If the overall American economy continues to brighten over the next two years, particularly employment and wage growth, a couple of very different potential candidates for the Presidency almost surely have no chance: Mitt Romney and Elizabeth Warren. The former’s greatest claim, valid or not, is that he’s a money man who can turn things around; the latter is seen as a populist who can dismantle and reorganize a failed system. Should another recession occur, however, particularly a second Great Recession, protest candidates of all sorts are back on the table.

In “FT Predictions: The World in 2015,” Edward Luce answers the most obvious question about the next U.S. national election:

“Will a serious rival emerge to Hillary Clinton in 2015?

No. We will not know the name of the Republican nominee until 2016. Even then, he — there are no female hopefuls among the 20 or so names doing the rounds — will be so bruised that Mrs Clinton will begin the general election with a head start.

In the Democratic field, she will be challenged by one or two second-tier candidates, such as James Webb, the former Virginia senator, and Martin O’Malley, the outgoing governor of Maryland. But Mrs Clinton will keep her grip on the primaries. Her only real threat, Elizabeth Warren, the populist senator from Massachusetts, will decline to run in spite of strong urging from the liberal left. When it comes to it, Ms Warren will not want to stand in the path of the election of America’s first female president.”