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The emotional cost of robocar accidents will probably be high, much in the same way that airplane crashes, seldom though they occur, cause panic and terror while run-of-the-mill lethal car accidents are accepted as normal. That’s because airplanes (and driverless cars, eventually) are beyond our control. Such accidents don’t happen because of us, but to us. It’s something we have to constantly arrange and rearrange in our minds.

But beyond the emotional questions, who (or what) will actually be legally liable when automatic autos collide? From Brad Templeton’s answer to that question:

“People often ask who would get sued in a robocar accident. They wonder if it will be the occupant/passenger/driver, or the car company, or perhaps the software developer or some component maker. They are concerned that this is the major ‘blocking’ issue to resolve before cars can operate on the road.

The real answer, at least in the USA and many other countries, is that in the early years, everybody will get sued. There will be no shortage of lawyers out to make a reputation on an early case here, and several defendants in every case. It’s also quite probable that it will be the occupant of a robocar suing the makers of the car, with no 3rd party involved.

One thing that’s very likely to be new about a robocar accident is that the car will have made detailed sensor recordings of the event. That means a 360 degree 3-D view of everything, as well as some video. That means the ability to play back the accident from any viewpoint, and to even look inside the software and see what it was doing. Robocar developers all want these logs, at least during the long development and improvement cycle. Eventually owners of robocars should be able to turn off logging, but that will take some time, and the first accidents will be exquisitely logged.

This means that there will be little difficulty figuring out which parties in the accident violated the vehicle code and/or were responsible in the traditional sense for the accident. Right away, we’ll know who was where they should not have been, and as such, unlike regular accidents, there will be no argument on these points.

If it turns out that the robocar was in the wrong, it is likely that the combination of parties associated with the car, in association with their insurers, will immediately offer a very reasonable settlement. If they are doing their job and reducing accidents, and meeting their projections for how much they are reducing them, the cost of such settlements will have been factored into the insured risk projections, and payment for this reduced number of accidents will be done as it always is by insurers, or possibly a self-insured equivalent.

That’s why the question of ‘who is liable?’ is much less important than people imagine.”

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Chestnut trees, with artificially adjusted genes, are now being planted in America, where they’ve been besieged by fungus for decades. From the Economist:

“ONCE upon a time, according to folklore, a squirrel could travel through America’s chestnut forests from Maine to Florida without ever touching the ground. The chestnut population of North America was reckoned then to have been about 4 billion trees. No longer. Axes and chainsaws must take a share of the blame. But the principal culprit is Cryphonectria parasitica, the fungus that causes chestnut blight. In the late 19th century, some infected saplings from Asia brought C. parasitica to North America. By 1950 the chestnut was little more than a memory in most parts of the continent.

American chestnuts may, however, be about to rise again—thanks to genetic engineering. This month three experimental patches will be planted, under the watchful eye of the Department of Agriculture, in Georgia, New York and Virginia. Along with their normal complements of genes, these trees have been fitted with a handful of others that researchers hope will protect them from the fungus.”

According to Jonathan Alter’s forthcoming book on the 2012 Presidential election, Steve Jobs, who loathed Fox News, personally ordered all Apple advertising from the truth-challenged cable station. From Paul McNamara at Network World:

As relates to his previously documented loathing of Fox News, it’s now known that the late Steve Jobs backed up his harsh words by wisely withholding Apple’s advertising dollars, according to an upcoming book about the 2012 presidential campaign.

The book’s author, Jonathan Alter, a Bloomberg political columnist and contributor to MSNBC, tells of Jobs ‘personally ordering that Apple ads be removed from Fox News,’ according to a blog post in the New York Times over the weekend. Alter’s book, The Center Holds: Obama and His Enemies, is scheduled to hit stores June 4.

That the Apple co-founder held Fox News in low regard has been publicly known since the publication of Walter Isaacson’s authorized biography in October 2011. Here’s the key passage recounting a conversation Jobs had with Rupert Murdoch, chairman and CEO of News Corp., which owns Fox News:

‘You’re blowing it with Fox News,’ Jobs told him over dinner. ‘The axis today is not liberal and conservative, the axis is constructive-destructive, and you’ve cast your lot with the destructive people. Fox has become an incredibly destructive force in our society. You can be better, and this is going to be your legacy if you’re not careful.’ Jobs said he thought Murdoch did not really like how far Fox had gone too far.”

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Marshall McLuhan thought traditional education was dead as soon as the Industrial Age began changing into a Digital one, thanks to TV’s potential to bring answers more directly to students of all ages. While his contemporary Ivan Illich thought we should shutter the schools, McLuhan favored a modernized Socratic method rather than repetition and memorization. Television turned out to be largely a false god, but the Internet is the real deal, both holy and unholy–abundant and interactive and interconnected and always quietly taking as much as it gives. What will become of the classrooms?

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I prefer not to, said Bartleby, the Scrivener, a dead-letter-office employee burdened by apathy, perhaps possessing the most horrible truth. But Bartleby wouldn’t have the option of refusal today. He’s been replaced by a machine that never says ‘no,’ not so far at least. The opening of an article by Ron Nixon of the New York Times about the death of the dead letter office:

SALT LAKE CITY — Inside a plain warehouselike office building filled with rows of cubicles, Melissa Stark stares at the image of an envelope on a computer screen. The handwriting is barely legible and appears to be addressed to someone in the ‘cty of Jesey.’

‘Is that a 7 or a 9 in the address?’ Ms. Stark said to no one in particular. Then she typed in a few numbers and a list of possible addresses popped up on her screen. ‘Looks like a 9,’ she said before selecting an address, apparently in Jersey City. The letter disappears and another one appears on the screen.

‘That means I got it right,’ Ms. Stark said.

Ms. Stark is one of the Postal Service’s data conversion operators, a techie title for someone who deciphers unreadable addresses, and she is one of the last of a breed. In September, the post office will close one of its two remaining centers where workers try to read the scribble on envelopes and address labels that machines cannot. At one time, there were 55 plants around the country where addresses rejected by machines were guessed at by workers aided with special software to get the mail where it was intended.

But improved scanning technology now allows machines to ‘read’ virtually all of the 160 billion pieces of mail that moved through the system last year. As machines have improved, workers have been let go, and after September, the facility here will be the post office’s only center for reading illegible mail.”

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Alec Ash of the Los Angeles Review of Books has an interview with science-fiction author Fei Dao of China, arguably the most sci-fi place on Earth right now, a nation careering wildly into its future, though oddly mostly utilizing pieces of the Western industrial past to get there. So far, at least. An excerpt:

Question: 

What is unique or particular about Chinese science fiction?

Fei Dao:

Chinese sci fi has about a hundred years of history. When it started, in the late Qing dynasty around 1902, it was chiefly concerned with the problem of bringing ancient China into modernity. At that time, Liang Qichao [translated sci fi] because he thought it would be beneficial for China’s future … as something that could popularize scientific knowledge. And Lu Xun thought that if you gave ordinary people scientific literature to read, they would fall asleep. But if you blended scientific knowledge into stories with a plot, it would be more interesting. [He thought that] in this way, the people could become more modern.

So at that time science fiction was a very serious thing to do in China that could allow ordinary people to get closer to modern scientific knowledge, and serve as a tool for transforming traditional culture into modern culture. It played a very important role, and had a serious mission to accomplish.

Today, there is a commercial publishing market for sci fi, and people don’t have such weighty expectations of literature, yet authors are still discussing serious topics. Three Body by Liu Cixin or Subway (地铁) by Han Song both have many reflections about the direction of this country and of humanity. So this kind of writing can convey concerns about the future, or discuss the current situation in China.

For example, Han Song’s Subway is about a subway station. In China, subway systems are an emblem of modernization. Many cities in China are building huge subway systems, because to have one or not is the standard of a city’s modernity and development. So in discussing this symbol, Han Song seized on a sensitive point. After publishing Subway, he wrote another book called Highspeed Rail (高铁), another emblem of technological innovation. So Han Song is consistently concerned with the potential catastrophes of the process of modernization.

Liu Cixin, on the other hand, is expressing a more grand feeling of the universe in the tradition of Western sci fi. In doing so, he wants Chinese people to look up at the sky, and not just be concerned with earthly matters. The mainstream of Chinese literature is about real-world subject matter, such as the countryside or urban life. Very few people are concerned with the fate of humankind, the future of the universe, or even aliens. These things are themselves alien to Chinese readers, but can be introduced through this kind of writing.

I think that the key theme of Chinese science fiction, no matter how it develops, is how this ancient country and its people are moving in the direction of the future.”

Gerrymandering has allowed an out-of-favor political party to control Congress, to stem the flow of economic revival for all but a few in an extremely top-heavy American economic recovery. From Gillian Tett is the Financial Times:

“A few weeks ago, when I was chatting with the head of one of America’s largest food and drink companies, he made a revealing comment about data flows. Like most consumer groups, this particular company is currently spending a lot of money to monitor its customers with big data.

But it is not simply watching what they do or do not buy. These days it is increasingly scrutinizing the micro-level details of pay and benefit cycles in every district in America. The reason? Before 2007, this executive said, consumer spending on food and drink was fairly stable during the month in most US cities. But since 2007, spending patterns have become extremely volatile. More and more consumers appear to be living hand-to-mouth, buying goods only when their pay checks, food stamps or benefit money arrive. And this change has not simply occurred in the poorest areas: even middle-class districts are prone to these swings. Hence the need to study local pay and benefit cycles.

‘We see a pronounced difference between how people are shopping today and before the recession,’ the executive explained. ‘Consumers are living pay check by pay check, and they tend to spend accordingly. Then you have 50 million people on food stamps and that has cycles too. So for our business it has become critical to understand the cycle – when pay [and benefit] checks are arriving.'”

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About a decade ago, I was forced at gunpoint to write a magazine article about pornography entering the American cultural mainstream, which had been a trope of glossies for a few decades but seemed particularly relevant at that moment. Looking back on it, I know I missed one of the main points. Writers, photographers and filmmakers explained to me why porn stars and obscene art were becoming more commonplace and acceptable, but almost all of them told me that there were limits, that we would never see anything X-rated on television, the most important medium.

Of course, in retrospect, they may have been right that porn wouldn’t enter prime time on TV, but the larger, unstated  point was that television wasn’t going to be anywhere close to the dominant medium for much longer because it was so centrally controlled. The Internet and online video and streaming were greatly reducing the importance of TV, and soon it would always be prime time and whatever you wanted, blue or otherwise, would be available at every second.

From a Telegraph article in which Eric Schmidt points out the obvious–that TV has already replaced by freer and more interactive platforms:

“Speaking at a gathering of digital advertisers in New York City last night, Mr Schmidt refused to forecast when internet video would displace television, instead declaring: ‘That’s already happened.’

‘It’s not a replacement for something that we know,” he added. “It’s a new thing that we have to think about, to program, to curate and build new platforms.”

YouTube recently surpassed the milestone of a billion unique users a month. Only the Google search engine and social network Facebook are frequented more often by those browsing the internet worldwide.”

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Fitting dementia patients with a GPS so that they can be monitored and recovered doesn’t seem like such a bad idea to me, but Sussex police have gotten a strong reaction to such a scheme. From the Guardian:

“Police have defended a ‘barbaric’ decision to buy GPS locating devices to trace people with dementia who disappear.

Sussex police have bought six battery-powered locators as part of a attempt to save money and time spent on searching for dementia patients.

The National Pensioners Convention described the introduction of the devices as ‘barbaric’ and suggested people could be stigmatized and made to feel like criminals.

But Sergeant Suzie Mitchell said: ‘The scheme is only costing Sussex police a few hundred pounds but, comparing this to police time, resources, potential risk to the missing person, let alone the anxiety and worry for their family, it is, in my opinion, a few hundred pounds well spent.'”

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How can privacy be a thing anymore when robots look like insects, when they can be programmed to fly into any open window? And that’s not even considering actual insects being controlled remotely, being genetically modified to follow orders. The opening of a story at Harvard’s site about a robotic insect making its first controlled flight:

“Last summer, in a Harvard robotics laboratory, an insect took flight. Half the size of a paper clip, weighing less than a tenth of a gram, it leapt a few inches, hovered for a moment on fragile, flapping wings, and then sped along a preset route through the air.

Like a proud parent watching a child take its first steps, graduate student Pakpong Chirarattananon immediately captured a video of the fledgling and emailed it to his adviser and colleagues at 3 a.m. — subject line: ‘Flight of the RoboBee.’

‘I was so excited, I couldn’t sleep,’ recalls Chirarattananon, co-lead author of a paper published this week in Science.”

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Hunger artists, professionals fasters who would display themselves before dime-museum audiences as they gradually starved over many weeks, were once popular in sideshows and with Kafka, That “entertainment” died out, but fasting is in vogue again, this time for health rather than curiosity. At Aeon, S. Abbas Raza investigates the new no-food trend. The opening: 

“It all began in March last year when I read an article by Steve Hendricks in Harper’s magazine titled ‘Starving Your Way to Vigour’. Hendricks examined the health benefits of fasting, including long-term reduced seizure activity in epileptics, lowered blood pressure in hypertensives, better toleration of chemotherapy in cancer patients, and, of course, weight loss. He also mentioned significantly increased longevity in rats that are made to fast. Most interesting was his tale of undertaking a 20-day fast himself, during which he shed more than 20 pounds and kept it off for the two years since. I was fascinated, and I started reading more about fasting afterwards, although at the time I had no intention of doing it myself.

The benefits of fasting have been much in the news again lately, in part due to a best-selling book from the UK that is also making waves in the US: The Fast Diet: Lose Weight, Stay Healthy, Live Longer (2013) by Dr Michael Mosley and Mimi Spencer. Mosley is a BBC health and science journalist who extols the benefits of ‘intermittent fasting’. There are many versions of this type of fasting that are currently the subject of various research programs, but Mosley settled on the 5:2 ratio — in every week, two days of fasting, and five days of normal eating. Even on the fasting days, one may eat small amounts: 600 calories maximum for men, 500 for women, so about a quarter of a normal day’s intake. Mosley’s claim is that such a ‘feast or famine’ regime closely matches the food consumption patterns of pre-modern societies, and our bodies are designed to optimize such eating. Drawing on various research projects studying intermittent fasting and weight loss, cholesterol levels and so on, he argues that even after quite short periods of fasting, our bodies turn off fat-storing mechanisms and switch to a fat-burning ‘repair-and-recover’ mode. Mosley says that he himself lost 20lbs in nine weeks on the diet, bringing his percentage of body fat from 28 to 20 per cent. He says his blood glucose went from ‘diabetic to normal’, and that his cholesterol levels also declined from levels that needed medication to normal. He also says that he feels much more energetic since.”

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This epoch in America will likely be remembered for our great divide–economically, scientifically, culturally and educationally. These aren’t the worst of times, but they are the best of times for fewer and fewer. From Jordan Weissmann at the Atlantic, a passage about the top-heavy success of our educational system:

“When you look at the average performance of American students on international test scores, our kids come off as a pretty middling bunch. If you rank countries based on their very fine differences, we come in 14th in reading, 23rd in science, and 25th in math. Those finishes led Secretary of Education Arne Duncan to flatly declare that ‘we’re being out-educated.’

And on average, maybe we are. But averages also sometimes obscure more than they reveal. My colleague Derek Thompson has written before about how, once you compare students from similar income and class backgrounds, our relative performance improves dramatically, suggesting that our educational problems may be as much about our sheer number of poor families as our supposedly poor schools. This week, I stumbled on another data point that belies the stereotype of dimwitted American teens. 

When it comes to raw numbers, it turns out we generally have far more top performers than any other developed nation.”

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Excerpts from smart posts on two blogs at Smithsonian, one about the tortured history of Los Angeles public transportation and the other about the future of job interviews.

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From Matt Novak’sNobody Walks in L.A.“:

“In 1926 there was a big push to build over 50 miles of elevated railway in Los Angeles. The city’s low density made many skeptical that Los Angeles could ever support public transit solutions to its transportation woes in the 20th century. The local newspapers campaigned heavily against elevated railways downtown, even going so far as to send reporters to Chicago and Boston to get quotes critical of those cities’ elevated railways. L.A.’s low density was a direct result of the city’s most drastic growth occurring in the 1910s and ‘20s when automobiles were allowing people to spread out and build homes in far flung suburbs and not be tied to public transit to reach the commercial and retail hub of downtown.

As strange as it may seem today, the automobile was seen by many as the progressive solution to the transportation problems of Los Angeles in the 1920s. The privately owned rail companies were inflating their costs and making it impossible for the city to buy them out. Angelenos were reluctant to to subsidize private rail, despite their gripes with service. Meanwhile, both the city and the state continued to invest heavily in freeways. In 1936 Fortune magazine reported on what they called rail’s obsolescence.

Though the city’s growth stalled somewhat during the Great Depression it picked right back up again during World War II. People were again moving to the city in droves looking for work in this artificial port town that was fueling the war effort on the west coast. But at the end of the war the prospects for mass transit in L.A. were looking as grim as ever.”

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From Randy Rieland’s “How Big Data Will Mean the End of Job Interviews“:

“Consider the findings of Evolv, a San Francisco company that’s making a name for itself through its data-driven insights. It contends, for instance, that people who fill out online job applications using a browser that they installed themselves on their PCs, such as Chrome or Firefox, perform their jobs better and change jobs less often. You might speculate that this is because the kind of person who downloads a browser other than the one that came with his or her computer, is more proactive, more resourceful.

But Evolv doesn’t speculate. It simply points out that this is what data from more than 30,000 employees strongly suggests. There’s nothing anecdotal about it; it’s based on info gleaned from ten of thousands of workers. And that’s what gives it weight.

‘The heart of science is measurement,’ Erik Brynjolfsson, of the Sloan School of Management at M.I.T., pointed out in a recent New York Times article on what’s become known as work-force science. ‘We’re seeing a revolution in measurement, and it will revolutionize organizational economics and personnel economics.'”

 

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David Scott Milton, a writer who taught composition to inmates at maximum-security prisons for more than a dozen years, just did an Ask Me Anything on Reddit. A few exchanges follow.

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Question:

So are all people redeemable, or are there truly some that have no conscience, and no empathy? 

Answer: 

One of the astonishing things that I discovered in working in the prison- I had no idea of this from the outside- on the maximum yard, 5 to 10% of the inmates are unredeemable. They should probably be locked away and never thought of again. 5 to 10% (in my opinion) are likely innocent and wholly redeemable. The other 80% run the gamut from mostly redeemable to barely redeemable.

The tragedy is that they’re all lumped together.

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Question:

What is it you think separates the irredeemable 10% from the rest? 

Answer: 

I think the irredeemable 10% were just broken beyond repair. Either they were born sociopaths or life ground them down so hard and so fast that there wasn’t enough human emotion remaining to work with. Though I’d say legitimate, diagnosable sociopaths were rare, there was definitely that 5 to 10% that was so without empathy that they might as well have been.

Most of the prisoners I met who were like that had had unspeakable things happen to them in childhood, so in a sense they were victims, but I couldn’t pity them. I should add that not many of these ended up in my class. Once they were in prison many of them either became very apathetic or focused more on manipulating the hierarchy inside the prison for their own ends, and I wasn’t useful in either case.

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Question:

What is your craziest/wildest experience teaching at the prison?

Answer:

There were half a dozen times over 13 years where I thought I was in serious danger. These were one-on-one confrontations where, if the prisoner had felt like killing me, I’d have been dead… And I thought he might feel like killing me.

The craziest was when a female guard was walked off the yard after she was caught en flagrante delicto with an inmate. They escorted her off the yard, and it turned out her husband worked there too. He was a tower guard with a loudspeaker, and he was screaming insults at her as they walked her off. Also, as a tower guard, he had a gun, but luckily he never fired at her. All the inmates were forced to lie flat on the ground, but they found the whole thing very entertaining, hooting and hollering. It was a madhouse.

Question:

I can’t believe she would be so stupid while her husband was working there!

Answer:

Especially considering he was armed!

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Question:

How has working in the prison affected you? Both you personally and your views on prisoners/prisons.

Answer:

When I first started, I was very interested in my students and their stories, interested in the whole world they inhabited. But as time went on it really wore on me, reading about their murders, hearing about their abuse (many of them had been abused horribly as children by monsters before becoming monsters themselves)… It’s a coldness that seeps into your soul, and eventually it becomes almost too much to handle. I think it’s similar (though not nearly as intense) as what social workers experience, just being exposed to the full spectrum of human cruelty.

As far as my views on prisoners and prisons, the main thing that was affected was my judgmental nature. Before I went in, I saw crime as black and white. I was a proponent of the death penalty. And I believed there was something fundamentally different between me and someone who could commit murder. Teaching in the prisons taught me that there is very little separating any of us from a criminal. I had very few students who I believe were sociopaths, completely irredeemable. Most of the students I worked with were just kids who never had a chance and grew up to be something horrible. And many of the students I worked with were normal people who made one horrible mistake while high, or in a fit of rage or jealousy.

I also no longer believe in the death penalty, because there were a few students I had who I genuinely believe were innocent.

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The opening of the most depressing thing I’ve read so far today, Eddie Earnest’s well-written Venture Beat essay about the possibility of humans being assigned a “character score” online, because American culture hasn’t yet been reduced enough to high-school level by Facebook, comic-book movies and reality television:

As the globe shrinks and our social worlds expand, the need for more transparency in both our on and offline dealings is increasing. In a virtual world, we may need a universal character score.

Before the Young’s Modulus measurement of elasticity, engineers had to guess when a material would fail. A chancy proposition in the context of bridge-building, yet a risk we still take when it comes to assessing the fortitude of a person’s character. When daily business was conducted face-to-face, judging character was a fairly straightforward, albeit highly subjective, process. Now, in a digitally connected world, assessing character can be a stubbornly elusive task.

The potential for a universal character score is huge. A standardized measure could help us decide everything from who to partner with on a business venture to whose yard sale we should attend — and everything in between. Measuring and quantifying personal character has long been considered an impossibility, yet we may find it helps us in both our social and professional digital interactions.”

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This Mars One promotional video is very impressive and all, but big picture: You’re still going to die on Mars.

FromRemote Control,” Steve Coll’s provocative New Yorker book-review piece about warfare that seems less awful, that resembles a video game, that still kills:

“During the nineteen-seventies, it seemed as though this era of covert action were coming to an end. After a congressional investigation exposed the extent of C.I.A. plots, President Gerald Ford issued an executive order banning political assassinations. Successive Presidents strengthened the ban with executive orders of their own, codifying a growing bipartisan consensus that assassinations undercut America’s avowed commitment to democracy, human rights, and the rule of law.

But after September 11, 2001, as lower Manhattan and the Pentagon smoldered, C.I.A. leaders advocated for the right to kill members of Al Qaeda anywhere in the world. George W. Bush eagerly assented. On September 17th, the President signed a still classified directive delegating lethal authority to the agency. ‘The gloves come off,’ J. Cofer Black, the director of the agency’s Counterterrorist Center, told Congress early in 2002.

Since then, America’s targeted-killing program has grown into a campaign without borders, in which the White House, the C.I.A., and the Pentagon all play a part. The role of armed drones in this war is well known, but for years neither President Obama nor his advisers officially acknowledged their existence. Some three thousand people, including an unknown number of civilians, are believed to have died in targeted strikes since 2001. If the death tolls from strikes in Iraq and Afghanistan were included, the figure would be much higher.

An assassination campaign against suspected terrorists is not the same as one that occasionally rubs out unfriendly political leaders of nation-states, but it raises similar questions. Is a program of targeted killing, conducted without judicial oversight or public scrutiny, consistent with American interests and values?”

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From Jason Dorrier at Singularity Hub, a hopeful take on the seemingly scary side of the rise of the machines:

“Before the 20th century, most folks in the West farmed. Now, thanks to massive productivity gains in agriculture, virtually none do. To a 19th century farmer that would imply nothing less than the collapse of the economy. Why? Because the thing most people did back then was farm. Our farmer might understandably wonder, ‘What will we do when machines perform our jobs for us? How will we make money? How will we survive?’

We are gifted with the vision of our times and cursed with the temptation to extrapolate that vision into the future. How could our farmer know that in 2013 humans would be paid to make movies, pick up garbage, write online, build robots, clean bathrooms, engineer rockets, lead guided tours, drive trucks, play in garage bands, brew artisanal beer, or write code?

The revolution in agricultural technology liberated vast resources and made us all richer and the economy more diverse as a result. And while one might think that those riches should have accrued to only those making agricultural tech, thus permanently widening the income gap, no such thing happened in practice. While those making agricultural machinery undoubtedly made some bucks, the next economic waves provided different work and income for many levels of skill and motivation.

This is understandably a firebrand topic right now. If current unemployment marked the beginning of mass technological unemployment, you can be sure mass social unrest would be quick to follow. But we can’t prove it’s structural yet. Unemployment is a typically lagging indicator.”

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Numbers don’t kill all the narratives, just the fictional ones. But the numbers have to be done correctly or they create their own fictions.

During the 1950s, advertising legend David Ogilvy was doing market research for movie studios, figuring out which stars were worth big bucks and which were overpaid. It was a matter of surveying the public with carefully crafted questions. Today Nick Meaney does something similar, relying instead on computers that crunch numbers. From “Slaves to the Algorithm,” Tom Whipple’s Intelligent Life article about the new math, a passage about Meaney’s world:

“The headquarters of Epagogix, [Nick] Meaney’s company, do not look like the sort of headquarters from which one would confidently launch an attack on Hollywood royalty. A few attic rooms in a shared south London office, they don’t even look as if they would trouble Dollywood. But my meeting with Meaney will be cut short because of another he has, with two film executives. And at the end, he will ask me not to print the full names of his analysts, or his full address. He is worried that they could be poached.

Worse though, far worse, would be if someone in Hollywood filched his computer. It is here that the iconoclasm happens. When Meaney is given a job by a studio, the first thing he does is quantify thousands of factors, drawn from the script. Are there clear bad guys? How much empathy is there with the protagonist? Is there a sidekick? The complex interplay of these factors is then compared by the computer to their interplay in previous films, with known box-office takings. The last calculation is what it expects the film to make. In 83% of cases, this guess turns out to be within $10m of the total. Meaney, to all intents and purposes, has an algorithm that judges the value—or at least the earning power—of art.

To explain how, he shows me a two-dimensional representation: a grid in which each column is an input, each row a film. ‘Curiously,’ Meaney says, ‘if we block this column…’ With one hand, he obliterates the input labelled ‘star,’ casually rendering everyone from Clooney to Cruise, Damon to De Niro, an irrelevancy. ‘ In almost every case, it makes no difference to the money column.’

‘For me that’s interesting. The first time I saw that I said to the mathematician, ‘You’ve got to change your program—this is wrong.’ He said, ‘I couldn’t care less—it’s the numbers.’’ There are four exceptions to his rules. If you hire Will Smith, Brad Pitt or Johnny Depp, you seem to make a return. The fourth? As far as Epagogix can tell, there is an actress, one of the biggest names in the business, who is actually a negative influence on a film. ‘It’s very sad for her,’ he says. But hers is a name he cannot reveal.”

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The idea that energy independence would allow America to shelter itself from entanglements abroad never seemed like more than an election-year promise when gas prices had spiked. It was more a thing about pride than practicality. In the future, perhaps it won’t be who controls the oil but maybe who has the water or the grain or the technology or whatever. And even if we have everything we need on the domestic front, we still won’t be isolationists. From Benjamin Alter and Edward Fishman in the New York Times:

“JUST as the world was writing off America as a declining power, the country now finds itself on the cusp of realizing one of its longstanding goals: energy independence.

A wave of new technologies has made it possible to extract oil and gas from shale rock formations, and the results have been astonishing. By some estimates, the United States is on track to overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer as early as 2017, start exporting more oil and gas than it imports by 2025, and achieve full energy self-sufficiency by 2030.

American politicians in both parties have long dreamed of energy independence — not only for its potential economic benefits, but also because it could free the United States from the vicissitudes of the outside world.

Last March, President Obama said that new energy sources and technologies would make America ‘less dependent on what’s going on in the Middle East.’ The Romney campaign, meanwhile, argued that energy independence would mean that ‘the nation’s security is no longer beholden to unstable but oil-rich regions halfway around the world.’

But that is a fantasy. While the latest energy revolution will be a boon to America’s economy, it will in no way allow the United States to turn its back on the rest of the world.

That’s because America’s oil and gas bonanza will drive down global energy prices, undercutting the foundations of petrostates everywhere.”

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I’ve stayed in some dumpy hotels in my day, but most of them didn’t have shivs or shanks. Lawyers, inmates and their relatives apparently now review prisons on Yelp. From Caitlin Dewey in the Washington Post:

“Lawyer Robert Miller has visited five prisons and 17 jails in his lifetime, but he has reviewed only three of them on Yelp. One he found ‘average,’ with inexperienced and power-hungry officers. Another he faulted for its ‘kind of very firmly rude staff.’ His most recent review, a January critique of Theo Lacy jail in Orange County, Calif., lauds the cleanliness, urban setting and ‘very nice’ deputies.

Miller gave it five out of five stars.

‘I started reviewing because I needed something to kill time while I waited to see clients,’ said Miller, who has worked as a private defense lawyer in Southern California for 18 years. ‘But I think the reviews are actually helpful for bail bondsmen, attorneys, family members — a lot of people, actually.’

As Miller acknowledges, it’s not the kind of helpful testimonial commonly found on Yelp, the popular consumer reviews site many people turn to for recommendations on, say, bowling alleys and Chinese takeout. But as Yelp grows more popular — logging 36 million reviews as of last quarter — lawyers as well as prison inmates and their family members have turned to the site to report mediocre food and allegations of serious abuse. They join the enterprising reviewers who have used Yelp to critique traffic signals and public bathrooms.”

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If I had to choose between living forever and not living forever, I would opt to live forever, because that’s the less-permanent option. I mean, you can always change your mind.

FromImminent Immortality: Do You Really Want to Live Forever?Joseph Guyer’s thoughtful Future Culturalist blog post about ever and ever:

“But the question remains — is not dying desirable?

If most of us one day have the opportunity to extend our lives indefinitely, how will that change the dynamics of society and culture? A typical person living to 80 years of age goes through several dramatic changes in his lifetime: his opinions and attitudes change, his interests, his friends, his career, sometimes even how he remembers the past. Imagine how much change would take place in a thousand years of life! You wouldn’t be a shadow of the person you once were. Some workers put in 30 or 40 years’ worth of service at a single company or organization, or work in a single industry for as many years, but how dull it would be to continue beyond that. We celebrate when couples reach fifty years of marriage, but could any of them reach 100 years? Two hundred? A thousand? A little over half of marriages end in divorce already. Would couples, knowing that they are going to live for hundreds of years, wed with the firm understanding that they will eventually split? How would immortality affect patriotism?”

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As much as I think smartphones are great tools, I would rather have running water. Water that runs makes me happy and less thirsty and less likely to die in the short run. And if the running water is clean and doesn’t contain fecal matter, and I won’t get cholera, wow, cool. Let’s bottle it and call it iWater. Though, sure, a smartphone would be nice, too. 

From Marc Andreessen’s responses to a word-association segment of an interview conducted by Ruchi Sanghvi at the she++ conference, as reported by Billy Gallagher at TechCrunch:

“Mobile: under-hyped

Social: extremely powerful, and people underestimate how powerful it is

Enterprise: being reinvented

Silicon Valley: the world would be much better if we had 50 more Silicon Valleys but we don’t and we probably won’t for a long time

Genomics: largely a disappointment

Big Data: lots of social, cultural, political implications, not yet figured out

Aaron Swartz: tragedy. Absolute tragedy. Hopefully a future inspiration

2020: more people on the planet with smartphones than running water”

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There’s a small but lucrative industry made up of people who argue that technology is bad for us and we should stop it, as if these assertions and suggestions are useful. A much more sensible approach from Tom Foremski at ZDNet:

“We have at our disposal immense, irrepressible technologies of mass abundance, yet we constantly seek to muzzle them, to create sustainable economies that are only sustainable within the GDP metrics that made sense in the past.

It doesn’t add up, it doesn’t make sense, and it’s because we don’t have the language and the concepts to even begin to know how to talk about living in a world that celebrates the end of work, the fruits of thousands of years of progress.

Yet we insist that 7 billion people work, or else they are failures, failed societies, failed countries, failed economies. The Internet is helping to create a lot failed economies, it’s what it does best.

Our technologies overall, replace more jobs than they create, that’s why they are successful. Don’t look to Silicon Valley to create tens of milions of jobs, unless they are replacing hundreds of millions of jobs elsewhere. That’s what Washington DC and all other governments don’t understand about innovation.

We need a new way of understanding the future and coming to terms with it on its terms — and not those from our past way of thinking. That’s going to be hugely difficult but we need to start now. 

Predicting the future is easy, figuring out how we live in it is much harder.”

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“A surreal, moving garden of repurposed photographic equipment.” (Image by Adam E. Moreira.)

Rust never sleeps, so it takes diligence to stave off decay–a decay that would set in rapidly if we were to ever disappear. In a dense city, the infrastructure is particularly fraught. One way New York monitors its mass transportation is with a Geometry Car. From Bldg Blog:

“it’s hard not to be captivated by the idea of some blindingly well-lit behemoth vehicle maneuvering around beneath the city at night, all lasers, mirrors, lenses, and prisms—a surreal, moving garden of repurposed photographic equipment and motion-capture technologies from different historical eras—scanning the geometry of the metropolis from below, down to thermal flaws in the very metal it passes over. Surrounded by overlapping holographs of infinite lines and tunnels, like the subway dreaming of itself, this collage of physical instruments circles around and around through the foundation of the world, a two-track mind, a mobile neurology thinking in well-measured bursts of strobe light.”

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