and lateral and longitudinal control strategies for Tesla’s effort to pioneer fully automated driving.’ Tesla wants this engineer to not only develop self-driving features for future electric cars, but also retrofit such systems to its Model S sedan.

As noted by Wired, which first reported the listing, Tesla has plenty of catching up to do when it comes to automation. The Model S lacks features that are commonplace in many other top-tier luxury vehicles such as adaptive cruise control, automated lane changing, and self-parking. Despite unanswered legal questions over the legality of self-driving cars, the tech and automotive industries are both pressing to bring this type of technology to market.”

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