“The Explanation Of The Puzzle Was Not That Lady Luck Actually Does Smile On Winners And Frown On Losers”

In gambling, it’s not so much that a hand can be hot but that initial wins can influence future wins. An explanation from the Economist:

“Using the power of the internet to round up a huge sample, the two researchers examined 565,915 bets made by 776 people on sports such as horse-racing and football. Because these were online bets their timing could be established precisely. Ms Xu and Dr Harvey looked at winning and losing streaks up to six bets long.

The probability of a first bet winning was 48% and that of a follow-up winning again was 49%. After that, the streak took off. The third bet won 57% of the time. The fourth, if the third had won, won 67% of the time, the fifth, 72% of it and the sixth 75%. As for the losers, after ploughing their first bets, their success with their second slipped to 47% and thence held at 45%.

The explanation of the puzzle, Ms [Juemin] Xu and Dr [Nigel] Harvey found, was not that Lady Luck actually does smile on winners and frown on losers. Rather, as winners’ winning streaks increased in length they started choosing safer and safer odds, which led them to win more often, though less profitably. In contrast, those who had experienced a losing streak went for ever riskier bets, making it more likely the streak would continue.”

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