Urban Studies

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The moon landing was supposed to be the beginning of the Space Age, but the giant leap turned out to be a small step. A mission to Mars, let alone a full-fledged settlement in space, was shelved. But billionaire entrepreneurs weaned on sci-fi are taking aim again at the stratosphere. The opening of Jessa Gamble’s Guardian article “How Do You Build a City in Space?“:

“Science fiction has delivered on many of its promises. Star Trek videophones have become Skype, the Jetsons’ food-on-demand is materialising through 3-D printing, and we have done Jules Verne one better and explored mid-ocean trenches at crushing depths. But the central promise of golden age sci-fi has not yet been kept. Humans have not colonised space.

For a brief moment in the 1970s, the grandeur of the night sky felt interactive. It seemed only decades away that more humans would live off the Earth than on it; in fact, the Space Shuttle was so named because it was intended to make 50 round trips per year. There were active plans for expanding civilisation into space, and any number of serious designs for building entire cities on the moon, Mars and beyond.

The space age proved to be a false dawn, of course. After a sobering interlude, children who had sat rapt at the sight of the moon landings grew up, and accepted that terraforming space – once briefly assumed to be easy – was actually really, really hard. Intense cold war motivation flagged, and the Challenger and Columbia disasters taught us humility. Nasa budgets sagged from 5% of the US federal budget to less than 0.5%. People even began to doubt that we’d ever set foot on the moon: in a 2006 poll, more than one in four Americans between 18 and 25 said they suspected the moon landing was a hoax.

But now a countercurrent has surfaced. The children of Apollo, educated and entrepreneurial, are making real headway on some of the biggest difficulties. Large-scale settlement, as opposed to drab old scientific exploration, is back on the menu.”

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From Dana Hull at the San Jose Mercury News, more information about Elon Musk’s Gigafactory, which he believes can cut battery costs by 30%, a key to making Teslas more affordable:

“The planned $5 billion gigafactory is key to Tesla’s strategy of manufacturing a more affordable, mass-market electric car. Tesla has not finalized a location but is looking at several states, including Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and Texas. California is also being considered but is regarded as a long shot because of the lengthy time required for the permitting process.

In an onstage interview with venture capitalist Ira Ehrenpreis, an early investor in Tesla who sits on its board of directors, Musk said that vertically integrating the battery production makes economic sense.

‘The gigafactory will take that to another level,’ he said. ‘You’ll have stuff coming directly from the mine, getting on a rail car and getting delivered to the factory, with finished battery packs coming out the other side. The cost-compression potential is quite high if you are willing to go all the way down the supply chain.’

But the gigafactory will not just supply batteries for Tesla’s electric cars: Stationary battery packs will be provided to SolarCity, the San Mateo solar-installation company run by Musk’s cousins, and other renewable energy companies in the solar and wind industries.”

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In this 1977 Canadian talk show, Fran Lebowitz, selling her book Metropolitan Life, plays on a familiar theme: Her complicated relationship with children. She was concerned that digital watches and calculators and other new technologies entitled kids (and adults also) to a sense of power they should not have. She must be pleased with smartphones today.

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Ways to get rich quick!!

I have been using this accountant tax trick for a long time and my company needs more people so we can make money and you can get money too. For more info about this text or call me.

From the August 7, 1911 Brooklyn Daily Eagle:

Chicago--Mrs. Jessie Stewart Gardner is dead at her home because she refused to take her wedding ring from her finger.

The gold band was placed on Mrs. Gardner’s finger on the day she became a bride. It remained there until it had to be filed off, but the filing was done too late.

Mrs. Gardner’s finger had increased gradually in size. The pressure of the ring became correspondingly greater. The ring finally became imbedded in the flesh and caused an interruption of the blood circulation.

With much reluctance, Mrs. Gardner consented to have the ring filed off. Owing to the delay, blood poisoning developed and resulted in her death. Mrs. Gardner was 60 years old.”

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In the new Aeon essay, “The Intimacy of Crowds,” Michael Bond argues that riotous mobs are often actually quite rational and goal-oriented, despite the seeming disorder of the melee. The opening:

“There’s nothing like a riot to bring out the amateur psychologist in all of us. Consider what happened in August 2011, after police killed Mark Duggan, a 29-year-old man from the London suburb of Tottenham. Thousands took to the streets of London and other English towns in the UK’s worst outbreak of civil unrest in a generation. When police finally restored order after some six days of violence and vandalism, everyone from the Prime Minister David Cameron to newspaper columnists of every political persuasion denounced the mindless madness, incredulous that a single killing, horrific as it was, could spark the conflagration at hand. The most popular theory was that rioters had surrendered their self-awareness and rationality to the mentality of the crowd.

This has been the overriding view of crowd behaviour since the French Revolution and the storming of the Bastille. The 19th-century French criminologist Gabriel Tarde likened even the most civilised of crowds to ‘a monstrous worm whose sensibility is diffuse and who still acts with disordered movements according to the dictates of its head’. Tarde’s contemporary, the social psychologist Gustave Le Bon, tried to explain crowd behaviour as a paralysis of the brain; hypnotised by the group, the individual becomes the slave of unconscious impulses. ‘He is no longer himself, but has become an automaton who has ceased to be guided by his will,’ he wrote in 1895. ‘Isolated, he may be a cultivated individual; in a crowd, he is a barbarian… a grain of sand amid other grains of sand, which the wind stirs up at will.’

This is still the prevailing view of mob behaviour, but it turns out to be wrong.”

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The subtext to workers’ righteous attempt to get McDonald’s to pay a living wage is, of course, that these are not starter jobs for kids anymore but careers. This disturbing new normal is unifying global workers in surprising ways–for now, at least. Even many of these low-paying service positions are in the crosshairs of automation. From Julia Carrie Wong at the Guardian:

“In 1996, Thomas Friedman put forward a grand theory of capitalism, economic development and foreign relations: ‘No two countries that both have a McDonald’s have ever fought a war against each other.’ (He was, by the way, totally wrong.)

The unifying power of McDonald’s took on a new meaning on Thursday, however, as thousands of fast-food workers across the globe began to walk off the job or hold protests against McDonald’s and other fast-food employers. The coordinated action is the latest escalation in the campaign that began in New York City in November 2012, when about 200 fast-food workers went on strike to demand hourly wages of $15 and the right to form a union.

The so-called ‘Fight for 15’ spread across the US, thanks to backing from the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) – and organizers expect strikes and protests in 150 US cities and at least 33 countries on Thursday.

With 1.8m employees in 118 countries, McDonald’s is certainly a grand unifier; only Walmart employs more private-sector workers worldwide. But instead of dishing out peace and prosperity the way Friedman and other proponents of neoliberalism promised, McDonald’s has been spreading low wages, abusive conditions and union-busting.”

Sylvia Anderson, legendary British TV producer and brilliant costume designer, explaining in 1970 why her moon suits, created for the program UFO, would be a suitable style for women of the future.

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"It is certainly a robot."

“It is certainly a military robot.”

We’ve longed looked for ways to automate killing, even in those days when computers were more often referred to as “electronic brains” or “mechanical minds.” An early attempt at push-button warfare–a “robot gun”–developed by the U.S. between world wars was the subject of an article in the October 5, 1928 Brooklyn Daily Eagle. An excerpt:

Aberdeen Proving Grounds, Md.–Greatest among the marvels of a mechanized army demonstrated here yesterday for the Army Ordnance Administration is a ‘mechanical mind’ produced in the Sperry plants in Brooklyn.

Following a day which was replete with spectacular demonstrations of new engines of war the ‘mechanical mind,’ which is technically known as a ‘data computer,’ located an ‘enemy’ airplane in the black night skies, spotted it almost instantly with the beam of powerful searchlight and kept a battery of four three-inch guns trained on the airplane and then with the press of a button the whole battery of anti-aircraft artillery opened fire and blew the trailing target to bits.

Not a Hand Touched It

Not a hand touched the searchlight which spotted the airplane and not a hand was touched to the three-inch guns in the anti-aircraft gun battery to sight them. The ‘mechanical mind’ did all this.

Ordnance experts declared this device the outstanding feature of the show. ‘It is certainly a military robot,’ said one of them.

The senses of this mechanical mind are embodied in a very sensitive syntonic oscillator, which had direction determining and vague finding powers. What this syntonic oscillator detects is greatly amplified after the manner of radio sets and its findings, which are expressed in electrical signals, are fed to a ‘comparator.’ This part of the apparatus is a mathematical marvel. It takes the reading given it for direction and distance from the oscillator without any effect on the correctness of the aim given.”

Nintendo, a 19th-century Japanese playing-card company that became an American video-game sensation nearly a hundred years after its founding, is one of the subjects of Blake J. Harris’ new book, Console Warswhich Grantland has excerpted. A piece about how in the 1980s Nintendo presciently identified the existence of a ravenous appetite of fans for not just a piece of pop culture but for a community built around it, a phenomenon that later exploded on the Internet:

“[Gail] Tilden was at home, nursing her six-week-old son, when [Minoru] Arakawa called and asked her to come into the office the next day for an important meeting. So the following day, after dropping off her son with some trusted coworkers, she went into a meeting with Arakawa. The appetite for Nintendo tips, hints, and supplemental information was insatiable, so Arakawa decided that a full-length magazine would be a better way to deliver exactly what his players wanted.

Tilden was put in charge of bringing this idea to life. She didn’t know much about creating, launching, and distributing a magazine, but, as with everything that had come before, she would figure it out. What she was unlikely to figure out, however, was how to become an inside-and-out expert on Nintendo’s games. She played, yes, but she couldn’t close her eyes and tell you which bush to burn in The Legend of Zelda or King Hippo’s fatal flaw in Mike Tyson’s Punch-Out!! For that kind of intel, there was no one better than Nintendo’s resident expert gamer, Howard Phillips, an always-smiling, freckle-faced videogame prodigy.

Technically, Phillips was NOA’s warehouse manager, but along the way he revealed a preternatural talent for playing, testing, and evaluating games. After earning Arakawa’s trust as a tastemaker, he would scour the arcade scene and write detailed assessments that would go to Japan. Sometimes his advice was implemented, sometimes it was ignored, but in the best-case scenarios he would find something hot, such as the 1982 hit Joust, alert Japan’s R&D to it, and watch it result in a similar Nintendo title — in this case a 1983 Joust-like game called Mario Bros. As Nintendo grew, Phillips’s ill-defined role continued to expand, though he continued to remain the warehouse manager. That all changed, however, when he was selected to be the lieutenant for Tilden’s new endeavor.

In July 1988, Nintendo of America shipped out the first issue of Nintendo Power to the 3.4 million members of the Nintendo Fun Club. Over 30 percent of the recipients immediately bought an annual subscription, marking the fastest that a magazine had ever reached one million paid subscribers.”

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Nintendo Arm Wrestling, 1985:

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You have to wonder what the brand new New York Times Magazine editor Jake Silverstein, who was poached from Texas Monthly, must think of Jill Abramson’s abrupt ouster. He was personally courted for the job by the erstwhile Executive Editor, and the two meshed on a vision for the future of the glossy publication at a time when some believe the periodical-within-a-periodical redundant with what the legendary paper has become in the paper-less age. He moved his family thousands of miles to work for the institution and not just Abramson, but it helps to have an ally at the top of the masthead as Hugo Lindgren, his predecessor, learned when he was removed by Abramson after being tapped by Bill Keller. Because of his high level of talent and because the company’s new lead editor, Dean Baquet, was involved in his hiring, Silverstein will likely be fine, but it goes to show you how crazy the business has become, even at the top, in this worried age of technological disruption. If we were living in an era when newspapers were flush and the Times was profitable, it’s hard to imagine this change would have been made. But all bets are off now. The pressure is immense and the patience short. Even formerly plum jobs are pretty much the pits today, just like the rest of them. 

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From Ken Auletta at the New Yorker blog:

“As with any such upheaval, there’s a history behind it. Several weeks ago, I’m told, Abramson discovered that her pay and her pension benefits as both executive editor and, before that, as managing editor were considerably less than the pay and pension benefits of Bill Keller, the male editor whom she replaced in both jobs. ‘She confronted the top brass,’ one close associate said, and this may have fed into the management’s narrative that she was ‘pushy,’ a characterization that, for many, has an inescapably gendered aspect. [Arthur] Sulzberger is known to believe that the Times, as a financially beleaguered newspaper, needed to retreat on some of its generous pay and pension benefits; Abramson had also been at the Times for far fewer years than Keller, having spent much of her career at the Wall Street Journal, accounting for some of the pension disparity. (I was also told by another friend of hers that the pay gap with Keller has since been closed.) But, to women at an institution that was once sued by its female employees for discriminatory practices, the question brings up ugly memories. Whether Abramson was right or wrong, both sides were left unhappy. A third associate told me, ‘She found out that a former deputy managing editor’—a man—’made more money than she did’ while she was managing editor. ‘She had a lawyer make polite inquiries about the pay and pension disparities, which set them off.’

Sulzberger’s frustration with Abramson was growing. She had already clashed with the company’s C.E.O., Mark Thompson, over native advertising and the perceived intrusion of the business side into the newsroom. Publicly, Thompson and Abramson denied that there was any tension between them, as Sulzberger today declared that there was no church-state—that is, business-editorial—conflict at the Times. A politician who made such implausible claims might merit a front-page story in the Times. The two men and Abramson clearly did not get along.”

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From David Carr and Ravi Somaiya at the Times:

“The New York Times dismissed Jill Abramson as executive editor on Wednesday, replacing her with Dean Baquet, the managing editor, in an abrupt change of leadership.

Arthur O. Sulzberger Jr., the publisher of the paper and the chairman of The New York Times Company, told a stunned newsroom that had been quickly assembled that he had made the decision because of ‘an issue with management in the newsroom.’

Ms. Abramson, 60, had been in the job only since September 2011. But people in the company briefed on the situation described serious tension in her relationship with Mr. Sulzberger, who had been hearing concerns from employees that she was polarizing and mercurial. They had disagreements even before she was appointed executive editor, and she had also had clashes with Mr. Baquet.

In recent weeks, people briefed on the situation said, Mr. Baquet had become angered over a decision by Ms. Abramson to try to hire an editor from The Guardian, Janine Gibson, and install her alongside him a co-managing editor position without consulting him. It escalated the conflict between them and rose to the attention of Mr. Sulzberger.”

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“I’m healthy and lazy.”

anyone in need of liver or heart (anywhere)

Hello my name is mike. I’m healthy and lazy. I’m selling my body parts. no one has to know. it can be kept confidential but I need the cash to give to my desperate family. not a joke. we are all in a poor situation. I think its about time to give up not cause I want to cause I have to.

Viewtron, an early online service from AT&T and Knight-Ridder, opened its virtual doors in South Florida in 1983, offering email, banking, shopping, news, weather and updated airline schedules. Despite quickly reaching 15 U.S. markets, Viewtron folded in 1986, victim of being ahead of the wave before people had learned how to surf.

It’s not likely that legal issues regarding autonomous cars will be as much a hurdle as some think, but they will be somewhat of a story. In the New York Times article, “When Driverless Cars Break the Law,” Claire Cain Miller breaks down the potential future of civil and criminal culpability:

“In cases of parking or traffic tickets, the owner of the car would most likely be held responsible for paying the ticket, even if the car and not the owner broke the law.

In the case of a crash that injures or kills someone, many parties would be likely to sue one another, but ultimately the car’s manufacturer, like Google or BMW, would probably be held responsible, at least for civil penalties.

Product liability law, which holds manufacturers responsible for faulty products, tends to adapt well to new technologies, John Villasenor, a fellow at the Brookings Institution and a professor at U.C.L.A., wrote in a paper last month proposing guiding principles for driverless car legislation.

A manufacturer’s responsibility for problems discovered after a product is sold — like a faulty software update for a self-driving car — is less clear, Mr. Villasenor wrote. But there is legal precedent, particularly with cars, as anyone following the recent spate of recalls knows.

The cars could make reconstructing accidents and assigning blame in lawsuits more clear-cut because the car records video and other data about the drive, said Sebastian Thrun, an inventor of driverless cars.

‘I often joke that the big losers are going to be the trial lawyers,’ he said.

Insurance companies would also benefit from this data, and might even reward customers for using driverless cars, Mr. Villasenor wrote. Ryan Calo, who studies robotics law at the University of Washington School of Law, predicted a renaissance in no-fault car insurance, under which an insurer covers damages to its customer regardless of who is at fault.

Criminal penalties are a different story, for the simple reason that robots cannot be charged with a crime.”

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You sell what you have, and Detroit has urban decay, lots of it. It’s problematic that advertisers want to market it as something edgy and desirable and more troubling that brands that co-opt the Detroit brand will probably benefit more than the city itself, but I guess something is better than nothing. From Rose Hackman at the Guardian:

“Yet, to an advertiser’s eye, Detroit is cool. Gritty. Tough. Resilient. Authentic in its struggle. True in its American spirit of hard, honest work, ruins and all.

That’s where it gets uncomfortable for Detroit, The Brand. Detroit, the American phoenix rising from the economic ashes, is sitting on a valuable natural resource: street cred. This has not escaped the notice of profit-driven companies see the city’s rebirth as a chance to brand themselves and sell authenticity. 

The airwaves and billboards are plastered with ads from Chrysler (a Detroit native), Redbull (from Austria), new vodka brand from the giant French Pernod Ricard group, Our/Vodka, and luxury watch and bicycle company Shinola. They present a romantic, nostalgic take on grit – a highly effective spin, which presents poverty and urban decay as cool. The nostalgia element is all the more evident in that ads by Shinola, Redbull and Our/Vodka are often filmed in black and white.

Shinola’s spot features bike riders and a beautiful, blonde, white female model hugging a (presumably local) young, black girl. Redbull’s spot aired during this year’s Grammy Awards features local artist Tylonn Sawyer telling a compelling story of beauty and resilience. Our/Vodka’s launching ad includes Detroit’s beautiful, eerie, abandoned Michigan Central Station, stating the brand is rooted in ‘people’ and ‘community.’

These are brands that Detroiters, even the hip newcomers, likely can’t afford. It’s hard to imagine that many in Detroit could afford a $1,950 bicycle or a $900 watch, irrespective of whether or not the latter now comes with a lifetime warranty.”

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From the November 30, 1940 Brooklyn Daily Eagle:

Dunn, N.C.–A young woman, giving New York as her home address, strolled into police headquarters here yesterday and asked Chief G.A. Jackson:

‘What do you call anybody who’s been married twice without getting a divorce?’

‘A bigamist,’ replied Jackson.

‘Well, I’m one of them. And I want you to put me in jail,’ the woman said, poking marriage certificates at the startled chief to back up her claim. ‘I’m tired of both of them and jail is the best way out.’

But the harassed chief finally sent her away, deciding that Dunn didn’t want the expense of feeding her in jail.”

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Extrapolating on the Wisdom of Crowds theory, new research suggests that small crowds might be wiser than large ones. Perhaps. But what if it’s a tight-knit community of morons? Would the thinking be good then? What if it’s a politicized group that makes decisions that have immediate benefits for its own members without regard to others or to long-term ramifications? What if we’re talking about a doomsday cult? From Drake Bennett at Businessweek:

“The wisdom of crowds is one of those perfectly of-our-moment ideas. The phrase comes from New Yorker writer James Surowiecki, whose book of that title was published almost a decade ago. Its thesis is nicely summed up in its opening, which describes the 19th-century English scientist Francis Galton’s realization, while attending a county fair, that in a competition to guess the weight of an ox the average of all of the guesses people had submitted (787 in all) was almost exactly right: 1,197 pounds vs. the actual weight of 1,198 pounds, a degree of accuracy that no individual could attain on his own. As individuals we may be ignorant and short-sighted, but together we’re wise.

The implication is that the bigger the crowd, the greater the accuracy. It’s like running an experiment: All else being equal, the larger the sample size, the more trustworthy the result. The idea has a particular resonance at a time when online businesses from Amazon.com to Yelp rely on aggregated user reviews, and social networks such as Facebook sell ads that rely in part on showing you how many of your friends ‘like’ something.

A new paper by the Princeton evolutionary biologist Iain Couzin and his student Albert Kao, however, suggests that bigger isn’t necessarily better. In fact, small crowds may actually be the smartest. ‘We do not find the classic view of the wisdom of crowds in most environments,’ says Couzin of their results. ‘Instead, what we find is that there’s a small optimal group size of eight to 12 individuals that tends to optimize decisions.’

The research started from the fact that, in nature—where, unlike at county fairs, accuracy has life-or-death consequences—many animals live in relatively small groups. Why, Couzin wondered, would so many species fail to take advantage of the informational benefits of the crowd?”

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From the latest Edge article, “The Thing Which Has No Name,” by Ogilvy & Mather UK creative director Rory Sutherland, who argues, perhaps unsurprisingly, that marketers and advertisers understand certain things better than classical economists:

“It is true of quite a lot of progress in human life that businesses, in their blundering way, sometimes discover things before academics do. This is true of the steam engine. People developed steam engines before anybody knew how they worked. It’s true of the jet engine, true of aspirin, and so forth. People discover through trial and error—what Nassim Taleb calls ‘stochastic tinkering.’ People make progress on their own without really understanding how it works. At that point, academics come along, explain how what works works and to some extent take the credit for it. ‘Teaching birds to fly’ is the phrase that Taleb uses. As I say, I was seduced by economic thinking and the elegance of it, but at the same time having worked in advertising for 15 years, I was also fairly conscious of the fact that this isn’t really how people behave. We’d always known, in those fields of marketing, like direct marketing, where you actually got results—you sent out letters to 50,000 people and saw how many people replied—there was something going on that we didn’t understand. In other words, occasionally you might do incredibly elaborate, complex, and expensive work and have more or less no effect on the uptake of some product. Then someone would redesign the application form and slightly change the order of the questions on the application form, and the number of people replying would double. We knew there was this mysterious kind of dark force at work in human behavior.

The extraordinary thing about the marketing industry is that, by accident, it was pretty good at stumbling on some of these biases which behavioral economics later codified. There’s a wonderful/evil advertisement I mentioned in a recent piece, ‘How else could a month’s salary last a lifetime?’, which is a De Beers advertisement in about 1953 for engagement rings. Now, that’s a brilliant case of framing or price anchoring. How much should you spend on an engagement ring? We’ll suggest that whatever your month’s salary is, that’s what you should spend.

‘No one ever got fired for buying IBM’ is a wonderful example of understanding loss aversion or ‘defensive decision making,’ The advertising and marketing industry kind of acted as if it knew this stuff—but where we were disgracefully bad is that no one really attempted to sit down and codify it. When I discovered Nudge by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, and the whole other corpus on Behavioral Economics…. when I started discovering there was a whole field of literature about ‘this thing for which we have no name’ …. these powerful forces which no one properly understood—that was incredibly exciting. And the effect of these changes can be an order of magnitude. This is the important thing. Really small interventions can have huge effects.”

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The original 1971 Walter Cronkite report about the D.B. Cooper hijacking, heist and escape. Interviews with many members of the shaken flight crew.

Douglas Coupland’s new Financial Times article concerns his relationship to television, a glowing box which has changed markedly during his life–and not just architecturally. Of particular interest is how the obsolescence of TV in the Internet Age has led to the medium’s creative apex. The opening:

“On April 19 1995, I bought my first genuine adult TV set – a 27in Sony Trinitron. I know it was this date because two delivery men brought it to the house at about 11 in the morning. We installed the TV into a nook in the bookshelves, turned it on, and on screen came images of the Oklahoma City bombing. For the three of us it was an ‘I remember where I was’ moment. We stopped for an hour and watched the news. I made coffee, we talked a bit and then the day progressed.

I used to watch TV back then. By that I mean I’d go into the living room and turn on the TV set, saying, ‘Gosh. I wonder what’s on TV right now? I think I’ll run through the channels.’ It’s hard to imagine anyone in 2014 doing this, even my parents. Over two decades, our collective TV viewing habits have changed so much that it’s actually quite hard to remember old-style TV viewing.

I remember 1997 and Princess Diana’s death and being glued to CNN for hours. The same for 9/11. But when Michael Jackson died in 2009, I was in my dining room writing when a friend texted to tell me. Instead of turning on CNN, I went right to the internet and it was only hours later that I thought, ‘Hmmm . . . I wonder how TV is covering this.’ A shift had occurred.”

 

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Research has shown that a gentrifying neighborhood rocked by a shocking headline murder doesn’t stop gentrifying. The glaring, but rare, tragedy isn’t enough to reverse progress. The rewards of having a piece of an interesting, but still affordable, community outweighs the risks. I think the same will be true of autonomous vehicles, which will make the streets and highways far safer even if occasionally there’s a loud crash.

One of the biggest moral quandaries about driverless cars is one on the margins: When a collision is imminent, software, not humans, would make the decision of who is likely to live and who is to die. I would think the fairest scenario would be to aim for the best outcome for the greatest number of those involved. But perhaps car owners will be able to opt into a “moral system” the way they can choose organ donation. Maybe they’ll be an insurance break for those who do. Who knows? It’s likely, though, that this decision, like the steering wheel itself, won’t be in our hands.

In Patrick Lin’s new Wired article, The Robot Car of Tomorrow May Just Be Programmed to Hit You,” he analyzes all aspects of this ethical problem. An excerpt:

“Suppose that an autonomous car is faced with a terrible decision to crash into one of two objects. It could swerve to the left and hit a Volvo sport utility vehicle (SUV), or it could swerve to the right and hit a Mini Cooper. If you were programming the car to minimize harm to others–a sensible goal–which way would you instruct it go in this scenario?

As a matter of physics, you should choose a collision with a heavier vehicle that can better absorb the impact of a crash, which means programming the car to crash into the Volvo. Further, it makes sense to choose a collision with a vehicle that’s known for passenger safety, which again means crashing into the Volvo.

But physics isn’t the only thing that matters here. Programming a car to collide with any particular kind of object over another seems an awful lot like a targeting algorithm, similar to those for military weapons systems. And this takes the robot-car industry down legally and morally dangerous paths.

Even if the harm is unintended, some crash-optimization algorithms for robot cars would seem to require the deliberate and systematic discrimination of, say, large vehicles to collide into. The owners or operators of these targeted vehicles would bear this burden through no fault of their own, other than that they care about safety or need an SUV to transport a large family. Does that sound fair?”

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The end is always near, depending on how you keep time. In 1925, a Long Island house painter-cum-preacher Robert Reidt convinced himself–and many others–that the four horsemen of the apocalypse were galloping with intent. A fireball was to strike New York City and Mars would provide refuge for only the souls that were saved, it was promised. The mania that ensued, which included casualties, was recalled four years later in an article in the October 8, 1929 Brooklyn Daily Eagle, published just days before a real disaster occurred–the financial crash that led to the Great Depression. A postscript: Despite Reidt’s seeming newfound humility on display in this report, he decided again in 1932 that the Earth was soon to be a goner. Thankfully, he was mistaken once more. The article:

Baldwin, L.I.–The crack of doom–or just the end of the world in every-day language–was formally predicted for the night of February 6, 1925.

Even if it didn’t come true, don’t you remember?

"Reidt neither looks nor talks like one would expect of a forecaster of such dire disaster."

“Reidt neither looks nor talks like one would expect of a forecaster of such dire disaster.”

The little groups of serious and intent men and women–‘brides of the lamb’–who stayed up and shivered all that mid-winter night in tumble-down shacks in Patchogue and Valley Stream, L.I., awaiting the bolt of flames, the cloud of smoke, and the outpouring of floods that were to blast all earthly life. Stripped of their possessions for the end, and watching intently the slowly moving hands of the clock that didn’t strike the appointed doom.

Dawn and disillusionment. Shattered faith, and existences to be picked up all over again.

Modern Paul Revere.

And the grim, determined, exhorting young leader of the Long Island believers, Robert Reidt, the Prophet of Doom. And his rides for weeks over snow and ice in his battered model T Ford as the modern Paul Revere of a crashing and crumpling sphere. 

In the three and a half years since he sent shivers up many backs and the world failed him by rolling merrily on, Reidt has become convinced that he is a better house painter than prophet.

So, a bit taciturn and something of a recluse, he is sticking to his painting and papering in and about this fast growing community, forgetful of doom and refusing to commit himself on it. He has, indeed, renounced the role of a prophet. An excellent workman, they say here, he has rebuilt his fortunes since coming through broke and virtually homeless, with a brood of four youngsters to support on the dawn when the sun surprised him by coming up.

Reidt neither looks nor talks like one would expect of a forecaster of such dire disaster. He has a broad Dutch smile, a sense of humor that has mellowed of late, and a neatly trimmed mustache. He also wears good clothes and taken on a bit of weight since he gave night and day to obtaining converts to his miscalculated crackling.

His youngsters, two boys and two girls, go to school and play with their neighbors children in Lynbrook, where they live with their mother. They don’t know doom was ever ordained.

"Mrs. Rowen disappeared from her Hollywood home for some time when the movement she had started failed to stand the test of time."

“Mrs. Rowen disappeared from her Hollywood home for some time when the movement she had started failed to stand the test of time.”

In all, Main Street and the cities, plains and mountains, there were 140,000 ‘brides of the lamb’ keeping the vigil that, they were told, would furnish them refuge on Mars while unbelievers perished in space. They took their cues from Mrs. Margaret Rowen, Hollywood ‘prophet,’ who has since turned seeress, and Reidt dropped his paint bucket and brush around Christmas time, in 1924, to take charge of recruiting the ‘brides of the lamb’ in the metropolitan district.

The ‘Prophet of Doom’ rushed into print, and mostly on the front pages, with the impending sweep of fire, smoke and water that was to signalize the second coming of Christ, destruction of the sinful world, and the corralling of the faithful for the greater adventure. Biblical prophecies and astronomical calculations entered into the fixing of the date, positively. The exhortations went into every corner of the world.

Even though the newsprints and public generally failed to heed the th sounding note of doom seriously, the followers of Mrs. Rowen and on Long Island, of Reidt and his aide, John Downs, carpenter, enlisted the largest army the world has witnessed for th impending devastation. It was fully three times as large as the ‘Doomsday’ believers of 1848. There was, in the wake of the prophecy and waiting for the end, a fair share of tragedies.

A woman in Pennsylvania committed suicide. A 12-year-old boy ran away from home in Greenpoint and was found weeping at the altar in a Catholic Church. A disillusioned adherent hung himself on the West Side of Manhattan, and in Michigan a farmer, who had been planning a life of ease and travel on $35,000 head saved, killed himself and wounded his wife.

And, too, a few of the faithful gave up their jobs as they came to believe the prophecy, wondering what good work would do them.

The widest drawn tragedy that went with disillusionment, though, through Long Island and through the country, was the lack of material possessions most of the 140,000 had to face the world with when the ball kept spinning.

Part of the ritual for becoming a ‘bride of the lamb’ was for believers to disavow their worldly goods as the zero hour approached. Some, or perhaps most, of the followers were fortunate in that friends took just temporary care of their possessions as they prepared to await. Others had long, hard pulls in the chill of mid-winter as their rewards.

The little group at Valley Stream that sat up in the home of Mrs. Katherine B. Kennedy, with only enough coal to last them until dawn, renounced Mrs. Rowen and all prophets when dawn came up instead of doom.

The largest group that waited with Reidt and his lieutenants were more patient, for a while. They said that the end might just be delayed. Then they went, gradually, back to work and their families, Reidt moving for the time being to Newark before returning to Long Island and settling down in Baldwin.

Mrs. Rowen disappeared from her Hollywood home for some time when the movement she had started failed to stand the test of time. There was talk out there of an investigation to determine what had become of funds collected from believers and supposedly sent to her for spreading her prophecies, but nothing ever came of it, and the prophetess went in for occultism. 

Reidt is through with propheting. He’s satisfied to stick to his paints.”

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Donations for body moisturizer needed (Chelsea)

My friend has a skin condition where she has to use moisturizer every day, otherwise her skin cracks and dries out and she gets lines all over her body. If left too long it literally starts to look like snake skin.

She has to use so much that it’s becoming expensive to maintain, and she doesn’t have very much money.

If you have any moisturizing products in your bathroom that you never use or want to get rid of, or unwanted gifts that you receive, please contact me so I can help her out.

Any brand will do, as long as it is moisturizer to keep the skin hydrated. Thank you.

From a 1979 People article about the auto-racing exploits of Est scream machine Werner Erhard, who has always been a piece of work:

“For hours mechanics have been fine-tuning the squat red-and-silver race car, while assistants check their clipboards and keep the Watkins Glen (N.Y.) bivouac free of litter and strangers. One fan wanders through in a T-shirt with the baffling slogan: ‘Before I was different, now I’m the same.’ Presently the driver emerges from an enormous van, astronaut-like in his creamy flame-proof suit, and heads for the Formula Super Vee racer (named for its Volkswagen engine). At the wave of a flag he will roar around a 3.3-mile Grand Prix course at speeds up to 130 mph. 

There are 29 other qualifiers in this Gold Cup event, but only driver Werner Erhard claims he is here for the sake of mankind. Erhard, the founder of est (Erhard seminars training), says that when he slides into his 164-horsepower Argo JM4, he is raising consciousness, not merely dust. 

‘Real people—you and me—feel like they don’t make any difference in this lousy world,’ says the 43-year-old Erhard. He is tall and loose-limbed with icy blue eyes; he insists on eye contact during a conversation. If his listener looks away, even momentarily, Erhard stops talking. He wants everyone to understand why he is driving fast cars these days in addition to heading the $20 million business that est has become, plus a 1977 spin-off, his program ‘to end world hunger by 1997.’ ‘I wanted to organize a high-performance team,’ Erhard continues, ‘that could master a complex skill in a very short time with winning results and show that everyone involved makes a big difference, from grease monkeys to spectators.’ In order to prove this estian point, Erhard says he considered such adventures as skydiving and karate, but rejected them as not collective enough. ‘Auto racing was perfect!’ he exclaims. ‘I hadn’t driven a car in six years and didn’t know the first thing about racing. Whatever we’d achieve, we’d achieve together.’”

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“I found it a remarkable technology”:

Cognitive enhancement, through electric stimulation or drugs or genetic manipulation, is certainly our future. While it’s a serious business, some of the early efforts have come dressed in leisure clothes: Gamers are using brain-stimulation devices to give them an edge. Ethicist Hannah Maslen of the Conversation thinks regulation should start with these early adopters, even if their high scores are essentially meaningless. An excerpt:

“Our recommendations are not at all motivated by a belief that access to cognitive enhancement devices should be restricted in general. Instead, we think that consumer freedom is optimised when the products that people buy in fact do what the manufacturers claim they do, and when people have the information they need to properly assess which risks they are willing to take.

For my colleague Julian Savulescu, cognitive enhancement devices are just the tip of the iceberg. We will start to see more and more technologies that are aimed at enhancing human performance so we need to strike the right balance now. If we fall prey to scaremongering, we run the risk of over regulating but public safety is vital. The key is to inform the public properly about these devices so they can live their lives as they choose, taking reasonable risks if they want to.

The best option would be to filter the most dangerous enhancement devices out of the market. No one wants to use a device that will definitely cause them great harm and this is especially true if there are ways to make the same or similar device safer. This would also leave individuals free to choose which small-to-moderate risks they want to take in pursuit of enhanced cognitive capacities, whether that be for learning languages, mastering maths or eliminating the enemy in Call of Duty.”

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