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Lone geniuses exist and are necessary, but they’re few and would never be able to advance society on their own. Progress is a cumulative process. While basic copyright laws are necessary for a stable economy, the human species is (fortunately) wired for imitation. Other animals mostly learn and die, their knowledge gone with them, whereas we can pass along methods and maneuvers. The opening of “Brilliant Impersonators,” Kat McGowan’s Aeon ode to the copycat:

“Imitation might be a form of flattery, but it is also a good way to end up in legal trouble. More than 6,000 lawsuits over patent infringements were filed in the United States last year. Samsung and Apple, locked in what’s been called the bloodiest corporate war in history, have jointly spent more than $1 billion in the past four years trying to prove that one poached the other’s smartphone technology.

In today’s world, inventors are our heroes and our saviours – the geniuses who keep the world economy surging forward, who bring us the newest playthings and the latest comforts. We rely on inventors to build a cleaner, happier, more prosperous future. Copycats are a threat to this cheerful vision. Not for nothing do we call them pirates; by cheating and stealing, copiers undermine the system. By profiting from the hard work of others, they reduce the incentive to create. They are a threat to the social order.

But according to a cluster of like-minded researchers, we’ve misunderstood how innovation really works. Throughout human history, innovation – including the technological progress we cherish – has been fuelled and sustained by imitation. Copying is the mighty force that has allowed the human race to move from stone knives to remote-guided drones, from digging sticks to crops that manufacture their own pesticides. Plenty of animals can innovate, but no other species on earth can imitate with the skill and accuracy of a human being. We’re natural-born rip-off artists. To be human is to copy.”

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Young people, their minds not yet made up, have always been the easiest to recruit, but there’s something different about ISIS poaching the impressionable for extremism, and it’s social networks being repurposed for anti-social behavior. France has been hardest hit, with nearly 1,000 teens and twentysomethings joining the Mideast madness. Two factors overlap many of the cases: The children were headed for careers which could have genuinely helped the world, and they’ve been drawn into the circle of hatred online. We’re all connected now, for better and worse. From Julia Amalia Heyer at Spiegel:

“The number of young people who have become radicalized and have disappeared is rising rapidly. More than 140 families have contacted Bouzar since January 2014.

Radicalization used to be limited to the poor and the uneducated, says Bouzar. Immigrants from Muslim backgrounds were usually the ones who joined jihadist groups. But the situation has changed today, she explains. ‘Now three-quarters of them come from atheist families.’ They include Christians and Jews, and almost all are from the middle class, with some coming from upper-class families, the children of teachers, civil servants and doctors. Bouzar is even familiar with a case involving an elite female university student. It also appears that more and more girls and young women are fantasizing about jihad.

Indoctrination

The Internet and social networks make it easy to indoctrinate young people. In her research, Bouzar discovered that the French-speaking unit of the Al-Nusra Front actually employs headhunters to recruit young women and men.

The process of brainwashing usually follows the same principles, not unlike the approach taken by sects. First the victim, be it a boy or a girl, is isolated from his or her surroundings. The young people are pressured to sever all ties to family and friends. Then the indoctrination begins, through videos about genetically engineered food or alleged conspiracies. The goal is to make the victims believe that the world is evil and that only they have been chosen to make it a better place.

As a result of this brainwashing, the young women and men gradually lose their connection to everyday life and their old identities. Once a new identity has been created, they often see themselves as members of a chosen group of fighters for a better world.

Bouzar has found that the radicalized young women have a common trait: They are all interested in careers in social work or humanitarian aid.”

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In a new Edge discussion about de-extinction, John Brockman asks Stewart Brand about the dangers inherent in the reintroduction of bygone birds and bears into the world, which, you would think, would have some unintended consequences. An excerpt:

John Brockman:

What are the dangers, if any?

Stewart Brand:

The dangers of de-extinction mostly get interpreted in ecological or conservation terms, and mostly by people who are mistakenly worried that nature is really, really fragile. We saw this when a year ago we had a TEDx de-extinction that Ryan organized that had twenty-five scientists holding forth on various aspects of a wide number of projects that are going on—everything from the European aurochs to the Spanish bucardo to the gastric brooding frog in Australia.

Our projects are not the only one. Then the news went out: “De-extinction might happen”, and it was great because it went out in a way that people understood it as a scientific issue. They understood we weren’t going to have dinosaurs. There’s no Jurassic park scenario going to play out. But immediately you would see in these wonderful comment lines after every place online, where the trolls emerge and start fretting, and the hand-wringing would be around, let’s see: what if you bring it back and it turns out to be insanely invasive? And, passenger pigeons, there used to be five billion and suddenly there’s five billion birds crapping on everything, it’ll be like kudzu. Well, actually it’s not an invasive. They were in North America for 22 million years. The invasive in this story is us, and we’re the ones who shot them all to death. If we’ve got an invasive to worry about it’s the human one, which is fair. Nature will accommodate these birds coming back. Nature’s not broken.

Another common comment is that there’s obviously no habitat left for these birds, or for the woolly mammoths, because the world has changed since their day. Again, time machine notions of if you were suddenly thrown into the 15th century or the 24th century, you wouldn’t be able to function because you wouldn’t know how to call a cab. It’s not like that in nature, and things blend in and take time in. Nature is not broken just because humans have been farming for 10,000 years. It is very robust.

What are the real dangers? The real dangers are it won’t work.”

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The original “gone girl,” mystery writer Agatha Christie abandoned her automobile one day in 1926 and vanished without a trace. For 11 days, a large-scale womanhunt fanned across the English countryside, with a thousand police officers and 15,000 volunteers searching for a body, dead or alive. Screaming headlines everywhere expressed concern for her (and provided lurid entertainment). When Christie was discovered alive and living quietly at the Swan Hydropathic Hotel in Yorkshire, the press and people turned, angered by what they thought was perhaps a publicity stunt–and maybe just a little disappointed subconsciously that the story’s final chapter wouldn’t have the worst possible end. Was it martial discord or amnesia or electroshock therapy or something else that drove the novelist from her life? Nobody really knows. Two Brooklyn Daily Eagle articles follow about the aftermath of the case.

From the December 14, 1926 Brooklyn Daily Eagle:

From the December 15, 1926 Brooklyn Daily Eagle:

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Dictaphones and typewriters were becoming office heirlooms decades ago, as demonstrated in this 1976 Canadian Broadcasting Corporation video about the computerized, automated office of tomorrow.

It seems almost impossible that the United States uses less water than it did 45 years ago, but that’s the finding of the Pacific Institute. Growing population and villages of computer servers that need constant cooling would suggest we’re thirstier than ever, but in addition to improved conservation methods, globalization and outsourcing have played roles in the apparent reduction. From Brad Plumer at Vox:

“The US economy keeps expanding and the population keeps growing. But we actually use less water now for all purposes than we did back in 1970. That includes freshwater for our showers and toilets. It includes farm irrigation. It also includes withdrawals of both fresh and saline water to cool our fossil fuel and nuclear power plants.

The underlying data comes from a new report by the US Geological Survey, which notes that water for power plants (45 percent) and irrigation (33 percent) still made up most water withdrawals in the US as of 2010. But use in both of those areas has been declining over time.

Some of the credit goes to major efficiency gains: Power plants have implemented more efficient cooling systems that either recirculate water or use ‘dry’ cooling. More and more farmers are turning to drip irrigation and other efficient watering methods (though this is far from universal). Inside homes, toilets and showers have become much more efficient. And recycling of wastewater has become more common in some cities.

But that’s not the whole story: The USGS also notes that some manufacturing facilities that once used a fair bit of water for industrial purposes have moved overseas.”

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As we become faster, cheaper and even more out of control, as the anarchy of the Internet imposes itself on life in three dimensions, controlling objects, even deadly, semi-automatic ones, will be all but impossible. The future points to things that can be pointed at you–cameras, tricorders, guns, etc. From Andy Greenberg at Wired:

“As 3-D printed guns have evolved over the past 18 months from a science-fictional experiment into a subculture, they’ve faced a fundamental limitation: Cheap plastic isn’t the best material to contain an explosive blast. Now an amateur gunsmith has instead found a way to transfer that stress to a component that’s actually made of metal—the ammunition.

Michael Crumling, a 25-year-old machinist from York, Pennsylvania, has developed a round designed specifically to be fired from 3-D printed guns. His ammunition uses a thicker steel shell with a lead bullet inserted an inch inside, deep enough that the shell can contain the explosion of the round’s gunpowder instead of transferring that force to the plastic body or barrel of the gun. Crumling says that allows a home-printed firearm made from even the cheapest materials to be fired again and again without cracking or deformation. And while his design isn’t easily replicated because the rounds must be individually machined for now, it may represent another step towards durable, practical, printed guns—even semi-automatic ones.”

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Elon Musk, spurred on in part by his reading of Nick Bostrom’s Superintelligence, recently has been warning of the existential crisis Artificial Intelligence poses. In a Slate piece that’s, of course, contrarian, Adam Elkus takes the Tesla technologist to task for what he sees as technopanic. I don’t believe we’ll survive as a species without advanced AI, but it certainly possesses its own extinction threats, and I don’t think there’s anything wrong with leaders in the field addressing them. From Elkus:

“When public figures like Musk characterize emerging technologies in mystical, alarmist, and metaphorical terms, they abandon the very science and technology that forged innovations like Tesla cars for the superstition and ignorance of what Carl Sagan famously dubbed the ‘demon-haunted world.’ Instead of helping users understand, adapt to, and even empathize with the white-collar robot that may be joining their workplace, Musk’s remarks encourage them to fear and despise what they don’t understand. It is fitting that Musk’s remarks come so close to Halloween, as his rhetoric resembles that of the village elder in an old horror movie who whips up the villagers to bear pitchforks and torches to kill the monster in the decrepit old castle up the hill.

The greatest tragedy of the emergent AI technopanic that Musk fuels is that it may reduce human autonomy in a world that may one day be driven by increasingly autonomous machine intelligence. Experts tell us that emerging AI technologies will fundamentally reshape everything from romantic relationships to national security. They could be wrong, as AI has an unfortunate history of failing to live up to expectations. Let’s assume, however, that they are right. Why would it be in the public interest to—through visions of demons, wizards, and warlocks—contribute to an already growing divide between the technologists who make the self-driving cars and the rest of us who will ride in them?”

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I’m sorry, but I’m just not reading books on a phone. Of course, what’s true for me may not be so for the broader world.

From Ellis Hamburger’s Verge interview with Willem Van Lancker, co-founder of the Oyster book app:

Question:

Where are people reading more, tablets, phones, or on the web?

Willem Van Lancker:

We’ve always been really big believers that the device of the future for books is the phone. That’s the first thing we went to publishers with when we started talking about the differentiation of Oyster, that we can provide the best possible mobile experience.

It’s hard to get the data on this with Android, because, what is a tablet? But between iPhone and iPad, it’s a 50 / 50 split. It might even be higher on the phone in recent months over the iPad. This is an app that people use on their phone constantly, and we see the actual activity spiking during the week at lunchtime, and through the evening and peaks around midnight, and on the weekends it’s pretty sustained. Unlike a lot of products, our biggest days are Saturdays and Sundays, but when we added the web reader, you see it spiking on weekdays because people are reading during work.

We thought about making a button you could hit that would make Oyster look like Microsoft Word like they do for March Madness. It would be funny to bring that to books.

Question:

Why did your gut tell you that people are going to be reading on phones in the future?

Willem Van Lancker:

It was my own behavior. Even when I’m in bed at night, I have an iPad mini with Retina and I still use my phone. And I have an iPhone 6 now, which is even better.•

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Robots have entered the service sector through department stores and hotels, and now we can add cruises to the list, with the Bionic Bar aboard the new “smart ship,” Royal Caribbean’s Quantum of the Seas, which employs a “Technology Ambassador.”

The Internet of Things is wonderful–and terrible. How valuable will be the aggregated information when all objects report back to the cloud and the network effect takes hold, and how impossible it will be to opt out, how unfortunately that information will sometimes be used. If we go from the ten million sensors currently connected to the Internet to 100 trillion by 2030 as theorist Jeremy Rifkin predicts, the next digital revolution will have taken place, with all the good and bad that entails. The opening of Sue Halpern’s New York Review of Books analysis of a slew of new titles about how tomorrow may find us all tethered:

“Every day a piece of computer code is sent to me by e-mail from a website to which I subscribe called IFTTT. Those letters stand for the phrase ‘if this then that,’ and the code is in the form of a ‘recipe’ that has the power to animate it. Recently, for instance, I chose to enable an IFTTT recipe that read, ‘if the temperature in my house falls below 45 degrees Fahrenheit, then send me a text message.’ It’s a simple command that heralds a significant change in how we will be living our lives when much of the material world is connected—like my thermostat—to the Internet.

It is already possible to buy Internet-enabled light bulbs that turn on when your car signals your home that you are a certain distance away and coffeemakers that sync to the alarm on your phone, as well as WiFi washer-dryers that know you are away and periodically fluff your clothes until you return, and Internet-connected slow cookers, vacuums, and refrigerators. ‘Check the morning weather, browse the web for recipes, explore your social networks or leave notes for your family—all from the refrigerator door,’ reads the ad for one.

Welcome to the beginning of what is being touted as the Internet’s next wave by technologists, investment bankers, research organizations, and the companies that stand to rake in some of an estimated $14.4 trillion by 2022—what they call the Internet of Things (IoT). Cisco Systems, which is one of those companies, and whose CEO came up with that multitrillion-dollar figure, takes it a step further and calls this wave ‘the Internet of Everything,’ which is both aspirational and telling. The writer and social thinker Jeremy Rifkin, whose consulting firm is working with businesses and governments to hurry this new wave along, describes it like this:

The Internet of Things will connect every thing with everyone in an integrated global network. People, machines, natural resources, production lines, logistics networks, consumption habits, recycling flows, and virtually every other aspect of economic and social life will be linked via sensors and software to the IoT platform, continually feeding Big Data to every node—businesses, homes, vehicles—moment to moment, in real time. Big Data, in turn, will be processed with advanced analytics, transformed into predictive algorithms, and programmed into automated systems to improve thermodynamic efficiencies, dramatically increase productivity, and reduce the marginal cost of producing and delivering a full range of goods and services to near zero across the entire economy.

In Rifkin’s estimation, all this connectivity will bring on the ‘Third Industrial Revolution,’ poised as he believes it is to not merely redefine our relationship to machines and their relationship to one another, but to overtake and overthrow capitalism once the efficiencies of the Internet of Things undermine the market system, dropping the cost of producing goods to, basically, nothing. His recent book, The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism, is a paean to this coming epoch.

It is also deeply wishful, as many prospective arguments are, even when they start from fact.”

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A terrorist remotely taking control of a plane is very, very unlikely. Hacking into the system and causing a crash-inducing error (or threatening to activate one to demand ransom) is possible but also not the easiest thing to do at this point. An employee introducing a “ghost” into the machine from the inside is the simplest way to hijack a modern airplane through an act of digital terrorism. That hasn’t happened yet, has it? Has it??? From the Economist:

“How realistic is it for computer hackers to interfere with aircraft while they are in the air, a phenomenon known as cyberjacking? It partly depends on terminology. Hijacking and fully controlling an aircraft by remote means borders on the impossible, according to David Stupples of City University in London, a specialist in communications. But interfering with an aircraft’s systems, including inducing a catastrophic failure, in order to extort money is a distinct possibility, he warns.

There are two ways this could be done, one more likely than the other. The first is a cyber attack from the outside. Passengers increasingly demand internet connectivity for work, games, movies and the like. But drilling holes in fuselages for additional antennae is costly and inefficient. So internet signals are routed through existing communications architecture, such as the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS), which is used for short messages, or the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), an anti-collision system. As these both send and receive information they can, in theory, be targetted. When aircraft become more connected to the wider world they begin to look, electronically at least, like fixed structures. If banks can be hacked, why not aircraft?

Yet such an attack from outside is unlikely due to the technical challenges of overcoming software architectures that, unlike banks, are currently unfamiliar and largely bespoke. It would be far easier to pay a disgruntled employee to implant malware either directly into the aircraft during a maintenance routine or through the jetway when the aircraft docks to upload the In-Flight Entertainment (IFE) system. (The IFE on the Boeing 787 used to link to the flight control system, but the company have since rectified this, according to Mr Stupples.) Just the threat of activating such a program when a flight is in the air could be enough to trigger a ransom.

So why hasn’t it happened yet?”

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On the face of it, the Multiverse seems so very sci-fi-ish, but common sense tells us how unlikely it is that life on Earth turned out how it has. If there were trillions upon trillions of chances humans with smartphones and lattes would result, that would be more plausible. Natalie Wolchover and Peter Byrne’s Quanta article looks at the growing acceptance of the many-universe theory and the difficulties in making measure of it. The opening:

“If modern physics is to be believed, we shouldn’t be here. The meager dose of energy infusing empty space, which at higher levels would rip the cosmos apart, is a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion times tinier than theory predicts. And the minuscule mass of the Higgs boson, whose relative smallness allows big structures such as galaxies and humans to form, falls roughly 100 quadrillion times short of expectations. Dialing up either of these constants even a little would render the universe unlivable.

To account for our incredible luck, leading cosmologists like Alan Guth and Stephen Hawking envision our universe as one of countless bubbles in an eternally frothing sea. This infinite ‘multiverse’ would contain universes with constants tuned to any and all possible values, including some outliers, like ours, that have just the right properties to support life. In this scenario, our good luck is inevitable: A peculiar, life-friendly bubble is all we could expect to observe.

Many physicists loathe the multivere hypothesis, deeming it a cop-out of infinite proportions. But as attempts to paint our universe as an inevitable, self-contained structure falter, the multiverse camp is growing.

The problem remains how to test the hypothesis.”

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Despite, you know, the issues, I’m happy there’s a World Wide Web, understanding how much it’s enriched my life with its trove of information. Sir Tim Berners-Lee, who gifted the globe with double-yous, spoke about his creation and other topics with Lucy Ingham of Factor-Tech. A passage about AI:

“Turning his attention to artificial intelligence, Berners-Lee argues that it was, more or less, already here.

‘Yes, you don’t have a completely human-like assistant helping you with everything,’ he says. ‘But originally, 20 years ago they taught in schools that there are things that people can do and things that computers can do.

‘Computers can do calculations; computers can do lots of data. People can do intuitive things like music and play chess. People can do things which need really sort of very powerful parallel processing, like driving a car, which is the sort of thing that computing can never do.

‘Ok, hello? A large number of those things which were up there as challenging for artificial intelligence actually have quietly gone by. AI has done that.’

In the future, Berners-Lee sees AI dominating communications.

‘As the machines get more powerful, and in something like financial trading in a lot of companies the work is all done by machines. The machines are making the trading decisions, the machines are basically running the company. So that means that communication out there is largely going to be machine communication – it’s going to be data.'”

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Tubes would eventually bring mail to every home, but they weren’t of the pneumatic variety. In a predictive piece he wrote for the December 30, 1900 Brooklyn Daily Eagle, U.S. Postmaster General Charles Emory Smith offered that the type of pneumatic tubing system utilized in early-1900s New York City might someday be linked to every individual residence. He was right in the big picture, even if he got the details wrong.

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One thing that drove me crazy during the 2012 Presidential debates was Mitt Romney myopically (and incorrectly) stating that the government’s loan to Tesla Motors was a boondoggle. Not only are such investments wise for business, they’re also matters of national security. Whatever country wins the race to alternative energy and robotics and AI will be the most secure. In a blog post at the Financial Times, Andrew McAfee handicaps the potential leaders of, as he calls it, the Second Machine Age. The opening:

“How much should it worry Germany that the world’s coolest car company no longer hails from that country?

This question occurred to me as I sat in a meeting a short time ago with a senior figure responsible for Germany’s economic growth and future trajectory. He was confident that his country’s many strengths would allow it to continue to prosper, and to lead in what it has labelled ‘Industry 4.0.’ This is the anticipated fourth industrial revolution (after the ones powered by steam; electricity and the internal combustion engine; and the computer) during which the real and virtual worlds will merge.

I believe this merger is coming, and coming fast. But who’s going to lead it? Which country’s companies will grow by creating new markets and disrupting existing ones? These questions matter not just because national pride is at stake, but also because national prosperity is.

Consumers around the world will benefit no matter where the next set of profound innovations originates. To some extent the same is true for investors, who can now invest in markets and companies far from home. Citizens and workers, however, do best when their countries are the ones doing the most to create the future. These countries tend to grow more quickly, expanding the tax base, job opportunities, and overall affluence.

Because it was the birthplace of the first industrial revolution, Britain pulled away from the rest of Europe during the 19th century. America then took over, becoming the world’s largest and most productive economy at the start of the 20th century as it developed many of the breakthroughs of the second and third. Will the lead change hands again as we head into Industry 4.0, the Second Machine Age, or whatever you want to call it?”

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Pioneering and vacationing in the same wilderness is always a dicey proposition, since trailblazers expect hardships and danger while pleasure seekers do not–and the stakes have never been higher than in outer space. It would seem to make sense to limit the peril to those actually endeavoring to colonize these new worlds, a very important mission, and to leave the sightseeing for a time in the future. But it can be argued that space tourism will normalize and improve what may be a species-saving process. From Andrew Edgecliffe-Johnson’s Financial Times interview with Richard Branson, conducted just prior to the Virgin Galactic disaster:

“Our lunch falls in the middle of a typical Branson week. It began in Montreal with a meeting of his charitable foundation, Virgin Unite, then moved to Toronto for the launch of a Virgin Mobile training programme for homeless Canadians. He is in New York to hold a press conference for the Global Commission on Drug Policy, a group including nine former world leaders that favours decriminalising drug use.

Next he will be off to Washington for breakfast with Republican senator Rand Paul, before heading for a spin in a ‘centrifuge gondola’ near Philadelphia to prepare his body for the stresses of a long-awaited suborbital space flight with Virgin Galactic, which he dubs ‘the world’s first commercial spaceline.’ Somewhere between these public appearances, he will also find time to run the eclectic collection of airlines, train operators, gyms, mobile phone businesses, radio stations, music festivals and banks that have built a fortune Forbes estimates at $5bn.

In person, Branson is an almost shy showman. He has barely made eye contact from under his sweep of silver-gold hair. Wearing a dark blazer with two shirt buttons undone and cuffs open at the wrist, he plays with a pen while he talks about his next adventure.

He has performed his fair share of stomach-turning exploits in hot-air balloons, high-speed boats and the like. But, at 64, he knows that going into space will put different strains on his frame. ‘There’s eight seconds where you go from nought to 3,500mph,’ he says. At 4.5 G-force, ‘you’re going to feel it on your body.’

His dream of experiencing ‘the overview effect’ that astronauts talk of when they see the planet from afar has been delayed by about seven years, but his best guess now is that in March next year he and his son Sam, 29, will lift off from the ‘spaceport’ in New Mexico.”

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Another Facebook “social experiment,” one which took place in 2012, saw the social-media company quietly manipulate users’ feeds, inserting more hard news, which apparently spurred more of the “subjects” to vote. The results are interesting, the methods dubious. From Micah L. Sifry at Mother Jones:

“Facebook has studied how changes in the news feed seen by its users—the constant drip-drip-drip of information shared by friends that is heart of their Facebook experience—can affect their level of interest in politics and their likelihood of voting. For one such experiment, conducted in the three months prior to Election Day in 2012, Facebook increased the amount of hard news stories at the top of the feeds of 1.9 million users. According to one Facebook data scientist, that change—which users were not alerted to—measurably increased civic engagement and voter turnout. 

Facebook officials insist there’s nothing untoward going on. But for several years, the company has been reluctant to answer questions about its voter promotion efforts and these research experiments. It was only as I was putting the finishing touches on this article that Facebook started to provide some useful new details on its election work and research.

So what has Facebook been doing to boost voter participation, and why should anyone worry about it?”

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Uber and Lyft and the like can go the way of Napster, but the Sharing Economy will still disrupt the taxi sector the way file-sharing did the music industry. It’s not about any one company but the larger wave. In music, it’s been a mixed blessing: The structure of distribution improved greatly, but the content makers themselves were devastated. It may be a similar situation with car service: Summoning a ride with a smartphone and paying without cash is wonderful, though medallion owners may be ruined and a lack of regulation may eventually be painfully costly.

While Uber is currently be playing rough in Los Angeles, that autopocalypse is the American city ridesharing can transform more than any other. From Melena Ryzik in the New York Times:

Los Angeles — When Ryan O’Connell, 28, moved here from New York last year, he didn’t want a car. ‘I’ve always been so scared of driving,’ he said. ‘I feel like I would be a bad driver.’

Normally, that would be a problem in one of America’s most auto-centric places, where cruising along the Sunset Strip is a lifestyle and cars are not only a means of transportation but a status symbol. But Mr. O’Connell was only briefly perplexed.

‘I didn’t know what I was going to do,’ he said, ‘and then Uber descended from the gods.’

These days, he uses Uber, the smartphone-enabled car service app, as much as three times a day, Mr. O’Connell said the other day, sitting with friends by the rooftop bar at the Ace Hotel Downtown Los Angeles, a popular Uber destination. He takes it from his home in West Hollywood, Calif., to his job, as a writer for the MTV series Awkward in Hollywood, and out for drinks after work. His roommate and best friend has a car, and yet they rely on Uber to get around on weekends.”

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You can (mostly) opt out of the new surveillance state for now, but for how long? Part of your payment these days for almost any service is your personal information, which can be repurposed. That scenario is going to stretch until it blankets the globe.

In the short run, a market might arise which would sell appliances with many of the same functions as smart ones without the digital trail. But you’ll have to sacrifice some utility if you aren’t willing to let the TV watch you while you watch the TV. And eventually you’ll have to opt in if you want to plug in. From Michael Price at Salon:

“I just bought a new TV. The old one had a good run, but after the volume got stuck on 63, I decided it was time to replace it. I am now the owner of a new ‘smart’ TV, which promises to deliver streaming multimedia content, games, apps, social media and Internet browsing. Oh, and TV too.

The only problem is that I’m now afraid to use it. You would be too — if you read through the 46-page privacy policy.

The amount of data this thing collects is staggering. It logs where, when, how and for how long you use the TV. It sets tracking cookies and beacons designed to detect ‘when you have viewed particular content or a particular email message.’ It records ‘the apps you use, the websites you visit, and how you interact with content.’ It ignores ‘do-not-track’ requests as a considered matter of policy.

It also has a built-in camera — with facial recognition.”

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In “When Can We Expect Truly Autonomous Vehicles?,” Irving Wladawsky-Berger’s WSJ piece, the author thinks the transition will be incremental (something already happening) and won’t be fully operational once inter-automobile communication becomes standard (something yet to happen). The opening:

“A few weeks ago I attended MIT’s Second Machine Age Conference, where I heard a number of very interesting presentations on the evolution of AI, robotics, and other advanced technologies. The prospects for truly autonomous vehicles was one of the main topics of discussion. With most other topics, there was considerable audience consensus, but not so with self-driving cars. While many thought that fully autonomous vehicles will be all around us within a decade, others, myself included, were not quite so sure due to the many technical and societal issues involved.

What do we really mean by self-driving cars? There seems to be no precise definition. Are we talking about a human driver assisted by all kinds of advanced technologies, or is there no driver whatsoever? Will such vehicles operate amidst regular human-driven ones, or will they be confined to special lanes equipped with sophisticated navigational technologies? And, is self-driving per se the actual objective, or is it a metaphor for the development of near-crashless cars, regardless of whether human drivers are still in the picture?

These questions are not surprising given the very early stages of such a complex area. When exciting new initiatives are first launched, we sometimes describe them using an attention-grabbing phrase that, while potentially unattainable in practice, should be taken more as a marketing pointer to a general direction rather than as a realistic near-term objective.

For example, in the early 1980s the paperless office became a metaphor for the PC-based office of the future. The past 30 years have seen major transformations in just about every aspect of the office, including the very nature of work. But, we have come nowhere near getting rid of paper. In fact, printers, copiers and scanners are all around us. The office of the future is alive and well, but no one seems to mind that the paperless office never really came about.”

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The Wright Brothers seemingly ceased to exist the moment after the Flyer lifted off in Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, in 1903, frozen forever in the moment of their greatest accomplishment, the height of their careers. Wilbur, the elder, died of typhoid inside of a decade. Orville, who manned the landmark flights, never handled the controls again after 1918. (Howard Hughes was the pilot for his last air trip as a passenger in 1944.) Perhaps because of competing claims to the title of “first flight” or maybe because the supersonic age had passed him by, Orville’s obituary in the January 31, 1948 Brooklyn Daily Eagle didn’t have the fanfare one might expect. 

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In Douglas Coupland’s latest Financial Times column, he ruminates on the meaning of Silicon Valley, a part of California state as well as a state of mind, including his surprisingly positive feelings for the Segway, which has thus far been only nominally more popular than G.R. Gooch’s 1842 walking machine, the Aeripidis. The opening:

“I’ve found that if you ask most anyone to locate Silicon Valley on a globe, they pause for about 15 seconds, say umm, and then hesitantly put their finger down somewhere a little bit north of Los Angeles. They then apologise for being clueless and ask where it really is – and are often surprised it’s up near San Francisco. I think it’s because for most people Silicon Valley is largely a state of mind more than it is a real place… a strip-malled Klondike of billionaires with proprioception issues, clad in khakis, in groups of three, awkwardly lumbering across a six-lane traffic artery with a grass median berm, all to get in on the two-for-one Mexi-burrito special at Chili’s before the promotion ends next Tuesday.

I’ve many happy memories of the Valley. One afternoon, in a long-ago world called Before-Nine-Eleven, I’d park my car just in Menlo Park, on the other side of Interstate 280, just west of the Sand Hill Road exit, the Valley’s venture capital capital. Walking through what seemed to be a Christmas tree farm, I’d arrive at a chain-link fence with a Department of Energy warning sign, walk through its many breaches, and sit beside the Stanford Linear Accelerator, two miles long and operational since 1966. I don’t know what I was expecting to see but it was nice to lie in the grass like Tom Sawyer and imagine positrons committing suicide while a Cooper’s hawk soared high above, scoping out the freeway for roadkill.

I remember the month the Segway came out and an annoyingly rich Palo Alto friend (who lived in a massive apartment furnished only with a folding lawn chair, a card table and a $500,000 flight simulator) bought a fleet of 10. That night a group of us rode up Page Mill Road to the parking lot of the now-closed Wall Street Journal printing plant and then we started going overground, over the endless roadside berms that define the Valley’s aesthetic. Talk about a dorkfest, but it was fun and I still think the Segway is the transportation of the future. How did they blow it? These things are great.”

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Right now in California, homeowners are repurposing Tesla car batteries to help convert their homes to solar, and as alternative energies and batteries keep improving and becoming more cost-efficient, more people will opt out of the power grid. The opening of a story on the topic from Mark Chediak at Bloomberg:

“David Greene woke up one day and fired his power company. It wasn’t that hard to do.

Greene, 48, is neither a hippie nor a survivalist and his environmental leanings are middle of the road. He runs an air-conditioning repair service out of his home and lives in the suburbs, not the woods.

It’s just that his three-bedroom house near Honolulu is in a place with America’s highest electricity rates — 38 cents a kilowatt-hour compared with the 13-cent national average. Fed up, Greene put solar panels on his roof and batteries in the garage to store the excess juice. He told his utility to come get his power meter.

‘I enjoy being off the grid,’ Greene said. ‘It’s an independence thing. It’s cool to say you don’t have an electric bill.’

Even better, Greene calculates he’s spent about $58,000 on a system that will pay for itself in six to eight years — factoring in that he now mostly avoids gas stations by charging his hybrid Toyota Prius from the rooftop solar system.

Greene remains something of an outlier. While there are no official U.S. government estimates of how many Americans live off the power grid, the Snowmass, Colorado-based Rocky Mountain Institute says anecdotal evidence suggests it’s much less than one percent of the nation’s utility customers. About 147 million people get their power from the grid, according to data from the American Public Power Association.”

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In a Financial Times interview conducted by Richard Waters, Larry Page discusses the Bell Labs ambitions of Google, the search giant that aims to remake itself in radically different ways. He also concurs with the current conventional wisdom that says consumer prices are about to markedly shrink and that will make up for technological unemployment. An excerpt:

Some of Google’s own big bets are in areas that he describes as being at the “fringes” – things that seem open to a technological solution but which, for some reason, have not received concerted attention. As examples, he picks self-driving cars and the diseases that afflict older people – the latter a field that his wife worked in at a lab at Stanford University. “It wasn’t a high-status thing,” he says. Through a new biotech arm called Calico, Google is now planning to plough hundreds of millions of dollars of its own into the area.

“We do benefit from the fact that once we say we’re going to do it, people believe we can do it, because we have the resources,” he says. “Google helps in that way: there aren’t many funding mechanisms like that.”

But compared with its heady early days, when every brash initiative was welcomed by an adoring public with the indulgence of a parent celebrating a child’s finger paintings, the onrush of technological change has started to stir up fear.

“I think people see the disruption but they don’t really see the positive,” says Page. “They don’t see it as a life-changing kind of thing . . . I think the problem has been people don’t feel they are participating in it.”

A perennial optimist when it comes to technology, he argues that all that will change. Rapid improvements in artificial intelligence, for instance, will make computers and robots adept at most jobs. Given the chance to give up work, nine out of 10 people “wouldn’t want to be doing what they’re doing today.”

What of people who might regret losing their work? Once jobs have been rendered obsolete by technology, there is no point wasting time hankering after them, says Page. “The idea that everyone should slavishly work so they do something inefficiently so they keep their job – that just doesn’t make any sense to me. That can’t be the right answer.”

He sees another boon in the effect that technology will have on the prices of many everyday goods and services. A massive deflation is coming: “Even if there’s going to be a disruption on people’s jobs, in the short term that’s likely to be made up by the decreasing cost of things we need, which I think is really important and not being talked about.”

New technologies will make businesses not 10 per cent, but 10 times more efficient, he says. Provided that flows through into lower prices: “I think the things you want to live a comfortable life could get much, much, much cheaper.”

Collapsing house prices could be another part of this equation. Even more than technology, he puts this down to policy changes needed to make land more readily available for construction. Rather than exceeding $1m, there’s no reason why the median home in Palo Alto, in the heart of Silicon Valley, shouldn’t cost $50,000, he says.•

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