Urban Studies

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It isn’t often that a corporate acquisition results in the acquirer setting up an ethics board to govern the work which will result from the collaboration. But that’s what’s apparently happened with Google’s purchase of DeepMind Technologies. From Jason Inofuentes at ArsTechnica:

London-based DeepMind was founded in 2010, and it has brought together some of the preeminent researchers in deep learning. The company has a staff of 50-75, with 30 PhDs in a particular subset of machine learning called ‘deep learning,’ the development of algorithms that allow machines to learn as humans do. Deep learning models eschew pre-scripted forms of artificial intelligence and instead rely on experiential learning based on rudimentary capabilities. The models require vast server networks and can be broadly applied to any problem that requires advanced pattern recognition.

DeepMind’s well-funded work hasn’t yielded any commercial products, but a recent paper (PDF) demonstrates how far the company has come. In the paper, DeepMind’s researchers describe a neuronal network that was able to learn how to play Breakout, the Atari 2600 game. …

The DeepMind purchase price seems to be up for debate, but The Information is reporting an interesting non-financial wrinkle to the deal: an ethics board will have the authority to determine how Google is allowed to implement artificial intelligence research. DeepMind reportedly insisted on the board’s establishment before reaching a deal.”

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Just read psychologist Adam Alter’s 2013 book, Drunk Tank Pink, which I really enjoyed even if some of the historical material he presents is well-worn. (Oh, and even though I think the connection the author draws between Usain Bolt’s surname and his career success is overstated. Jamaican steering committees responded to those fast-twitch leg muscles and stop-watch times, not his thunderous “title.”) A brief passage in the section about social isolation discusses the experience of French speleologist Michel Siffre who insinuated himself into the Space Race in the 1960s by conducting extreme self-deprivation experiments, in an attempt to anticipate how such conditions would effect astronauts. In 1962, Siffre lived within the solitude of an underground glacier to test the effect on his mental faculties. The following decade, he spent 205 days alone in a Texas cave. A Cousteau who does not get wet, Siffre has dived so deep inside of himself that time has seemed to cease.

Alter’s writing reminded me of a 2008 Cabinet interview that Joshua Foer, that memory enthusiast, conducted with the time-isolation explorer. The opening:

Joshua Foer:

In 1962, you were just twenty-three years old. What made you decide to live underground in complete isolation for sixty-three days?

Michel Siffre:

You have to understand, I was a geologist by training. In 1961, we discovered an underground glacier in the Alps, about seventy kilometers from Nice. At first, my idea was to prepare a geological expedition, and to spend about fifteen days underground studying the glacier, but a couple of months later, I said to myself, “Well, fifteen days is not enough. I shall see nothing.” So, I decided to stay two months. And then this idea came to me—this idea that became the idea of my life. I decided to live like an animal, without a watch, in the dark, without knowing the time.

Joshua Foer:

Instead of studying caves, you ended up studying time.

Michel Siffre:

Yes, I invented a simple scientific protocol. I put a team at the entrance of the cave. I decided I would call them when I woke up, when I ate, and just before I went to sleep. My team didn’t have the right to call me, so that I wouldn’t have any idea what time it was on the outside. Without knowing it, I had created the field of human chronobiology. Long before, in 1922, it had been discovered that rats have an internal biological clock. My experiment showed that humans, like lower mammals, have a body clock as well.”

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In his just-published New York magazine column, “Stop Beating a Dead Fox,” Frank Rich states the obvious in saying that Fox News actually hurts the GOP and the great majority of its viewers are likely taking medication that may cause weakness, insomnia, dizziness, chest pain, peripheral edema, rash, abdominal pain, constipation, diarrhea, dyspepsia, flatulence, nausea, urinary tract infection, arthralgia, myalgia, back pain, arthritis, sinusitis, pharyngitis, bronchitis, rhinitis, infection, flu-like syndrome and allergic reaction. But, oh, how he states it. Just one paragraph:

“It was the right call. For all its ratings prowess and fat profits, Fox, like the GOP itself, is under existential threat in a fast-changing 21st-century America. Indeed, Megyn Kelly, the latest blonde star in an Ailes stable that seems to emulate Hitchcock’s leading-lady predilections in looks and inchoate malevolence, was promoted to her prime-time perch last year precisely to bring in a younger, less monochromatic audience. It’s a mission that neither she nor any other on-camera talent can accomplish. All three cable-news networks are hemorrhaging young viewers (as are their network-news counterparts) in an era when television is hardly the news medium of choice for Americans raised online and on smartphones. But Fox News is losing younger viewers at an even faster rate than its competitors. With a median viewer age now at 68 according to Nielsen data through mid-January (compared with 60 for MSNBC and CNN, and 62 to 64 for the broadcast networks), Fox is in essence a retirement community.”

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"These cranks pound and slap and otherwise punish their members."

“These cranks pound and slap and otherwise punish their members.”

Buried deep in the annals of American theological history in the ass-stomping branch of Christianity described in the following article from the January 12, 1893 edition of the Brooklyn Daily Eagle:

Kalamazoo, Mich.–The noisy Carterites still continue their disturbance at Coloma, and the forbearance of the community has been sadly taxed. Recently Carter promulgated an order from on high to the effect that a tenth of all the property of the members must be paid into his hands for the Lord. It is also said that Carter threatened to kill his wife if she did not obey him. One of the members is reported to have willed his property to Carter in trust for the Lord. He is an old man, and was knocked down and dragged around in order to see whether he could stand the Holy Grace test. These cranks pound and slap and otherwise punish their members, while making the nights and Sundays hideous with their yells and howls for mercy. The thumpings they give each other are for the purpose knocking out the devils, they claim. Not long ago one of the members died, it is said, from the effects of the pounding he received when he joined the Chosen Seven. Carter was given a coat of tar and feathers some weeks since and the citizens threatened not only to repeat the dose but to run his followers out of town.”

"Borrowing your wheelchair will help me bring joy to many."

“I need a wheelchair for a number I am doing.”

Drag Queen needs Wheel Chair!

I am a drag queen.


I have a performance coming up soon and I need a wheelchair for a number I am doing.

Ideally, I would love to just BORROW a cheap (non-motorized) wheelchair if someone can lend me one.

I can even possibly kick a few bucks your way as a thank you.

Borrowing your wheelchair will help me bring joy to many in a really unique performance that will be seen by hundreds.

(No, it’s not a performance I’m being paid for, which is why I don’t have a budget to buy a wheelchair.)

Thanks for any help! 

Two excerpts from Robin Kawakami’s Wall Street Journal article in which Google’s Peter Norvig and physicist and software designer Stephen Wolfram discuss the technology on display in Spike Jonze’s Her:

  • Norvig comparing today’s computers to HAL of 2001: A Space Odyssey:

“Going back to a more rudimentary science fiction computer—HAL from Stanley Kubrick’s 2001: A Space Odyssey—Norvig noted that in some ways, today’s computers have already surpassed those capabilities. ‘HAL was really limited in that he had a number of eyes throughout the spaceship, and he could see the astronauts,’ he said. But HAL, being a mainframe computer, was also crippled by his design. ‘He wasn’t as mobile as what we have today with our robots that can move around, or even our phones and our laptops have this greater physical capability.'”

  • Wolfram on technology’s predictive powers:

Exploring personality amplification through technology is a key concept from the film for Wolfram. In the same way that various gadgets enhance our abilities—whether it’s finding our way around with a GPS or moving objects with machines—an AI might enable us to accomplish certain goals, just as Samantha nudged Theodore toward a book contract. ‘What could you achieve by having an emotional connection to a sophisticated, AI-like thing?’ he said. ‘Can you be the best instance of what you intended to be?’

On the same token, can an AI-driven agenda aimed at personal improvement actually limit us? Since machines are generally better at predicting a little bit into the future than humans are, Wolfram sees a possibility of people following computer recommendations. ‘A funny view of the future is that everybody is going around looking at the sequence of auto-suggests,’ he said. ‘And pretty soon the machines are in charge.'”

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Apart from a shiv, the thing I’d most like to have if I were incarcerated would be a Sony SRF-39FP, the most popular radio in the big house. It’s manufactured specifically for inmates, with a transparent case to prevent its use as a container for contraband. From “The iPod of Prison,” by Joshua Hunt at the New Yorker blog:

The pocket analog radio, known by the bland model number SRF-39FP, is a Sony ‘ultralight’ model manufactured for prisons. Its clear housing is meant to prevent inmates from using it to smuggle contraband, and, at under thirty dollars, it is the most affordable Sony radio on the prison market.

That market consists of commissaries, which were established by the Department of Justice in 1930 to provide prisoners with items not supplied by their institutions; by offering a selection of shampoos and soaps, they shifted personal hygiene costs to inmates, while distractions like playing cards eased tensions among the nation’s growing prison population. More than half a million inmates each week shop at commissaries stocked by the Keefe Group, a privately held company that sells items to the Federal Bureau of Prisons, and twelve out of fourteen privately managed state departments of corrections. A sample commissary order form lists items like an I.B.M. typewriter ribbon, hair dye, RC Cola, Sensodyne toothpaste, chili-garlic sauce, Koss CL-20 headphones, and a ‘Sony Radio.’

Commissaries often carry other, bargain-brand radios, but according to former inmates and employees of the Bureau of Prisons and the Keefe Group, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, America’s federal prisoners are most likely to own a Sony. Melissa Dolan, a Sony spokesperson, confirmed in an e-mail that selling portable radios in American prisons has long been a ‘stable business’ that represents ‘sizable’ sales for the company. Of the models available, the SRF-39FP remains an undisputed classic, still found on commissary lists an impressive fifteen years after its initial release, making it nearly as common behind prison walls as Apple’s iPod once was outside of them, despite competition from newer devices like digital radios and MP3 players.”

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Serge Gainsbourg and Brigitte Bardot singing an ode in 1967 to comic strips might seem an odd thing, but Roy Lichtenstein had already transformed the medium into high art. As long as it’s not Gainsboug performing a duet with his daughter Charlotte called “Lemon Incest,” that’s all I ask for.

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In a Washington Post article about power looms coming to factories in 19th-century Massachusetts, James Bessen suggests that the Information Age will ultimately confer wealth to workers as the Industrial Age previously did, something that is certainly possible but not definite. An excerpt:

“When Charles Dickens visited Lowell in 1842, he reported back to his English readers three facts that he thought many of them would find ‘preposterous’: young girls who worked in the mills played the piano, they subscribed to circulating libraries and they published their own literary magazines. To the class-bound English, such activities were ‘above the station’ of factory workers.

British readers expected mill workers to come from the lower classes because the first British mills sought the cheapest labor. This lowest-common-denominator approach wouldn’t have worked in Lowell. While much of the machinery was copied from Britain, the mills were organized differently. In Britain, specialized workshops produced a variety of cloth goods, many of fine quality. In contrast, in Lowell all of the operations involved in turning raw cotton into finished cloth were conducted in one integrated facility. That allowed the production of a highly standardized product in large quantities.

Coordinating all aspects of production under one roof required specialized technical and business skills. The Waltham mill was one of the first business organizations to use professional managers, called mill agents, who were separate from stockholders (though many mill agents also owned stock).

Waltham mills also required a different kind of worker. Mass production demanded training on a large scale and the new technology demanded new skills. In the British craft workshops, sons often learned as informal apprentices to their fathers. But apprenticeships couldn’t quickly train the large numbers of workers the mills required. And technology was changing too quickly for formal classroom training to be practical. Instead, Lowell and his partners sought to recruit intelligent workers who could learn quickly from experience on the job.

This is why American mill owners encouraged the cultural enrichment activities Dickens found so ‘preposterous.'”

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When Timex introduced cheap, seemingly unbreakable watches in the 1950s, the product was given short shrift by both media and jewelers, but they soon were category leaders. The Timex Data Link of the 1990s, however, made in conjunction with Microsoft, was probably awarded too much credit. Before computers were tiny and powerful, the Data Link was the first watch that could receive downloaded information. It wasn’t good enough, but it was (sort of) the future. From a 1994 article in the New York Times:

“Talk about information at your fingertips. The Timex Corporation and the Microsoft Corporation said today that they had teamed up to develop a wristwatch that can store information received directly from a personal computer screen.

The Timex Data Link watch, which will cost about $130 when it goes on sale in September, uses a wireless optical scanning system to receive data from Microsoft software.

The Data Link watch was demonstrated today at a presentation by Microsoft’s chairman, Bill Gates, who held it up to a computer as a series of bar-code lines flashed on the screen. After several seconds, Mr. Gates was able to scroll through personal information like appointment locations and telephone numbers at the touch of a button on the watch.

Fast Sales Predicted

C. Michael Jacobi, the president of Timex, predicted that the company would sell 200,000 of the watches in the final three months of this year, making it the fastest-selling watch ever in its price category.

The new watch looks like a regular round sports watch and includes such standard digital watch functions as a calendar, light, dual time-zone settings and alarms.

Using a microchip developed by Timex with Motorola Inc., the watch can store about 70 messages in its memory, downloading them in about 20 seconds, officials said.

Each watch will include software compatible with Microsoft Windows 3.1 and the company’s scheduling applications, such as Schedule Plus. The software also will be compatible with future versions of Windows, including a ‘Chicago’ upgrade expected out by the end of the year.

Users simply need to hold the watch about a foot away from their computer screens to download data, which can be done as often as needed.

Laptops Won’t Work

However, road warriors will be disappointed to learn that the watch will not work with laptop computers, which do not have a strong enough lighting source in their screens, Timex officials said.”

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Unrelated to the Data Link but very beautiful, a 1965 commercial touting Timex’s waterproof properties:

A patent has been awarded to Google for a service in which the tech company would dispatch an autonomous taxi to your door, which would whisk you for free to a designated destination that wants your business (a casino or a mall, say). Will things go a step further and a car be sent without your beckoning, before you know even you wanted to go out, à la Amazon’s reported shipping plans? From Frederic Lardinois at TechCrunch:

“Google may soon offer a new service that combines its advertising business with its knowledge about local transport options, taxis and – in the long run – autonomous cars. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office last week granted Google a patent for arranging free (or highly discounted) transportation to an advertiser’s business location.

Here’s how it works. Say a Vegas casino really wants your business. Not only could it offer you some free coins, but if it deems the cost worthwhile (using Google’s automated algorithms, of course), it could just offer you a free taxi ride or send an autonomous car to pick you up.”

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From the July 26, 1890 New York Times:

“A duel recently took place in a traveling circus temporarily stationed in a village outside Paris, and very curious were the consequences. ‘Two acrobats,’ says a dispatch to the London Daily Telegraph, ‘quarreled, and resolved to fight a duel. The place chosen was the ring–after the public performance, of course–the conditions being two shots at twenty-five paces. As usual, neither of the combatants was hurt, and their wounded honors being satisfied the incident terminated. The duelists and their seconds overlooked the presence of two members of their company, who were quietly munching nuts in a corner. These were two trained monkeys, who had been taught to ride around the ring as soldiers, and to fire pistols en route. The monkeys saw the performance of their masters, and when the way was clear they resolved to imitate it. Gravely loading their pistols they faced each other–not at twenty-five paces, but at five–and fired. They both fell dead, one with its head nearly blown off and the other shot in the breast. At the sound of the shots the master of the circus rushed in and found the bodies of the imitative duelists in the ring with the still smoking pistols lying beside them.”

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“You wouldn’t know brilliant if you sucked it’s dick!”

Screw you to ALL my previous employers!!!

If I have ever worked for you, I would like to extend a huge, cold, “fuck you” to you! I can’t wait to laugh at you as you all get aneurysms from your fucked up daily grind and desperate squirming for money. See, it turns out that I am an inventor and innovator. I couldn’t do your bullshit because you’re so fucking boring and devoid of ANY creativity. All I could do is fucking fall asleep from your repetitive bullshit! I made over $7,300,000 in November and see it doubling in the first half of December from just one $80.00 invention that cost me $600 to research and develop…and you probably own one. So all you fucking “be here at 7:30 AM” cock-sucking bosses can all die of heart attacks, for all I give a shit. You can all suck my nuts. You are all slimy, greedy, abusive, immoral, evil to the bone cocksuckers. You fuck all your customers and all your workers, you shit-buckets! I stole fuckloads of time from you assholes – not to mention I’d rummage through your private shit every once in a while. That’s how I know that one of you left your wife because your sperm could only generate girls. You left your wife because she gave you the daughter who you now cherish, you worthless half-an-asshole. Then you went and had six more girls with four other women. You wouldn’t know brilliant if you sucked it’s dick!

Now, all you hard working bosses can enjoy still having to wake up at 4:30 every morning to RUSH to work to make sure nobody is late. I sleep until noon, wake up, turn on the tube, smoke a fat fucking blunt with my Corn Pops, jam on the piano or drums (or guitar or harmonica for that matter), dip in the pool, play with the dogs and take my fucking time through life with a joint constantly dangling from my lips. No more appointments, paychecks, time-clocks, your stupid fucking faces, your complaints about how I’m not doing shit your way (when if you had done shit my way, you would have made more money, stupid).

So, while you assholes are sweating which of your employees pisses too long while you sit in your car on the Gowanus Parking Lot every morning, think of what I’m doing during your torment…I’m sleeping in a nice, warm, soft, quiet bed, right next to a warm woman waiting for my natural wake-up chemicals to wake me. Then I take my time and play with the wife in bed and then go about my day…of getting blazed and chillin’ by the fireplace while you develop blood clots, cancers and other competitors in the race to kill you. My money’s on hypertension. All of you ungodly sewer scum need to invent something and work smart. You are all neanderthals. Go fuck yourselves!

P.S. I fucked one of your wives…twice.

Orwell, of course, was the main inspiration for Apple’s “1984” Super Bowl ad by Ridley Scott, but it also riffed on Fritz Lang’s Metropolis, which is perhaps more influential from a visual perspective than any other work of art ever. Sure, Lang’s plot was overheated, but, my god, those images. You can’t truly be literate about media without having seen it.

The Apple spot “went viral” thirty years ago, even though it was shown only once, and there was yet no infrastructure for it to be propelled by person to person. What careered around the world wasn’t the actual spot but verbal descriptions of it. It was the collision of a new thing (computers) and an old thing (oral history). And soon enough, the centralized media was smashed, though that didn’t make the world perfect. Tyranny doesn’t disappear; it just attempts to reinvent itself.

Steve Jobs introduces the commercial at the 1984 Apple keynote.

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If I had titled this post “Cuddly Panda Tries To Recover From Penis Injury,” it would have had a much better chance of going viral. For a couple thousand years–and never more than now during the Internet Age–philosophers and scientists have wondered why certain content is spread from person to person. Why is some information more likely to connect us, even if it’s not the most vital to our safety and survival? The answer does not flatter us. From Maria Konnikova at the New Yorker blog:

“In 350 B.C., Aristotle was already wondering what could make content—in his case, a speech—persuasive and memorable, so that its ideas would pass from person to person. The answer, he argued, was three principles: ethos, pathos, and logos. Content should have an ethical appeal, an emotional appeal, or a logical appeal. A rhetorician strong on all three was likely to leave behind a persuaded audience. Replace rhetorician with online content creator, and Aristotle’s insights seem entirely modern. Ethics, emotion, logic—it’s credible and worthy, it appeals to me, it makes sense. If you look at the last few links you shared on your Facebook page or Twitter stream, or the last article you e-mailed or recommended to a friend, chances are good that they’ll fit into those categories.

Aristotle’s diagnosis was broad, and tweets, of course, differ from Greek oratory. So Berger, who is now a professor of marketing at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, worked with another Penn professor, Katherine Milkman, to put his interest in content-sharing to an empirical test. Together, they analyzed just under seven thousand articles that had appeared in the Times in 2008, between August 30th and November 30th, to try to determine what distinguished pieces that made the most-emailed list. After controlling for online and print placement, timing, author popularity, author gender, length, and complexity, Berger and Milkman found that two features predictably determined an article’s success: how positive its message was and how much it excited its reader. Articles that evoked some emotion did better than those that evoked none—an article with the headline ‘BABY POLAR BEAR’S FEEDER DIES’ did better than ‘TEAMS PREPARE FOR THE COURTSHIP OF LEBRON JAMES.’ But happy emotions (‘WIDE-EYED NEW ARRIVALS FALLING IN LOVE WITH THE CITY’) outperformed sad ones (‘WEB RUMORS TIED TO KOREAN ACTRESS’S SUICIDE’).

Just how arousing each emotion was also made a difference.”

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“When he appeared in a woman’s role he wore a corset tightly laced.”

Constrictive garments for women have never been healthy and the same holds true for men. A vaudevillian trying to pass for a damsel was killed by his unmentionables according to an article in the November 5, 1912 New York Times. The story:

“ST. LOUIS–Tight lacing caused the death last night of Joseph Hennella, a female impersonator, at the City Hospital, after collapsing on the stage of a South Side vaudeville theatre late on Sunday night.

In order to add to the illusion when he appeared in a woman’s role he wore a corset tightly laced, to give the effect of a small waist.

Hannella fell unconscious on the stage in the course of his act. He died three hours later. The hospital physicians said the tight lacing had caused a kidney trouble and induced a tendency to apoplexy. Hennella was of medium height, and inclined to be stout. He was 40 years old. In his younger days it was easy for him to get the feminine lines, but lately his increasing girth made it necessary for him to lace extremely tight to create the illusion. Usually he made several changes of costume in the course of an act, and the constriction caused by the corset rendered this a fatiguing and laborious process.”

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If recognize years in advance that a good-sized asteroid is to strike Earth, there are methods of deflection. But what if the notice is much shorter? From an Ask Me Anything at Reddit by Ed Liu, a former U.S. astronaut who’s now in the asteroid-nullification business:

Question:

Theoretically, if we learned that a moderately large asteroid was going to impact populated land on earth in 72 hours, would we do anything about it or do we not have the capability right now?

Ed Liu:

Evacuation would be our only option then, and depending on the size of the asteroid, that may not even be possible. Best not to get into this situation and instead lets find out years or even decades in advance. BTW, I was one of millions of people who evacuated Houston for a hurricane back in 2004. Believe me, evacuating that many people is not an easy thing! It took us nearly 12 hours just to drive to Austin.”

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Relatively slow and expensive, the Navia from Induct is nonetheless revolutionary for being the first completely autonomous car to come to market. Built for a campus-shuttle level of transportation, the robotic, electric vehicle speeds to only 20 miles per hour and costs $250K, but Brad Templeton, a consultant to Google’s driverless-car division, explains in a short list why it’s still an important step.

Now 20km/h (12mph) is not very fast, though suitable for a campus shuttle. This slow speed and limited territory may make some skeptical that this is an important development, but it is.

  1. This is a real product, ready to deploy with civilians, without its own dedicated track or modified infrastructure.
  2. The price point is actually quite justifiable to people who operate shuttles today, as a shuttle with human driver can cost this much in 1.5 years or less of operation.
  3. It smashes the concept of the NHTSA and SAE ‘Levels’ which have unmanned operation as the ultimate level after a series of steps. The Navia is at the final level already, just over a constrained area and at low speed. If people imagined the levels were a roadmap of predicted progress, that was incorrect.
  4. Real deployment is teaching us important things. For example, Navia found that once in operation, teen-agers would deliberately throw themselves in front of the vehicle to test it. Pretty stupid, but a reminder of what can happen.

The low speed does make it much easier to make the vehicle safe. But now it become much easier to show that over time, the safe speed can rise as the technology gets better and better.”

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Working the city center in Lyon, France, which is also home to an IBM pilot program for new traffic-management technology:

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Gossip really bothers me on a visceral level, but I have to acknowledge its utility. Before news organs with something to lose will touch a story, whispers carry the day. And most of it’s petty and garbage and untrue, but occasionally it can be an insurgency. Sometimes gossip, the original viral information, is the fastest route to justice.

In 1973, gossipmonger Rona Barrett and Sir Clement Freud, the polymath grandson of Sigmund Freud, got into a dust-up on a program Jack Paar hosted years after he abandoned the Tonight Show.

From Freud’s 2009 obituary in the Telegraph: “In England the bearded Freud, who bore an uncanny resemblance to King Edward VII, became a household name appearing in dog food commercials alongside an equally mournful bloodhound named Henry.

His journalistic output was prodigious, running the gamut from the New Yorker to the pre-Murdoch Sun. He was at his best writing on food and drink (he had been an apprentice at the Dorchester and trained at the Martinez in Cannes). He wrote about recalcitrant head waiters, overrated chefs and curmudgeonly customs officers, waging a ceaseless battle against their arrogance, even though not always free of the trait himself.

Once, having waited 25 minutes for turtle soup, he told the waitress: ‘If you are making fresh turtle soup it is going to take two days, and we do not have the time. If it is canned turtle soup, I do not wish to eat here if it takes you 25 minutes to open a can.’”

Medical consultations (NY)

Physician will barter medical expertise during times of healthcare crisis. What services do u offer in return?

I have major philosophical differences with Facebook, but I seriously doubt it will be a virtual ghost town by 2017. But Princeton researchers, acting as social-media epidemiologists, disagree. So on the day that Sheryl Sandberg became a billionaire (was so pulling for her), some are predicting that the plague will soon be over. From Juliette Garside in the Guardian:

“Facebook has spread like an infectious disease but we are slowly becoming immune to its attractions, and the platform will be largely abandoned by 2017, say researchers at Princeton University.

The forecast of Facebook’s impending doom was made by comparing the growth curve of epidemics to those of online social networks. Scientists argue that, like bubonic plague, Facebook will eventually die out.

The social network, which celebrates its 10th birthday on 4 February, has survived longer than rivals such as Myspace and Bebo, but the Princeton forecast says it will lose 80% of its peak user base within the next three years.

John Cannarella and Joshua Spechler, from the US university’s mechanical and aerospace engineering department, have based their prediction on the number of times Facebook is typed into Google as a search term. The charts produced by the Google Trends service show Facebook searches peaked in December 2012 and have since begun to trail off.

‘Ideas, like diseases, have been shown to spread infectiously between people before eventually dying out, and have been successfully described with epidemiological models,’ the authors claim in a paper entitled Epidemiological modelling of online social network dynamics.”

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From the March 13, 1892 Brooklyn Daily Eagle:

“Joseph Williams of Fiftieth Street in this city, and Joseph Driscoll of 7 Washington Street, New York, got into a row in a New Street pool room Friday afternoon. They began by calling each other names and then went out into the street to fight it out. Joe Ellingsworth, the prize fighter, urged them on, but he got disgusted with their lack of courage and gave them both a good beating.”

The photo I used to accompany the earlier post about computer intelligence and the photo above are 1966 pictures of John McCarthy, the person who coined the term “Artificial Intelligence.” It was in that year the technologist organized a correspondence chess match (via telegraph) between his computer program and one in Russia. McCarthy lost the series of matches but obviously won in a larger sense. A brief passage about the competition from his Stanford obituary:

“In 1960, McCarthy authored a paper titled, ‘Programs with Common Sense,’ laying out the principles of his programming philosophy and describing ‘a system which is to evolve intelligence of human order.’

McCarthy garnered attention in 1966 by hosting a series of four simultaneous computer chess matches carried out via telegraph against rivals in Russia. The matches, played with two pieces per side, lasted several months. McCarthy lost two of the matches and drew two. ‘They clobbered us,’ recalled [Les] Earnest.

Chess and other board games, McCarthy would later say, were the ‘Drosophila of artificial intelligence,’ a reference to the scientific name for fruit flies that are similarly important in the study of genetics.”

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AI can’t do everything humans can do, but any responsibilities that both are capable of handling will be assumed, almost completely, by robots. There’s pretty much no way around that. From a Popular Science report by Kelsey D. Atherton about the proposed robotization of the U.S. military:

“By the middle of this century, U.S. Army soldiers may well be fighting alongside robotic squadmates. General Robert Cone revealed the news at an Army Aviation symposium last week, noting that the Army is considering reducing the size of a Brigade Combat Team from 4,000 soldiers to 3,000, with robots and drones making up for the lost firepower. Cone is in charge of U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC), the part of the Army responsible for future planning and organization. If the Army can still be as effective with fewer people to a unit, TRADOC will figure out what technology is needed to make that happen.

While not explicitly stated, a major motivation behind replacing humans with robots is that humans are expensive. Training, feeding, and supplying them while at war is pricey, and after the soldiers leave the service, there’s a lifetime of medical care to cover. In 2012, benefits for serving and retired members of the military comprised one-quarter of the Pentagon’s budget request.”

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History professors who’ve lectured about Luddites have, in some instances, become Luddites themselves. Massively Open Online Courses (MOOCS) threaten to disrupt universities, largely a luxury good for mostly economy shoppers. It’s a deserved challenge to the system, and that’s the type of challenge that wrankles the most. From Thomas Rodham Wells’ essay on the subject at the Philosopher’s Beard:

“The most significant feature of MOOCs is that they have the potential to mitigate the cost disease phenomenon in higher education, and thus disrupt its economic conventions, rather as the recorded music industry did for string quartets. Of course MOOCs aren’t the same thing as residential degree programme classroom courses with tenured professors. In at least some respects they are a clearly inferior product. But then, listening to a CD isn’t the same experience as listening to a string quartet, nor are movies the same as theatre. But they are pretty good substitutes for many purposes, especially when the difference in price between them is so dramatic. And, like MOOCs, they also have non-pecuniary advantages over the original, such as user control and enormous quality improvements on some dimensions.

I think this cost advantage is the real challenge the opponents of MOOCs have to address. Why isn’t this cheap alternative good enough? Given that one can now distribute recordings of lectures by the most brilliant and eloquent academics in the world for a marginal cost of close to zero, the idea that a higher education requires collecting millions of 18-25 year olds together in residential schools in order to attend lectures by relative mediocrities and read the books collected in the university library needs a justification. Otherwise it will come to seem an expensive and elitist affectation. Like paying for a real string quartet at your party, or a handmade mechanical watch rather than just one that works.”

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“The classroom no longer has anything comparable to the answers outside the classroom”:

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