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Via Matt Cantor at Newswer, a few quotes from Jeff Bezos during his visit to the Washington Post offices:

  • “If it’s hopeless, I would feel sorry for you guys, but I wouldn’t want to join you,” he said, per journalist Cara Ann Kelly.
  • Still, “What’s been happening over the last several years can’t continue to happen.”
  • “It should be as easy to get a subscription to the Post as it is to buy diapers on Amazon.”
  • “People will buy a package,” but “they will not pay for (an individual) story.”
  • “All businesses need to be forever young … If your customer base ages with you as a company, you’re Woolworth’s.”
  • As to content: “Don’t be boring.”

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On his new ESPN show, Keith Olbermann just interviewed author David Epstein, whose book, The Sports Gene, I blogged about earlier in the week. In this segment, he explains the two-fold reason why Jamaica turns out the world’s greatest sprinters.

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Perhaps no act in modern life speaks more aptly to these very democratic, decentralized and dumb times like the taking of the selfie, that narcissistic attempt to pretend that the minutiae of our lives is important. It’s the new religion. But not everyone agrees it’s a bad thing. Sarah Hepola defends the digital obsession in the Morning News. An excerpt:

“These days, the sight of someone pulling over to the side of the road—or standing at a bar, or flashing a peace sign in front of a building, or waiting at the drive-thru in the front seat of the car—and taking a picture of themselves is not bizarre at all. We live in the endlessly documented moment, and the arm outstretched with that small, omnipotent rectangle held aloft is one of the defining postures of our time. We’ve had selfie scandals, from Weiner’s weiner to Amanda Bynes’ meltdown. We’ve had a million billion cautionary tales about sending erotic selfies, though it doesn’t seem to stop anyone. Criminals take selfies and so do cops. The presidential selfie surely could not be far behind. (On this, Hillary was first.) 

But people are also worried about the selfie. Well, worried and irritated. Several trend stories have pondered the psychological damage on a generation that would rather take a picture of their life than actually live it. A recent studyfound that posting too many selfies annoys people (for this, they needed science?). Last month, the word made its way into the Oxford Dictionaries Online, but it has also become something of a smear, another tacky emblem of a culture that has directed all possible spotlights toward its own sucked-in cheeks. ‘Are you going to take a selfie?’ a friend asked with mock derision when I pulled out my phone at dinner to check the time. And it was clearly a joke, but I wasn’t sure if he was making fun of people who do such things, or the fact that I was one of them.

I have many friends who would never take a selfie. Never, ever. The practice is too conceited and unserious, and it would hurt them in their perfectionist bones in the way that 10 mariachis showing up at the dinner table and singing ‘Happy Birthday’ would hurt them. Sometimes life can be too embarrassing.

But I am a selfie enthusiast—I’m not yet ready to say ‘selfie addict’—who has to constantly monitor my own usage.”

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“The instant the heart ceased to beat there was the sudden and almost uncanny diminishment in weight.”

Good science wasn’t at the heart of an experiment aimed at weighing “souls,” as recorded in an article in the March 11, 1907 New York Times:

Boston–That the human soul has a definite weight, which can be determined when it passes from the body, is the belief of Dr. Duncan Macdougall, a reputable physician of Haverhill. He is at the head of a Research Society which for six years has been experimenting in this field. With him, he says, have been associated four other physicians.

Dr. Macdougall’s object was to learn if the departure of the soul from the body was attended by any manifestation that could be recorded by any physical means. The chief means to which resort was made was the determination of the weight of a body before and after death.

The method followed was to place a dying patient in bed upon one of the platforms of a pair of scales made expressly for the experiments, and then to balance this weight by placing an equal weight in the opposite platform. These scales were constructed delicately enough to be sensitive to a weight of less than one-tenth of an ounce. In every case after death the platform opposite the one in which lay the subject to the test fell suddenly, Dr. Macdougall says. The figures on the dial index indicated the diminishment in weight. 

Dr. Macdougall told of the results of his experiments as follows:

‘Four other physicians under my direction made the first test upon a patient dying of tuberculosis. This man was one of the ordinary type of the usual American temperament, neither particularly high strung nor of marked phlegmatic disposition. We placed him, a few hours preceding death, upon a scale platform, which I had constructed and which was accurately balanced. Four hours later with five doctors in attendance he died.

‘The instant life ceased the opposite pan fell with a suddenness that was astonishing–as if something had suddenly been lifted from the body. Immediately all the usual deductions were made for physical loss of weight, and it was discovered that there was still a full ounce of weight unaccounted for.

‘I submitted another subject afflicted with the same disease and nearing death to the same experiment. He was a man of much the same temperament as the preceding patient and of about the same physical type. The same result happened at the passing of his life. The instant the heart ceased to beat there was the sudden and almost uncanny diminishment in weight.

‘As experimenters, each physician in attendance made figures of his own concerning this loss, and, at a consultation, these figures were compared. The unaccountable loss continued to be shown.

"The subject was that of a man with a larger physical build, with a pronounced sluggish temperament."

“The subject was that of a man with a larger physical build, with a pronounced sluggish temperament.”

‘But this was less remarkable than what took place in the third case. The subject was that of a man with a larger physical build, with a pronounced sluggish temperament. When life ceased, as the body lay in bed upon the scales, for a full minute there appeared to be no change in weight. The physicians waiting in the room looked into each other’s faces silently, shaking their heads to the conviction that our test had failed.

‘Then suddenly the same thing happened that had occurred in the other cases. There was a sudden diminution in weight, which was soon found to be the same as that of the preceding experiments.

‘I believe that this in this case, that of a phlegmatic man slow of thought and action, that the soul remained suspended in the body after death, during the minute that elapsed before it came to the consciousness of its freedom. There is no other way of accounting for it, and it is what might be expected to happen in a man of the subject’s temperament.

‘Three other cases were tried, including that of a woman, and in each it was established that a weight of from one-half to a full ounce departed from the body at the moment of expiration.”

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Just one entry from Roberto Baldwin’s fun Wired piece about tech items that were available thirty years ago in the Fall/Winter Sears catalog:

“Timex Sinclair 1000 Computer: $49

Catalog Description:

2K memory expands to a powerful 16K. Most of the 40 keys are programmed for up to five commands. ‘One Touch’ keyword entry system eliminates a great deal of typing keywords (RUN, LIST, PRINT, etc) all have their own single key entry. Pressure Sensitive, plastic membrane keyboard.

The Timex Sinclair 1000 Computer was the entry-level computer for anyone interested in computing. While it didn’t measure up to more sophisticated offerings from Atari and Texas Instruments, it could still connect to any TV and read and write to a compatible cassette recorder. If you splurged on the $40 16K RAM expansion, you could even play some of the hottest black and white games on the market.

The real power of the Sinclair 1000 was teaching you how to program in BASIC — something that would be helpful years later when you wanted to understand ’20 GOTO 10′ jokes. All of this and it was $48 cheaper in the Fall/Winter 1983 catalog than the one prior. Now that’s a value!”

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From “Disruptions: More Connected, Yet More Alone,” Nick Bilton’s New York Times article which wonders whether smartphone immersion is permanent or whether there will be a retreat from its ubiquity:

“In the late 1950s, televisions started to move into the kitchen from the living room, often wheeled up to the dinner table to join the family for supper. And then, TV at the dinner table suddenly became bad manners. Back to the living room the TV went.

‘It never really caught on in most U.S. homes,’ said Lynn Spigel, a professor at the Northwestern University School of Communication and author of the book, Make Room for TV. ‘At one point, a company even tried to invent a contraption called the TV Stove, which was both a TV and a stove,’ she said.

So are smartphones having their TV-in-the-kitchen moment?”

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The opening of “An Embryonic Idea,” an Economist article about the creation of “organoids,” which resemble human brains in numerous ways:

“REGENERATIVE medicine, the science of producing tissues and organs from stem cells, is a rapidly developing field. This week, however, it took a leap forward that was big even by its own demanding standards. A team of researchers led by Madeline Lancaster of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, in Vienna, announced that they have grown things which, while not human brains, resemble brains in important ways.

Dr Lancaster’s organoids, as she calls them, are a far cry from the brains in jars beloved of the writers of horror movies. But they do contain several recognisably different types of nerve cell and have anatomical features which look like those of real brains. They might be used to study, in ways that would be unethical in a living human being or impossible even in a mouse, the crucial early stages of brain development, and how they can go wrong. They could be employed to test drugs in ways that mere cell cultures cannot be. And because they can be made, if needed, from the cells of living people, they might even illuminate the particular problems of individual patients.”

I’m a vegetarian, and I think you know I believe children shouldn’t be admitted to fast-food restaurants any more than they are bars. But I don’t have any ethical objections to lab-grown meat. I wouldn’t eat it because it’s still meat which I think is still unhealthy, but I suppose if it were ultimately made in such way as to be healthy, I would probably have it. Why not? The opening of “The Vegan Carnivore?” Julian Baggini’s new Aeon essay:

“The chef Richard McGeown has faced bigger culinary challenges in his distinguished career than frying a meat patty in a little sunflower oil and butter. But this time the eyes and cameras of hundreds of journalists in the room were fixed on the 5oz (140g) pink disc sizzling in his pan, one that had been five years and €250,000 in the making. This was the world’s first proper portion of cultured meat, a beef burger created by Mark Post, professor of physiology, and his team at Maastricht University in the Netherlands.

Post (which rhymes with ‘lost,’ not ‘ghost’) has been working on in vitro meat (IVM) since 2009. On 5 August this year he presented his cultured beef burger to the world as a ‘proof of concept’. Having shown that the technology works, Post believes that in a decade or so we could see commercial production of meat that has been grown in a lab rather than reared and slaughtered. The comforting illusion that supermarket trays of plastic-wrapped steaks are not pieces of dead animal might become a discomforting reality.

The IVM technique starts with a harmless procedure to remove myosatellite cells — stem cells that can only become muscle cells — from a live cow’s shoulder. They are then placed in a nutrient solution to create muscle tissue, which in turn forms tiny muscle fibres. Post’s burger contained 40 billion such cells, arranged in 20,000 muscle fibres. Add a few breadcrumbs and egg powder as binders, plus some beetroot juice and saffron to give it a redder colour, and you have your burger. I was at the suitably theatrical setting of the Riverside Studios in west London to see the synthetic burger unveiled. The TV presenter Nina Hossain was hired to provide a dose of professionalism and glamour to what was in effect a live TV show, filmed by a substantial crew for instantaneous webcast.

When the lights dimmed, images of gulls flying over gentle sea waves were projected onto two screens by the sides of the stage. Over some sparse, slow, rising guitar chords, Sergey Brin, the co-founder of Google and a donor of €700,000 to Post’s research, uttered the portentous words: ‘Sometimes a new technology comes along and it has the capability to transform how we view our world.’ He was right. Never before has a human eaten meat without harming or killing an animal. But in a strange way the slick presentation detracted from the truly historic nature of the moment. A scientific landmark was sold to us in the manner of a glitzy product launch, a piece of corporate puff.

What was most striking to me was how the presentation led, not with science, but with ethics.”

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Here’s a question worth asking: Why do we get outraged over the unfairness of athletes using PEDs to become superior but have no problem with some competitors having ridiculous genetic advantages? We cheat and so does nature. It’s not something that exists only in racehorses but in people as well. Doesn’t this have something to do with the quaint notion of humans not upsetting God or else, I don’t know, lighting bolts will be thrown from the sky? The opening of “Man and Superman,” Malcolm Gladwell’s New Yorker piece which begins with an example from David Epstein’s book, The Sports Gene:

“Toward the end of The Sports Gene (Penguin/Current), David Epstein makes his way to a remote corner of Finland to visit a man named Eero Mäntyranta. Mäntyranta lives in a small house next to a lake, among the pine and spruce trees north of the Arctic Circle. He is in his seventies. There is a statue of him in the nearby village. ‘Everything about him has a certain width to it,’ Epstein writes. ‘The bulbous nose in the middle of a softly rounded face. His thick fingers, broad jaw, and a barrel chest covered by a red knit sweater with a stern-faced reindeer across the middle. He is a remarkable-looking man.’ What’s most remarkable is the color of his face. It is a ‘shade of cardinal, mottled in places with purple,’ and evocative of ‘the hue of the red paint that comes from this region’s iron-rich soil.’

Mäntyranta carries a rare genetic mutation. His DNA has an anomaly that causes his bone marrow to overproduce red blood cells. That accounts for the color of his skin, and also for his extraordinary career as a competitive cross-country skier. In cross-country skiing, athletes propel themselves over distances of ten and twenty miles—a physical challenge that places intense demands on the ability of their red blood cells to deliver oxygen to their muscles. Mäntyranta, by virtue of his unique physiology, had something like sixty-five per cent more red blood cells than the normal adult male. In the 1960, 1964, and 1968 Winter Olympic Games, he won a total of seven medals—three golds, two silvers, and two bronzes—and in the same period he also won two world-championship victories in the thirty-kilometre race. In the 1964 Olympics, he beat his closest competitor in the fifteen-kilometre race by forty seconds, a margin of victory, Epstein says, ‘never equaled in that event at the Olympics before or since.’

In The Sports Gene, there are countless tales like this, examples of all the ways that the greatest athletes are different from the rest of us. They respond more effectively to training. The shape of their bodies is optimized for certain kinds of athletic activities. They carry genes that put them far ahead of ordinary athletes.”

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“The electricity was turned on, and it numbed the legs beneath the knees as much as cocaine would.”

Electricity as an elixir and sleep-inducer was the life’s work of a pioneering European doctor named Louise E. Rabinovitch. Her experiments were profiled in the January 26, 1910 issue of the New York Times. The story:

Hartford, Conn.–Electricity as an anaesthetic was used with success in an operation at St. Francis’s Hospital to-day. The electricity was applied by Dr. Louise E. Rabinovitch of Paris, who lectured last night before the physicians of this city on the possibility of rescuing personas who had supposedly been killed by electricity, especially those subjected to the current in the electric chair. While a patient was being subjected to the electrical current by Dr. Rabinovitch four toes were amputated by Dr. Marcus M. Johnson, and the man felt no pain.

The name of the patient is not disclosed by the surgeons concerned. They stated only that his toes were frozen as a result of exposure in the recent storm and he has been at St. Francis’s Hospital for several days. He was told that it would be necessary to amputate four toes. He consented to the operation, but said he did not want to take ether. Dr. Rabinowitz was told of the case last night and suggested electricity as an anaesthetic. The patient agreed to the plan to-day although he was told that it was novel to surgery and that the surgeons could not give him the slightest encouragement as to the outcome.

When the man had been made ready for the operation straps were fastened about his legs at points designated by Dr. Rabinovitch. On these straps were electrodes to which were attached wires connecting with a battery. The electricity was turned on, and it numbed the legs beneath the knees as much as cocaine would. The patient was blindfolded and the surgeons went to work. The toes were amputated and the patient soon was released from the electrical attachments.

He said that he had not felt the slightest sensation during the cutting and had not known when the surgeons were doing it. During the operation he talked with the attendants and laughed at jokes. Three toes of his left foot and the large toe of his right foot were amputated. 

Dr. Rabinovtich’s plan consists of sending an interrupted current of electricity through the affected part of the human body to be operated upon. No other part is affected by the fluid. A current of fifty-four volts was used in this instance, reduced by means of a commutator of one-tenth of that amount. The interruptions of the current were estimated at 20,000 a minute. The secret of the use of the device is in correctly applying the electrode to the nerve that controls the affected part.

Dr. Johnson said there were no bad after effects, and the patient suffered no pain. He declared that the feat marked an epoch in anaesthetic surgery, and that other forms of anaesthesia were likely to be entirely supplanted by Dr. Rabinovitch’s process. Dr. Rabinovitch was highly elated over the success of her device.

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Dr. Rabinovitch has been experimenting for some time with her theories of electric sleep at St. Anne’s Hospital in Paris, where the city fitted up a laboratory for her. She is a graduate of the Universities of Paris and Berlin. She has invented four electrical machines for various humanitarian purposes. She has successfully experimented on dogs, rabbits, and other animals which were apparently killed by electricity, and has succeeded in restoring animals in many demonstrations.”

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Boxing was once the champion of American sports, but when growing knowledge turned “punchy” into “brain damaged,” the talent pool dried up and the pastime became marginalized. Malcolm Gladwell has been predicting for a couple of years that the same downturn will befall football, a sport in which no amount of padding can stop concussions. He repeats those sentiments in the new documentary, The United States of Football. From Fox Sports:

“Author Malcolm Gladwell has been a voice in the concussion fray before, calling schools to ban college football and saying he wouldn’t be surprised if football at all levels fades from existence once people realize how damaging it can be long-term for players with head injuries.

But in a new documentary, Gladwell offers a less extreme — and possibly more likely — scenario for what will happen to the game. Gladwell says football will be a game that capitalizes on those poor or desperate enough to take the risk.

‘We will go to a middle position where we will disclose the risks and essentially dare people to play,’ Gladwell said in the film, which comes out Friday, as reported by CBSSports.com. ‘… That’s what the Army does. So we leave the Army for kids who have no other options, for whom the risks are acceptable. That’s what football is going to become. It’s going to become the Army. That’s a very, very different situation.

‘That’s a ghettoized sport, not a mainstream American sport.'”

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In “Parallel Worlds,” Andrew Crumey’s Aeon essay about the implications for accepted knowledge if there was proof of the Multiverse, he traces the deep roots of the idea of infinite outcomes. An excerpt:

“Where did this idea of parallel universes come from? Science fiction is an obvious source: in the 1960s, Captain Kirk met his ‘other self’ in a Star Trek episode called ‘Mirror, Mirror’, while Philip K Dick’s novel The Man in the High Castle (1963) imagined an alternate world in which the US was a Nazi puppet state. Since then, the idea has become mainstream, providing the image of forking paths in the romantic comedy Sliding Doors (1998), and the spine-chilling ‘What if?’ in Philip Roth’s novel The Plot Against America (2004), which envisaged the anti-Semitic aviator Charles Lindbergh defeating Roosevelt in 1940. But there’s also science fact. In 1935, Erwin Schrödinger proposed his famous thought experiment involving a cat in a box whose life or death is connected to a quantum event, and in 1957 the American physicist Hugh Everett developed his ‘many worlds’ theory, which proposed that the act of opening Schrödinger’s box entailed a splitting of universes: one where the cat is alive, and another where it is dead.

Recently, physicists have been boldly endorsing a ‘multiverse’ of possible worlds. Richard Feynman, for example, said that when light goes from A to B it takes every possible path, but the one we see is the quickest because all the others cancel out. In The Universe in a Nutshell (2001), Stephen Hawking went with a sporting multiverse, declaring it ‘scientific fact’ that there exists a parallel universe in which Belize won every gold medal at the Olympic Games. For Hawking, the universe is a kind of ‘cosmic casino’ whose dice rolls lead to widely divergent paths: we see one, but all are real.

Surprisingly, however, the idea of parallel universes is far older than any of these references, cropping up in philosophy and literature since ancient times. Even the word ‘multiverse’ has vintage. In a journal paper dating from 1895, William James referred to a ‘multiverse of experience’, while in his English Roses collection of 1899, the poet Frederick Orde Ward gave the term a spiritual cast: ‘Within, without, nowhere and everywhere;/Now bedrock of the mighty Multiverse…’

At the far reaches of this hidden history is Democritus, who believed the universe to be made of atoms moving in an infinite void. Over time, they would combine and recombine in every possible way: the world we see around us is just one arrangement among many that are all certain to appear.”

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The opening of “Reversing Sinclair’s Amazing 1974 Calculator Hack,” Ken Shirriff’s fun (if somewhat technical) blog post which explains how Clive Sinclair re-engineered a calculator in the 1970s and made something far better and cheaper:

“In a hotel room in Texas, Clive Sinclair had a big problem. He wanted to sell a cheap scientific calculator that would grab the market from expensive calculators such as the popular HP-35. Hewlett-Packard had taken two years, 20 engineers, and a million dollars to design the HP-35, which used 5 complex chips and sold for $395. Sinclair’s partnership with calculator manufacturer Bowmar had gone nowhere. Now Texas Instruments offered him an inexpensive calculator chip that could barely do four-function math. Could he use this chip to build a $100 scientific calculator?

Texas Instruments’ engineers said this was impossible – their chip only had 3 storage registers, no subroutine calls, and no storage for constants such as π. The ROM storage in the calculator held only 320 instructions, just enough for basic arithmetic. How could they possibly squeeze any scientific functions into this chip?

Fortunately Clive Sinclair, head of Sinclair Radionics, had a secret weapon – programming whiz and math PhD Nigel Searle. In a few days in Texas, they came up with new algorithms and wrote the code for the world’s first single-chip scientific calculator, somehow programming sine, cosine, tangent, arcsine, arccos, arctan, log, and exponentiation into the chip. The engineers at Texas Instruments were amazed.”

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The opening of “The Insane and Exciting Future of the Bionic Body,” Geoff Brumfiel’s Smithsonian article about next-wave prosthetics:

“Bertolt Meyer pulls off his left forearm and gives it to me. It’s smooth and black, and the hand has a clear silicone cover, like an iPhone case. Beneath the rubbery skin are skeletal robotic fingers of the sort you might see in a sci-fi movie—the ‘cool factor,’ Meyer calls it.

I hold the arm in my hand. ‘It’s pretty light,’ I say. ‘Yes, only a couple of pounds,’ he responds.

I try not to stare at the stump where his arm should be. Meyer explains how his prosthetic limb works. The device is held on by suction. A silicone sheath on the stump helps create a tight seal around the limb. ‘It needs to be comfortable and snug at the same time,’ he says.

‘Can I touch it?’ I ask. ‘Go ahead,’ he says. I run my hand along the sticky silicone and it helps dispel my unease—the stump may look strange, but the arm feels strong and healthy.

Meyer, 33, is slightly built and has dark features and a friendly face. A native of Hamburg, Germany, currently living in Switzerland, he was born with only an inch or so of arm below the left elbow. He has worn a prosthetic limb on and off since he was 3 months old. The first one was passive, just to get his young mind accustomed to having something foreign attached to his body. When he was 5 years old, he got a hook, which he controlled with a harness across his shoulders. He didn’t wear it much, until he joined the Boy Scouts when he was 12. ‘The downside is that it is extremely uncomfortable because you’re always wearing the harness,’ he says.

This latest iteration is a bionic hand, with each finger driven by its own motor. Inside of the molded forearm are two electrodes that respond to muscular signals in the residual limb: Sending a signal to one electrode opens the hand and to the other closes it. Activating both allows Meyer to rotate the wrist an unnerving 360 degrees. ‘The metaphor that I use for this is learning how to parallel park your car,’ he says as he opens his hand with a whir. At first, it’s a little tricky, but you get the hang of it.

Touch Bionics, the maker of this mechanical wonder, calls it the i-limb.

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“It looks like Terminator…it looks futuristic”:

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In “Paper Versus Pixel,” Nicholas Carr’s excellent new Nautilus essay, he argues that print won’t be disappeared by 0s and 1s. The opening:

“Gutenberg we know. But what of the eunuch Cai Lun?

A well-educated, studious young man, a close aide to the Emperor Hedi in the Chinese imperial court of the Eastern Han Dynasty, Cai invented paper one fateful day in the year 105 A.D. At the time, writing and drawing were done primarily on silk, which was elegant but expensive, or on bamboo, which was sturdy but cumbersome. Seeking a more practical alternative, Cai came up with the idea of mashing bits of tree bark and hemp fiber together in a little water, pounding the resulting paste flat with a stone mortar, and then letting it dry into sheets in the sun. The experiment was a success. Allowing for a few industrial tweaks, Cai’s method is still pretty much the way paper gets made today.

Cai killed himself some years later, having become entangled in a palace scandal from which he saw no exit. But his invention took on a life of its own. The craft of papermaking spread quickly throughout China and then, following the Silk Road westward, made its way into Persia, Arabia, and Europe. Within a few centuries, paper had replaced animal skins, papyrus mats, and wooden tablets as the world’s preferred medium for writing and reading. The goldsmith Gutenberg would, with his creation of the printing press around 1450, mechanize the work of the scribe, replacing inky fingers with inky machines, but it was Cai Lun who gave us our reading material and, some would say, our world.

Paper may be the single most versatile invention in history, its uses extending from the artistic to the bureaucratic to the hygienic. Rarely, though, do we give it its due. The ubiquity and disposability of the stuff—the average American goes through a quarter ton of it every year—lead us to take it for granted, or even to resent it. It’s hard to respect something that you’re forever throwing in the trash or flushing down the john or blowing your nose into. But modern life is inconceivable without paper. If paper were to disappear, writes Ian Sansom in his recent book Paper: An Elegy, ‘Everything would be lost.’

But wait. ‘An elegy’? Sansom’s subtitle is half joking, but it’s also half serious. For while paper will be around as long as we’re around, with the digital computer we have at last come up with an invention to rival Cai Lun’s.” (Thanks Browser.)

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In Tyler Cowen’s smart New York Times editorial “Who Will Prosper in the New World,” the economist tries to identify the victors and the victims in a highly automated society. In one passage that I don’t excerpt, he suggests that the studious who take advantage of online learning will do best, but some of the most studious people I know are struggling the most right now. And I wonder if an ageist culture like ours will respond to older folks who continue to educate themselves. We’ll see. Here’s an excerpt about some of those he believes Big Data will diminish:

“Who will be most likely to suffer from this technological revolution?

PEOPLE WITH DELICATE FEELINGS Computing and software will make it easier to measure performance and productivity.

It will be harder to gloss over our failings and maintain self-deception. In essence everyone will suffer the fate of professional chess players, who always know when they have lost a game, have an exact numerical rating for their overall performance, and find excuses for failure hard to come by.

Individuals will have many measures of their proficiency. They will have an incentive to disclose that information to get the better job or social opportunity. You’ll assume the worst about those who keep secrets, and so openness will reign. Many of us will start to hate the idea of Big Data.

PEOPLE UNLUCKY IN HEALTH CARE Quality surgery and cancer treatment cannot be automated very easily. They will be highly expensive, and unlucky health breaks will be all the more tragic because not everyone will be able to afford the best treatments.

With marvelous diagnosis available online, some people will get the right treatments early on, whereas others will know exactly what they are dying from.”

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As the telephone first became popular in America, rural communities were often left behind. The expense of putting up lines that would serve so few just wasn’t cost-effective initially, similar to the high-speed broadband problem today. So some farming villages formed collectives and put up their own lines and improvised mini-companies dotted the countryside. Some small Mexican villages are in a similar situation now with mobile. Carlos Slim seems to have forgotten them so they’ve created their own service, which is far cheaper than his. From Subodh Varmathe of the Times of India:

“After being ignored by a company owned by the world’s richest man Carlos Slim, a tiny Mexican village has developed its own mobile network with international connections. The local service costs 15 pesos ($1.2) per month-13 times cheaper than a big firm’s basic plan in Mexico City, AFP reports.

The village of Villa Talea de Castro, dotted with small pink and yellow homes, has a population of 2,500 indigenous people. Tucked away in a lush forest in the southern state of Oaxaca, it was not seen as a profitable market for companies such as Slim’s America Movil. The company wanted at least 10,000 subscribers to bring the village into its mobile coverage, AFP said.

So the village, under an initiative launched by indigenous groups, civil organizations and universities, put up an antenna on a rooftop, installed radio and computer equipment, and created its own micro provider called Red Celular de Talea (RCT) this year.

Calls to the United States, where many of the indigenous Zapoteco resident have migrated, charge a few pennies per minute.”

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A report from a 1990s Tomorrow’s World about the advent of neuromarketing. Everyone in the piece is far too chipper about this development.

The oppressive cable-television industry makes wonderful Netflix possible, as Derek Thompson points out in an Atlantic post. An excerpt:

“The 100 million households paying for cable are subsidizing the entertainment on Netflix. This subsidy allows Netflix to charge an affordable-enough monthly rate so that they can attract a truly mass audience. Just about everything that you love about Netflix (its affordability, its variety, its ability to take risks) is made possible because of just about everything you hate about cable, whose high cost and refusal to offer a la carte creates high margins for entertainment companies, who auction the scraps to Netflix, Amazon and other Internet video companies.

The instinct among some tech writers to implicitly root for Netflix over the traditional cable industry is understandable. Netflix is cheap and easy to use. Cable is expensive and remote controls are terrible. Netflix’s affordability and its willingness to take risks are both made possible by the same traditional TV business they’re threatening.”

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Following up on this week’s post about Google perhaps getting into the driverless-taxi business, here’s the opening of a Matthew Yglesias Slate piece warning that regulation might stymie the emergence of this autonomous sector:

“Google’s eye-popping $258 million investment in the car-hailing app company Uber made headlines last week. It’s the search giant’s biggest-ever venture capital investment, and it gives a much-discussed but rather small-scale company a delirious $3.5 billion valuation. But so far, the commentary on the deal—which has been mostly focused on bubble speculation and startup mania—has missed the real story.

Google’s interest in Uber is likely connected to their ongoing investments in driverless or autonomous cars, and it shows that the potential of this technology is much greater than is commonly realized. By the same token, however, the stakes in ongoing regulatory battles between tech startups and taxi regulators are higher than most people know. This is not just the future of yuppies getting a ride home from the bar. It’s a set of issues that has the potential to radically remake the American landscape.

But to get there, regulators would have to want cheaper and better taxi service. Current trends make it unclear that they do.”

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Daniel Kahneman has taught us that people who feel observed behave more morally. Further proof: An excerpt from “Surveillance Changes Behavior,” Steve Lohr’s New York Times article about the shift in employee behavior when bars and restaurants watch them via monitoring software:

“Most of the restaurant industry pays its servers low wages and they depend on tips. Employee turnover is high. In that environment, a certain amount of theft has long been regarded as a normal part of the business.

Unethical behavior runs the gamut. There is even a how-to book on the subject, published in 2004, How To Burn Down the House: The Infamous Waiter and Bartender’s Scam Bible by Two Bourbon Street Waiters. A simple example is a bartender’s not charging for a round of drinks, and urging the customers to ‘take care of me’ — with a large tip. Other tactics are more elaborate.

But monitoring software is now available to track all transactions and detect suspicious patterns. In the new study, the tracking software was NCR’s Restaurant Guard product, and NCR provided the data. The software is intentionally set so that a restaurant manager gets only an electronic theft alert in cases that seem to clearly be misconduct. Otherwise, a manager might be mired in time-consuming detective work instead of running the restaurant.

The savings from the theft alerts themselves were modest, $108 a week per restaurant. However, after installing the monitoring software, the revenue per restaurant increased by an average of $2,982 a week, or about 7 percent.

The impact, the researchers say, came not from firing workers engaged in theft, but mostly from their changed behavior. Knowing they were being monitored, the servers not only pulled back on any unethical practices, but also channeled their efforts into, say, prompting customers to have that dessert or a second beer, raising revenue for the restaurant and tips for themselves.”

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Frank Lloyd Wright, on Omnibus with Alistair Cooke in the 1950sbeing spectacularly wrong on several topics: skyscrapers in cities, population concentration and the future of urbanism.

Below is the opening of Isaac Asimov’s classic NYT report about the 1964 New York World’s Fair. He was certainly right that we would continue to withdraw, but the palace of retreat was the inside of our heads and not an underground home. The excerpt:

The New York World’s Fair of 1964 is dedicated to “Peace Through Understanding.” Its glimpses of the world of tomorrow rule out thermonuclear warfare. And why not? If a thermonuclear war takes place, the future will not be worth discussing. So let the missiles slumber eternally on their pads and let us observe what may come in the nonatomized world of the future.

What is to come, through the fair’s eyes at least, is wonderful. The direction in which man is traveling is viewed with buoyant hope, nowhere more so than at the General Electric pavilion. There the audience whirls through four scenes, each populated by cheerful, lifelike dummies that move and talk with a facility that, inside of a minute and a half, convinces you they are alive.

The scenes, set in or about 1900, 1920, 1940 and 1960, show the advances of electrical appliances and the changes they are bringing to living. I enjoyed it hugely and only regretted that they had not carried the scenes into the future. What will life be like, say, in 2014 A.D., 50 years from now? What will the World’s Fair of 2014 be like?

I don’t know, but I can guess.

One thought that occurs to me is that men will continue to withdraw from nature in order to create an environment that will suit them better. By 2014, electroluminescent panels will be in common use. Ceilings and walls will glow softly, and in a variety of colors that will change at the touch of a push button.

Windows need be no more than an archaic touch, and even when present will be polarized to block out the harsh sunlight. The degree of opacity of the glass may even be made to alter automatically in accordance with the intensity of the light falling upon it.

There is an underground house at the fair which is a sign of the future. if its windows are not polarized, they can nevertheless alter the ‘scenery’ by changes in lighting. Suburban houses underground, with easily controlled temperature, free from the vicissitudes of weather, with air cleaned and light controlled, should be fairly common.•

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There is occasionally the shock of the new within a culture, but usually the future arrives wearing the clothes of the past. On that topic: In the epic 1965 Life magazine science special I blogged about yesterday, there is a section titled, “Will Man Direct His Own Evolution?” which is a fun but seriously overwrought essay by Albert Rosenfeld about the nature of identity in a time when humans are made by design, made of temporary parts. Like a lot of things written in the ’60s about science and society, it’s informed by an undercurrent of anxiety about changes beginning to affect the nuclear family. An excerpt:

“Even you and I–in 1965, already here and beyond the reach of potential modification–could live to face curious and unfamiliar problems in identity as a result of man’s increasing ability to control his own mortality after birth. As organ transplants and artificial body parts become even more available it is not totally absurd to envision any one of us walking around one day with, say, a plastic cornea, a few metal bones and Dacron arteries, with donated glands, kidney and liver from some other person, from an animal, from an organ bank, or even an assembly line, with an artificial heart, and computerized electronic devices to substitute for muscular, neural or metabolic functions that may have gone wrong. It has been suggested–though it will almost certainly not happen in our lifetime–that brains, too, might be replaceable, either by a brain transplanted from someone else, by a new one grown in tissue culture, or an electronic or mechanical one of some sort. ‘What,’ asks Dr. Lederberg, ‘is the moral, legal or psychiatric identity of an artificial chimera?’

Dr. Seymour Kety, an outstanding psychiatric authority now with the National Institute of Health, points out that fairly radical personality changes already have been wrought by existing techniques like brainwashing, electroshock therapy and prefrontal lobotomy, without raising serious questions of identity. But would it be the same if alien parts and substances were substituted for the person’s own, resulting in a new biochemistry and a new personality with new tastes, new talents, new political views–perhaps even a different memory of different experiences? Might such a man’s wife decide she no longer recognized him as her husband and that he was, in fact, not? Or might he decide that his old home, job and family situation were not to his liking and feel free to chuck the whole setup that have been quite congenial to the old person?

Not that acute problems of identity need await the day when wholesale replacement of vital organs is a reality. Very small changes in the brain could result in astounding metamorphoses. Scientists who specialize in the electrical probing of the human brain have, in the past few years, been exploring a small segment of the brain’s limbic system called the amygdala–and discovering that it is the seat of many of our basic passions and drives, including the drives that lead to uncontrollable sexual extremes such as satyriasis and nymphomania. 

Suppose, at a time that may be surprisingly near at hand, the police were to trap Mr. X, a vicious rapist whose crimes had terrorized the women of a neighborhood for months. Instead of packing him off to jail, they send him in for brain surgery. The surgeon delicately readjusts the distorted amygdala, and the patient turns into a gentle soul with a sweet, loving disposition. He is clearly a stranger to the man who was wheeled into the operating room. Is he the same man, really? Is he responsible for the crimes that he–or that other person–committed? Can he be punished? Should he go free?

As time goes on, it may be necessary to declare, without the occurrence of death, that Mr. X has ceased to exist and that Mr. Y has begun to be. This would be a metaphorical kind of death and rebirth, but quite real psychologically–and thus, perhaps, legally.”

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Google is (perhaps) planning on designing its own car to demonstrate its autonomous automobile software to other manufacturers. From Kevin Fitchard at Gigaom:

“Google is weighing building its own line of self-driving cars independent of the automakers, according to a new report by Amir Efrati on JessicaLessin.com. Efrati doesn’t name his sources, but he’s a veteran Google reporter formerly of the Wall Street Journal so I have little reason to doubt them. But it does raise an interesting question: Can a tech company — even one with the resources and innovation drive of Google — build an automobile from scratch?

First the details of the report: Efrati’s sources said Google is making no headway with the entrenched automakers over partnerships to build self-driving vehicles. So it’s opted to go around them, talking to auto-components designers Continental and Magna International about having them build cars to Google’s design. (German paper Frankfurter Allgemeine also reported Continental has struck a deal with both Google and IBM.)

Efrati’s report added that Google might use these cars as part of a ‘robo-taxi’ service that prowls cities picking up passengers on demand.”

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“Cars with no steering wheels,” 1950s:

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