You go to war with the whole world and you lose. Just ask Germany.

The hit-and-run thuggery of ISIS differed from Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations in one important way: It actually put stakes in the ground, conquering cities and laying claim to land. It sought permanence in a material way, aspiring to become a state.

It didn’t work out. Once other nations processed what was happening and started pushing back, ISIS began what will likely be a permanent retreat. Having grown more desperate, the terrorist organization began striking abroad, offering a few wild haymakers before the end of a losing fight.

When ISIS as a fledgling nation is permanently disabled, will the land it ruled, if briefly, in Iraq and Syria become a breeding ground for new terror groups and sectarian violence? Given the recent and distant history of the region, what’s past may be prologue. In a well-written Wall Street Journal “Saturday Essay,” Yaroslav Trofimov believes trouble won’t end when ISIS is extinguished, with factions that fought together against it perhaps turning on one another. An excerpt:

It is easy to think that Islamic State is still on the march. It isn’t. Over the past year, the territory under its control—once roughly the size of the U.K.—has shrunk rapidly in both Iraq and Syria. Islamic State has lost the Iraqi cities of Ramadi and Fallujah, the ancient Syrian city of Palmyra and the northern Syrian countryside bordering on Turkey. Its militants in Libya were ousted in recent weeks from their headquarters in Sirte. In coming months, the group will face a battle that it is unlikely to win for its two most important remaining centers—Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria.

It may be tempting fate to ask the question, but it must be asked all the same: What happens once Islamic State falls? The future of the Middle East may well depend on who fills the void that it leaves behind both on the ground and, perhaps more important, in the imagination of jihadists around the world.

As we mark the 15th anniversary this weekend of the terrorist attacks of 9/11, one likely consequence of the demise of ISIS (as Islamic State in Iraq and Syria is often known) will be to revive its ideological rival, al Qaeda, which opposed Mr. Baghdadi’s ambitions from the start. Al Qaeda may yet unleash a fresh wave of terrorist attacks in the West and elsewhere—as may the remnants of Islamic State, eager to show that they still matter.

“Simply having ISIS go away doesn’t mean that the jihadist problem goes away,” said Daniel Benjamin of Dartmouth College, who served as the State Department’s counterterrorism coordinator during the Obama administration. “Eliminating the caliphate will be an achievement—but more likely, it will be just the end of the beginning rather than the beginning of the end.”•

Yaroslav Trofimov, who covers the Greater Middle East Region for the Wall Street Journal, just did an Ask Me Anything at Reddit. He staunchly opposes American ground troops being deployed to eradicate the Islamic State, feeling that such a mission would legitimize the terrorists. A few exchanges follow.

______________________________

Question:

If you had to choose, would you call ISIS a terrorist organization, an apocalypse cult, or something closer to an nascent transnational actor, like a fledgeling state fighting for independence?

Yaroslav Trofimov:

I think it is all of the above — but the most important attribute of IS is that it is, in fact, a state that controls and governs territory (to which it urges Muslims worldwide to immigrate.)

____________________________

Question:

What is the average day in the life of a member of ISIS? What would Jihad John do while not making videos; what would top ranking officials do compared to the lowest level of fighters?

Yaroslav Trofimov:

Let’s not forget that IS is not just your average terror organization — they do, in fact, run a state with the land mass of Great Britain. Which means there IS sewage inspectors, IS tax collectors, IS religious police members, IS officials in charge of road maintenance… The foreigners from the West are often employed in the communications/ propaganda departments, but also in finance, health etc.

______________________________

Question:

What is the end goal of the Islamic State?

Yaroslav Trofimov:

They are very clear about it — world conquest and then the end of days. They have a very apocalyptic vision that relies on prophecies mentioned in the Quran and the Sunna. That is their biggest difference with al Qaeda, which had more pragmatic real-world goals, such as evicting the U.S. and Israel from the region.

______________________________

Question:

Difficult to predict, but do you feel a particular country is next up to have a larger following of pro-ISIS people? (Egypt, etc.)

Yaroslav Trofimov:

Egypt does have an IS branch, the Province of Sinai, that is waging a deadly campaign against the Egyptian army in the Sinai peninsula. So far, its activities are largely limited there.

But IS is aiming to spread across the Muslim world — and does have sizable franchises in Libya, Pakistan, Yemen, Algeria etc. There has recently been an alarming influx of recruits from ex-Soviet Central Asia, especially Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

______________________________

Question:

If the Israelis stopped being Jewish, and gave up Judaism. And the Arabs stopped being Muslim, and gave up Islam. Do you think they could get along?

Yaroslav Trofimov:

Jews and Muslims (Arab and non-Arab) lived in peace in the Middle East for centuries even as anti-Semitic killings raged in Europe. Even as late as the 1930s, Egypt and Iraq had Jewish cabinet ministers. The hostility seen now is very very recent, not the intrinsic result of Islam or Judaism.

Question:

Correct but in the 1930’s, and prior. There really wasn’t a “formal” Israel at the time. Now that there is, countries like Iran don’t like the idea of a “jewish state” neighboring them, and do not recognize it.

Yaroslav Trofimov:

True — though Iran actually still has a sizable Jewish community. What I was trying to say is there is nothing intrinsic in Judaism or Islam that caused the current hostility in the region. It is all about politics, not about religion.•