Clay Davenport

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It was reported Sunday night that Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu has escaped from his homeland. Why will this be big news in baseball? An explanation from “The Best Hitter You’ve Never Heard Of,” a Grantland article from 18 months ago by the excellent Jonah Keri:

“It’s in the past two and a half seasons that Abreu’s become a bona fide superstar. In 2009-10, he hit .399/.555/.822, good for a .396 EqA. Through 54 games this year, he’s crushing Serie Nacional pitching to the tune of .371/.526/.724, leading the league in OBP and ranking second in slugging.

But last season’s numbers were the ones that broke the scale. [Baseball Prospectus co-founder Clay] Davenport runs translations for Serie Nacional players, just as he does for Japanese league players, minor leaguers, and others not in the majors. He considers the competition in Serie Nacional to be equivalent to high-A ball in North America’s minor leagues — the Carolina, California, and Florida leagues. After comparing a player’s performance to the rest of his league, Davenport then must establish how players from that league did when they graduated to higher levels. Once he has a good idea of how players typically change between leagues, he translates an average major league player to Serie Nacional. The Cuban player’s translation thus comes from looking at how far above or below the average major leaguer he would be.

Miguel Cabrera was the best hitter in Major League Baseball in 2011. Jose Abreu, even after adjusting his numbers to reflect A-ball competition, blew Cabrera out of the water.

‘I don’t know that I’d name him the ‘best hitter in the world’ based on a 60-game performance,’ said Davenport. “But yes, I’d say there’s a chance.'”

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