Urban Studies

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Via Joshua Keating at Foreign Policy, an excerpt from “Some Far-out Thoughts on Computers,” CIA Analyst Orrin Clotworthy’s 1962 memo about the future of Big Data:

As a final thought, how about a machine that would send via closed-circuit television visual and oral information needed immediately at high-level conferences or briefings? Let’s say that a group of senior officers are contemplating a covert action program for Afghanistan. Things go well until someone asks, ‘Well, just how many schools are there in the country, and what is the literacy rate?’ No one in the room knows. (Remember, this is an imaginary situation.) So the junior member present dials a code number into a device at one end of the table. Thirty seconds later, on the screen overhead, a teletype printer begins to hammer out the required data. Before the meeting is over, the group has been given through the same method the names of countries that have airlines into Afghanistan, a biographical profile of the Soviet ambassador there, and the Pakistani order of battle along the Afghanistan frontier. Neat, no?”

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The Internet has destroyed several industries with its creative destruction and will level many more, but we’ve all benefited from it in numerous ways. But how do we quantify those benefits? The opening of a new Economist article that tries to do just that:

“WHEN her two-year-old daughter was diagnosed with cancer in 1992, Judy Mollica spent hours in a nearby medical library in south Florida, combing through journals for information about her child’s condition. Upon seeing an unfamiliar term she would stop and hunt down its meaning elsewhere in the library. It was, she says, like ‘walking in the dark.’ Her daughter recovered but in 2005 was diagnosed with a different form of cancer. This time, Ms Mollica was able to stay by her side. She could read articles online, instantly look up medical and scientific terms on Wikipedia, and then follow footnotes to new sources. She could converse with her daughter’s specialists like a fellow doctor. Wikipedia, she says, not only saved her time but gave her a greater sense of control. ‘You can’t put a price on that.’

Measuring the economic impact of all the ways the internet has changed people’s lives is devilishly difficult because so much of it has no price. It is easier to quantify the losses Wikipedia has inflicted on encyclopedia publishers than the benefits it has generated for users like Ms Mollica. This problem is an old one in economics. GDP measures monetary transactions, not welfare. Consider someone who would pay $50 for the latest Harry Potter novel but only has to pay $20. The $30 difference represents a non-monetary benefit called ‘consumer surplus.’ The amount of internet activity that actually shows up in GDP—Google’s ad sales, for example—significantly understates its contribution to welfare by excluding the consumer surplus that accrues to Google’s users. The hard question to answer is by how much.”

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“Soon after the appearance of this person a young woman named Marie Clément declared ‘her blood was frozen in her veins.'”

No matter how advanced the world becomes in a variety of ways–our world included–plenty of people still cling to superstition, whether it be religion or medical quackery or what have you. The opening of a story from an article in the May 4, 1922 New York Times, which reported on fears of witchcraft in a decade known for automobiles and flappers:

Paris–Witchcraft, a demon-haunted village, people possessed by devils and final exorcism of the evil spirits by a priest are features of a strange story of peasant superstition that reaches the Matin today from a tiny hamlet on an island off the Breton coast. The epilogue to the story is more prosaic–intervention of the police authorities of twentieth century France and the arraignment of the dreaded sorceress before a modern court of justice.

The distress and terror which fell on the village of Tyhair were traced directly by the frightened inhabitants to the invasion of the island by a strange woman popularly known by the name of the Witch de Grach. Soon after the appearance of this person a young woman named Marie Clément declared ‘her blood was frozen in her veins,’ Her father was next affected, his tongue cleaving to the roof of his mouth when he attempted to speak. Soon after the father of Marie’s fiancé found his cattle wasting away and the milk drying up. Clément was accused by his neighbor of having cast a spell over the cattle and the two families were embroiled in a feud.

The other inhabitants having had troubles of their own took to the side of Clément, declaring the distress of the village was due to the sorceress who had turned loose devils. These devils, after working evil, they declared, always disappeared in ratholes.”

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“Willing to travel to NJ.”

Tarantula Owner?

I’m trying to get over a fear of tarantulas and I was hoping a tarantula owner might let me visit with their 8-legged friend. I don’t need much time, just 15 minutes or so to hear about your tarantula and pet/hold it. I know it’s a strange request, but I’d really like to get over this fear asap. Willing to travel to NJ as well. 

Thanks!

From the UK version of Wired, a passage about Esther Dyson suggesting we expedite the personalization of medicine, which will definitely happen, though no one knows when:

“‘They personalise my adverts, why can’t they personalise my medicine?’ Esther Dyson, serial investor and chairwoman of EDventures, uttered these words at London Web Summit, arguing that one of the greatest areas ripe for innovation for startups now is the healthcare sector.

Wired magazine editor David Rowan, interviewing Dyson at the conference on 1 March, pointed out that we don’t yet have personalised medicine because of the time and costs involved in human drug trials. This, says Dyson, should not stop us innovating, inventing and investing in products that will improve the general population’s health.

‘Most drugs are not totally effective for most of the population,,’ said Dyson. ‘They’re about 100 percent effective for 30 percent of the population and probably toxic for 20 percent. But if you know the genetics, drugs are going to be much better for the population.’

Five years from now, she argued, you won’t take serious medicine without knowing it’ll work for you. We will have moved away from trying and taking and hoping it will work — ‘currently,’ pointed out Dyson, ‘I get the same dose of a drug as 500 pound guy.'”

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An aging and lonely particle physics professor from America meets what appears to be a gorgeous, young Czechoslovakian bikini model online. Despite his intelligence and experience, he willfully ignores every tell and signal that the truth is something else–and something dangerous. From “The Professor, the Bikini Model and the Suitcase Full of Trouble,” Maxine Swann’s new feature in the New York Times Magazine:

“Frampton didn’t plan on a long trip. He needed to be back to teach. So he left his car at the airport. Soon, he hoped, he’d be returning with Milani on his arm. The first thing that went wrong was that the e-ticket Milani sent Frampton for the Toronto-Santiago leg of his journey turned out to be invalid, leaving him stranded in the Toronto airport for a full day. Frampton finally arrived in La Paz four days after he set out. He hoped to meet Milani the next morning, but by then she had been called away to another photo shoot in Brussels. She promised to send him a ticket to join her there, so Frampton, who had checked into the Eva Palace Hotel, worked on a physics paper while he waited for it to arrive. He and Milani kept in regular contact. A ticket to Buenos Aires eventually came, with the promise that another ticket to Brussels was on the way. All Milani asked was that Frampton do her a favor: bring her a bag that she had left in La Paz.

While in Bolivia, Frampton corresponded with an old friend, John Dixon, a physicist and lawyer who lives in Ontario. When Frampton explained what he was up to, Dixon became alarmed. His warnings to Frampton were unequivocal, Dixon told me not long ago, still clearly upset: “I said: ‘Well, inside that suitcase sewn into the lining will be cocaine. You’re in big trouble.’ Paul said, ‘I’ll be careful, I’ll make sure there isn’t cocaine in there and if there is, I’ll ask them to remove it.’ I thought they were probably going to kidnap him and torture him to get his money. I didn’t know he didn’t have money. I said, ‘Well, you’re going to be killed, Paul, so whom should I contact when you disappear?’”

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From the March 3, 1886 New York Times:

Oswego, N.Y.–Mrs. Isaac Rury of New-Haven, Oswego County, was arrested to-day on a charge of bigamy. The story told by Mrs. Rury is a peculiar one. She married her first husband 15 years ago in Hawkinsville, Oneida County, when she was 15 years old. After her marriage she discovered that her husband was not a man. She left him after living with him six months and has not seen him since. She married Rury in 1884. She alleges that her second husband was acquainted with the facts in the case. She had him arrested a day or two ago for brutal treatment, and claims that the present proceedings are brought against her for spite.”

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I think more than most that people will be surprisingly accepting of nanotechnology as medicine in the same way they’ve been open, even inviting, of nonstop surveillance. Father-and-son futurists Ray and Ethan Kurzweil don’t necessarily agree with that view in a new Wall Street Journal interview conducted by Amir Efrati. An excerpt:

WSJ: 

What will happen technologically in the next five years?

Ray Kurzweil: 

My message is the law of accelerating returns and how remarkably predictable the exponential growth of IT is. More and more things become IT, like health and medicine. There will be 3-D printing, augmented reality.

Ethan Kurzweil: 

Every step along the way will freak people out.

Ray Kurzweil:

With nanodevices that will be implanted in our bodies to repair us, putting technology in our bloodstream, lots of people will opt out at first.”

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I have never been on a cruise and hope to never go on one. Those ships are floating bacteria factories and if not entirely lawless, a lot less lawful than they should be. A former Senior Officer of a luxury cruise line just did an Ask Me Anything on Reddit. His introductory comments are below, followed by a few exchanges.

“Couple little known facts: The ship has a morgue. Officers mess can be 5 star dining, personal waiters and everything. Most of what you see on the love boat is total bullshit. Officers mess has beer available at breakfast, lunch, and dinner. The laundry, mostly staffed with Chinese crew, had people who hadn’t seen the sun in a year. It’s really hard to get kicked off a ship, you have to fuck up royally. Only 2 things will get you booted. If you mess up the experience for a significant number of people, or create a safety hazard (like calling in a fake man overboard)”

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Question:

Were there any mysterious deaths on your lines? Do you believe that the cruise lines cover up deaths in order to avoid bad publicity?

Answer:

Renaissance was called a line for the newly weds and nearly deads. Frankly, few else could afford it. That said, we had deaths, and a tiny morgue. Heart attacks were not that uncommon either. You have to consider a few things. One, if some dies in a hotel, no one blames the hotel. If you die on a cruise ship, something mysterious must have happened. Second, the cruise ship while in International waters has no governing body or laws outside of the captain, and international maritime laws. What that means is, the captain is god, jury, and executioner on the vessel. I have not seen any cover-ups regarding deaths, but I certainly believe it happens. Frankly, knowing what I know I’m surprised more people don’t go missing. A cruise is the perfect way to vanish, or make someone vanish easily.

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Question:

Are you talking literally haven’t seen the sun for a year? There has to be some health consequences to spending a bunch of your life under deck.

Answer:

Over a year, yes. These guys would work nights and sleep all day. In fact, they wouldn’t go into port on their days off, just to save money. We had to drag one guy off the ship for his break after the contract, he wanted to keep working. They can make 20k a year in cash. A couple years and go back to china and apparently live very well.

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Question:

Whats the best part of being at sea for that long? To counter, what is the the hardest part?

Answer:

I saw the world. I saw monkeys snag a drink from the udder of a wandering cow in india, drank Cobra blood in thailand, went to Ephesus and visited the worlds oldest brothel, and had many lonely nights at sea. It was really hard on the long stretches, you get sea legs and are wobbly when you get in port. Being at sea means not having to deal with port issues, inspections, customs, loading of goods, unloading of trash, etc. It’s those lonely long nights of not wanting steak and lobster or free booze. The shimmer fades quickly when it’s your life.

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Question:

Most wtf thing you’ve seen on the job?

Answer:

I’m probably going to get sued for talking about this, but it was the presidents guest. The president of a cruise line I won’t name invited sent some friends on a free cruise, and this guy went ape shit. He forgot his meds, got smashed, and starting going after people with a steak knife, trying to find a hostage. He was thrown in the brig, and AIR lifted off via helicopter for repatriation. I don’t know how it was kept quiet, but I imagine some people got some free cruises to shut up about it.

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Question:

When betting on Monkey Knife Fights – what do you look for? 

Answer:

Strong legs, because monkey knife fights end up on the ground in a few seconds. Generally, I go with whomever Mr. Burns bets on.•

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Now in Spanish!:

Manti Te’o’s “girlfriend” was only slightly less authentic than a Kardashian, and none of us is exactly the same person virtually as we are actually. In this blend of reality and unreality that is our world now, the line gets blurred for some people.

From that wonderful Awl blog, an excerpt from “The Hoax Exposer,” Molly Shalgos’ interview with Taryn Wright, a Chicago day trader who exposes Internet fakes in her spare time:

Question:

What’s the general reaction of a person perpetrating this kind of hoax when you first confront them?

Taryn Wright:

It’s been bizarre. I usually send them the blog entry and they immediately delete their page. I ask if we can talk and most give me their phone number. A huge number of them begin to consider me a friend. I’m Facebook friends with three of them, and I text and email with three more.

They don’t seem angry with me. It’s almost like it’s a relief that someone made them stop.

Question:

Do any of them seek out any kind of mental help after they’re uncovered?

Taryn Wright:

A few of them have. I’ve helped a couple find therapists. A lot of them have been pathologically lying from an early age and some have already been through therapy. One of them had a Munchausen by Internet diagnosis.

Question:

Ohhh, let’s do some talking about Munchausen By Internet. Explain that one, please!

Taryn Wright:

Well, it’s not formally recognized by the psychology establishment, but a psychiatrist named Marc Feldman coined the term in the early ’00s. It’s a form of Munchausen syndrome, but instead of faking sick, or making their children or family members sick for attention, the person with MBI pretends to be sick online.

They go into support groups and spin tragic stories and hog attention. If they’re caught, they usually delete their profiles and move on to a new support group.

Question:

How many documented cases of that have there been?

Taryn Wright:

An awful lot. Dr. Feldman has seen a few hundred by now.”

 

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Russell Baker isn’t the only one who thinks humans are living in veritable forests nowadays. From Matt Ridley’s Five Books interview, a discussion about Bjørn Lomborg’s contrarian volume, The Skeptical Environmentalist:

Matt Ridley:

There is more forest now than there was 50 years ago.

Question:

No. Really?

Matt Ridley:

Yup. Not in the right places necessarily. Rain forest is retreating but go to the Eastern seaboard of America. It’s covered in forest. It used to be farmland. Some of it’s plantations but some of it’s just wild forest that’s regrowing. The total number of trees in the world is going up at the moment, not down. There’s less water pollution, less air pollution, the kinds of things that caused urban smog in LA in the 1960s are going down dramatically.

Question:

With the trees. That sounds so unlikely.

Matt Ridley:

Exactly. A lot of what he says sounds unlikely because, as he says, people have heard the litany over and over again. He went back to reputable sources – UN, World Bank, other sources – and he found that the numbers simply don’t support the pessimism. There aren’t as many trees as there were…well, when?

Question:

1510.

Matt Ridley:

Britain probably has more trees now than in 1510. Huge forest clearances had happened long before that. The forestry commission has planted a lot of trees. There’s certainly more forest today than at any point in the last couple of hundred of years. When it got to be this lightly forested, it was probably the Middle Ages. There were huge forest clearances to fuel the iron industry in the 15th, 16th and 17th centuries. And real problems because they started running out of charcoal. The iron industry had to leave the South of England because there were no trees left. They moved to Wales and Cumbria and deforested that too. Species extinction rates for mammals and birds peaked around 1900 and they’ve been dropping since.”

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Prohibition of things people want usually just create black markets and opportunities for organized crime. But what about prohibition that grandfathers in the availability of the products for those already of age? It wouldn’t work with narcotics or alcohol, but what about cigarettes? From Richard A. Daynard in the New York Times:

“The F.D.A. would be well within its authority to require nicotine content to be below addictive levels — an idea that originated with a 1994 article in The New England Journal of Medicine urging a nonaddictive nicotine standard.

Cigarette makers would lobby hard to block such a standard. But if the F.D.A. insisted on the change, and cigarettes ceased to be addictive, ample evidence shows that most smokers would quit or switch to less toxic nicotine products. Current nonsmokers, moreover, would be far less likely to become addicted.

Another part of the act affirms the authority of states and municipal governments to prohibit the sale, distribution and possession of — and even access and exposure to — tobacco products by individuals of any age.

This provides an opportunity for states, counties and cities to adopt the Smokefree Generation, a proposal by A. J. Berrick, a mathematics professor in Singapore.

The idea is simple: no one born in or after 2000 can ever be sold cigarettes.”

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The opening of “Tower of Light,” Megan Garber’s new Atlantic piece which recalls how Americans created “artificial moonlight” in the years before electrical infrastructure was available:

“First they tried to make moons.

In the early years of electricity — a time when steady illumination was new and expensive and unwieldy — Americans knew one thing clearly: They wanted light, and lots of it, and as quickly as possible, please. What they were less sure of, though, was how they would get that light. A grid of electric lamps, studded throughout towns — a system that mimicked and often repurposed the infrastructure of gas lamps — was the early and obvious method. But street lights required wires, which, when hastily assembled, had an annoying tendency to disentangle themselves and fall into the streets below. At best, this was an inconvenience, at worst, a deadly danger. Street lamps were also investment-intensive: Towns needed a lot of them to provide the bright light that people found themselves craving. They were also expensive. They took time to install. They meant pockets of bright light punctuated, where the lamps failed to reach, by complementary swaths of darkness.

City leaders, racing to bring their towns into the future and encouraged by electric companies seeking the same destination, tried to find better ways, cheaper ways, quicker ways to illuminate the American landscape. And in their haste to vanquish nature by erasing the line between day and night, they ended up looking to nature as a guide. They looked up, seeking a model in the largest and most reliable source of nocturnal light they knew: the moon.”

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From Craig Timberg’s new Washington Post article about the legal implications of smart cars:

“More than 60 percent of vehicles worldwide will be connected directly to the Internet by 2017, up from 11 percent last year, predicts ABI Research. In North America and Europe, that percentage is likely to reach 80 percent.

Many cars already record their speed, direction and gear setting, as well as when brakes activate and for how long. Newer systems also can track whether road surfaces are slick or whether the driver is wearing a seat belt — information potentially valuable to police and insurance companies investigating crashes. (Some car insurance companies already monitor driving behavior in exchange for discounted rates.)

‘The cars produce literally hundreds of megabytes of data each second,’ said John Ellis, a Ford technologist who demonstrated some of the new Internet-based systems at the company’s display at the Mobile World Congress, which ended last week in Barcelona. ‘The technology is advancing so much faster than legislation or business models are keeping up. . . . What can government do? What can you do?’

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I’ve always believed that people are more productive professionally if they are present in an office and preferably one that is a little too small so that they are almost forced to collaborate and share ideas. But have I been sold a narrative that doesn’t stand up to statistical analysis? An excerpt from Richard Branson pushing back at the anti-telecommuting arguments of Marissa Mayer and Michael Bloomberg:

“The debate about remote working has raged for the past week following Yahoo! CEO Marissa Mayer’s opposition to her staff working from home. Now Michael Bloomberg has said he’s always thought working from home is ‘one of the dumber ideas I’ve ever heard.’

I have enormous respect for Michael Bloomberg and have rarely disagreed with anything he has done or said. However, on this occasion I disagree completely. Many employees who work from home are extremely diligent, get their job done, and get to spend more time with their families. They waste less time commuting and get a better work/life balance. To force everybody to work in offices is old school thinking. …

The key for me is that in today’s world I do not think it is effective or productive to force your employees one way or another. Choice empowers people and makes for a more content workforce.

In 30 years time, as technology moves forward even further, people are going to look back and wonder why offices ever existed. Do you agree that offices will one day be a thing of the past?”

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Something I’ve mentioned before is that I don’t get the resistance to genetically modified foods since we’re going to need them desperately sooner or later. The climate that allows us to enjoy our current agriculture would eventually change naturally even if we were treating our environment well, which we are not. The Earth has existed for more than 4.5 billion years, and our climate has been in its present form for merely a fraction of that. Things change. Why not experiment with lab-based foods while we still have the time? That doesn’t mean we have to trust food corporations-they are not trustworthy. They should be watched more closely whether we’re talking about natural, processed or GM foods. But we shouldn’t take any options off the table. From “Frankenfoods Reduce Global Warming” in the Economist:

“Each year the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications (ISAAA), a not-for-profit body, publishes estimates for the number of hectares under GM crops (available for order here). Its most recent report shows that, for the first time, developing countries are growing more hectares of GM crops than rich countries are—a remarkable uptake given that the technology was introduced only two decades ago, and is often seen as suitable mainly for rich farmers.

According to ISAAA, 170m hectares of land are planted to GM crops round the world and 52% of them are in emerging markets. Almost half of that share are in five countries, China, India, South Africa, Brazil and Argentina. Brazil is the most important of these: its GM land area rose by more than a fifth in 2012 to 37m hectares, making it the fastest growing GM market in the world and second in size behind America.

Rich countries are using more GM crops, too, but only slightly: they planted 1.6m hectares more than in 2011, up 3%. Developing countries planted 11% more (9m hectares). Of the 17m farmers who use such crops round the world, 15m are in emerging markets.

The report also logs the spread of so-called ‘stacked traits,’ crops with two or more bio-engineered traits. These are planted on 44m hectares, more than a quarter of the total.

Many greens continue to be implacably opposed to GM crops, which they regard as environmentally harmful.

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“Can cook delicious meals in exchange for help.”

Need Dermatological Help!

Hi! I have horrible scabs & scars all over my body from bedbug bites and have no idea who to turn to. I’m living a nightmare for the past 5 months with skin I don’t recognise: bumpy, continuously itchy, with some of the scabs not healing well/getting infected. I feel disgusting and ugly. I have no money or health insurance, but can cook delicious meals in exchange for help.

As robots grow more autonomous, do we need to broaden the legal system to hold them (and just their manufacturers and owners) culpable for their misdeeds? Law professor Gabriel Hallevy thinks so. From an interview with the author of When Robots Kill that was conducted by Dylan Matthews at the Washington Post:

“Any punishment that we may impose on humans, we can impose it both on corporations and on the robot, or any other non-human entity. You need some fine-tuning adjustments. We can impose imprisonment on corporations. We have no problem with it. I’m not talking about putting in prison the people who are managing the corporations. The legal technique for corporations is to ask, “What is the meaning of imprisonment?” It’s to negate its freedom. The freedom of any corporation is the legal capability to make business. Therefore, when you impose six years imprisonment on a corporation, you cannot allow the corporation during this period to do business.

Robots, it has the same technique but it may lead to different consequences. When we impose imprisonment, we should ask what is the meaning of the certain punishment on the robot. It means to negate its freedom. That freedom is the freedom to commit its useful daily tasks. So you ban him from doing the daily tasks.

I don’t think that imprisonment for robots would be effective as it is for humans. There are other punishments that may be effective on robots than on humans. For any corporation the most effective punishment isn’t imprisonment. It’s a fine. For robots, I can think of community service. For example, in the near future when I hire the services of a robot to help me with my daily task, and the robot commits a criminal offense, for the next few months it may help the community by doing daily tasks for the community. For example, to help in the community library, to help to clean the streets or such other things that contribute to the community.

This is not the only punishment, but any punishment can be adjusted to the robot. Of course, the death penalty, in the case that we still have this punishment, it would be the simple solution of a shutdown, to shut down the robot. If there is no other option, you must cease his life, and that means to shut him down.”

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Evgeny Morozov, that contrarian philosopher of the Digital Age, was just interviewed by Robert Herritt at the Daily Beast. An excerpt about what Morozov believes is the near-term future of the Internet:

The Daily Beast:

You have often mentioned this pervasive idea of the Internet as eternal and sacrosanct. As someone who rejects that view, play futurist for a second: What kind of technologies could displace the Internet?

Evgeny Morozov:

I think that definitely the underlying network will probably stay for a while until we find other ways to interconnect our gadgets.

What I expect to see in the next five to seven years is the migration of Big Data and the algorithms that have been developed in the context of Facebook and in the context of Google, into the world at large — into the physical reality. I want to do my next book on the future of public space in the era of smart technologies. Because I think that, ultimately, all of that will break from the purely virtual connections into mediating how we interact with houses and buildings and public squares and shops.

What I do on Facebook will be integrated with what I do when I go to the store. It will be integrated with what I do when I drive my self-driving car. It will be integrated with what I print on my 3D printer, and so forth.”

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Because he was too busy masturbating with both hands, Hustler publisher and free-speech advocate Larry Flynt only now has realized that print media is on the endangered species list. From an article by Geoff Herbert at Syracuse.com:

“The 70-year-old political advocate is also getting ready to celebrate the 40th anniversary of Hustler. The porn publication was first published in 1974 but Flynt admits it might not appear in print much longer, like Newsweek, Spin and The Sporting News.

‘I think magazines are becoming passé,’ he said. ‘They’ll always be around for people who enjoy that coffee table copy of their favorite magazines, but for the most part I think print media is on its way out, including us for that matter. That’s why we’re going up with a digital/online version.” (Thanks Mediabistro.)

See also:

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A passage about genetic engineering from a 1978 Omni interview with Alvin Toffler, which was conducted by leathery beaver merchant Bob Guccione:

Omni:

What’s good about genetic engineering?

Alvin Toffler:

Genetic manipulation can yield cheap insulin. It can probably help us solve the cancer riddle. But, more important, over the very long run it could help us crack the world food problem.

You could radically reduce reliance on artificial fertilizers–which means saving energy and helping the poor nations substantially. You could produce new, fast-growing species. You could create species adapted to lands that are now marginal, infertile, arid, or saline. And if you really let your long-range imagination roam, you can foresee a possible convergence of genetic manipulation, weather modification, and computerized agriculture–all coming together with a wholly new energy system. Such developments would simply remake agriculture as we’ve known it for 10,000 years.

Omni:

What is the downside?

Alvin Toffler:

Horrendous. Almost beyond our imagination, When you cut up genes and splice them together in new ways, you risk the accidental escape from the laboratory of new life forms and the swift spread of new diseases for which the human race no defenses.

As is the case with nuclear energy we have safety guidelines. But no system, in my view, can ever be totally fail-safe. All our safety calculations are based on certain assumptions. The assumptions are reasonable, even conservative. But none of the calculations tell what happens if one of the assumptions turns out to be wrong. Or what to do if a terrorist manages to get a hold of the crucial test tube.

A lot of good people are working to tighten controls in this field. NATO recently issued a report summarizing the steps taken by dozens of countries from the U.S.S.R. to Britain and the U.S. But what do we do about irresponsible corporations or nations who just want to crash ahead? And completely honest, socially responsible geneticists are found on both sides of an emotional debate as to how–or even whether–to proceed.

Farther down the road, you also get into very deep political, philosophical, and ecological issues. Who is to write the evolutionary code of tomorrow? Which species shall live and which shall die out? Environmentalists today worry about vanishing species and the effect of eliminating the leopard or the snail darter from the planet. These are real worries, because every species has a role to play in the overall ecology. But we have not yet begun to think about the possible emergence of new, predesigned species to take their place.”

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As I watch politicians like Mitch McConell and Eric Cantor play obstructionist, slowing down the economy, forcing budget sequestration which will cause people to lose their jobs for no real reason, I think about this:

Since the economic collapse, I’ve spotted an increasing number of slightly ragged adults in NYC aimlessly wheeling a single piece of luggage behind them, unsure of where they’re headed. It’s become too easy to recognize them.

They are not tourists. Life was very different for them not too long ago.

Is it like that where you live?

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From the December 13, 1898 New York Times:

Topeka, Kan.–John Clark, an inmate of the Dodge City Soldiers’ Home, was taken seriously ill recently, and last night the doctors pronounced him dead. He was accordingly prepared for burial, and laid out in the room set apart for that purpose.

Early this morning a commotion was heard, and the watchers, rushing into the chamber of death, found Clark sitting up in his coffin and screaming with terror. Stimulants were administered, and he was at once removed from the coffin and returned to his bed.

Clark says that he has no recollection of the period during which he lay seemingly dead beyond a confused sensation of hunger and a distinct iciness about the feet. He is likely to recover.”

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From a BGR post, Internet pioneer Vint Cerf predicting further applications of Web-based communication:

“One of the Internet’s founding fathers envisions a bright future that one day may involve communicating with animals and even aliens using the Web. During a speech given at the annual TED conference, Internet pioneer Vint Cerf described how technology can be used to communicate with other species, explaining that the Internet isn’t just a way of connecting machines but a way for people to interact.

‘Now what’s important about what these people are doing is that they’re beginning to learn how to communicate with species that are not us — but share a common sensory environment,’ he said about the other event speakers. ‘We’re beginning to explore what it means to communicate with something that isn’t just another person.'”

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Before computing was portable, even pocket-sized, some feared it would create a physical distance among people. If anything, it has birthed an emotional alienation because of its virtual nature, the way it feeds, even encourages, narcissism. We’re more connected, but there are more disconnects. Via theody. net, Kurt Vonnegut, that coot, explaining in 1995 why he never made the switch to word processing:

“I work at home, and if I wanted to, I could have a computer right by my bed, and I’d never have to leave it. But I use a typewriter, and afterward I mark up the pages with a pencil. Then I call up this woman named Carol out in Woodstock and say, ‘Are you still doing typing?’ Sure she is, and her husband is trying to track bluebirds out there and not having much luck, and so we chitchat back and forth, and I say, ‘Okay, I’ll send you the pages.’ Then I go down the steps and my wife calls, ‘Where are you going?’ ‘Well,’ I say, ‘I’m going to buy an envelope.’ And she says, ‘You’re not a poor man. Why don’t you buy a thousand envelopes? They’ll deliver them, and you can put them in the closet.’ And I say, ‘Hush.’ So I go to this newsstand across the street where they sell magazines and lottery tickets and stationery. I have to get in line because there are people buying candy and all that sort of thing, and I talk to them. The woman behind the counter has a jewel between her eyes, and when it’s my turn, I ask her if there have been any big winners lately. I get my envelope and seal it up and go to the postal convenience center down the block at the corner of Forty-seventh Street and Second Avenue, where I’m secretly in love with the woman behind the counter. I keep absolutely poker-faced; I never let her know how I feel about her. One time I had my pocket picked in there and got to meet a cop and tell him about it. Anyway, I address the envelope to Carol in Woodstock. I stamp the envelope and mail it in a mailbox in front of the post office, and I go home. And I’ve had a hell of a good time. I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don’t let anybody tell you any different.”

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