Before departing for a trip to China, President Obama sent more troops to Iraq, and Russia reportedly dispatched additional soldiers to Crimea. Of these three regions, China is almost definitely the biggest challenge to U.S. in the long term, if more economically than militaristically presently. In a Financial Times column, Gideon Rachman argues that Russia, not the Middle East, is the greater short-term threat, which is not the conventional wisdom. An excerpt:

“The darkest scenarios, being discussed behind closed doors, include Russian escalation up to and including the use of tactical nuclear weapons. If that were to happen it would, of course, be the biggest international security crisis in decades – far more significant and dangerous than another round in the 25 years of fighting in Iraq.

Most experts still dismiss the nuclear scenarios as far-fetched. It is more common to worry that Mr Putin may launch an all-out conventional war in Ukraine – or encourage uprisings by Russian-speakers in the Baltic states, which are members of Nato. If Russia then intervened in the Baltic states and Nato did not respond, the Kremlin would have achieved the huge prize of demonstrating that the western military alliance is a paper tiger.

Some hope that the growing pressure on the Russian economy and the rouble might dissuade the Kremlin from escalation. But an economic crisis could also make Russian behaviour more unpredictable and reckless.

Amid all this angst, President Obama has set off for a summit in China. For believers in America’s ‘pivot to Asia’ it remains true that – over the longer term – the biggest challenge to US power is still a rising China, rather than a declining Russia or a disintegrating Middle East.”