If autonomous vehicles are perfected and cities continue growing more populous, two possibilities which presently seem like inevitabilities, then driverless taxis becoming a major form of transport–perhaps the major one–in urban areas would not be a surprise. In Joanna Roberts’ Horizon piece, some EU urban planners and transportation experts predict such a transition will begin in earnest in five to ten years, which sounds ambitious. An excerpt:

People in cities will shift from using private transport to using self-driving public taxis, as fleets of shared, low-speed electric cars are introduced over the next decade, according to European researchers working on the future of automated transport.

By contrast, travel in rural areas and for long journeys will continue to rely on private cars, although these will become more and more automated to increase safety and comfort.

Dr Michel Parent, an advanced road transport expert at INRIA, the French Institute for Research in Computer Science and Automation, has been working on various EU-funded projects since the 90s to develop self-driving cars that would operate in city centres. He says that fleets of on-demand driverless vehicles that pick people up from their homes and connect them with mass public transport networks could be operational within a decade.

‘I would say that in some cities we will see it in five to 10 years as a major transportation, at least the shift from private mobility to public mobility,’ he said. ‘The technology is available; we have demonstrated the feasibility and the safety of these systems. Now it’s up to the cities and up to European legislation to come up with rules to deploy these systems.’ …

While ridding cities of private cars might take some getting used to, Dr Parent believes it will catch on. ‘People are very smart. If it is more convenient and cheaper they will not hesitate one instant. I can see a future where there are almost no private cars in cities.’•