It’s hard to argue with math, but John B. Judis of the New Republic pushes back at Nate Silver’s idea that the GOP House is safe for the foreseeable future despite the government shutdown. An excerpt:

“One could argue, of course, that the Republican Party will readapt to its rightwing base and eventually create a new majority of’ ‘true fiscal conservatives’ who will disdain compromise. But there is reason to believe that Chocola and the Club for Growth will never achieve their objective. Rightwing populism, like its predecessor, Christian conservatism, is intense in its commitment, but ultimately limited in its appeal. Tea Party Republicans and the outsider groups probably had their greatest impact when they were still emerging phenomena in the 2010 elections. But when the Republican Party becomes identified with the radical right, it will begin to lose ground even in districts that Republicans and polling experts now regard as safe. That happened earlier with the Christian Coalition, which enjoyed immense influence within the Republican Party until the Republican Party began to be identified with it.”