Excerpts

You are currently browsing the archive for the Excerpts category.

Is the newspaper, that neat product, the anomaly, and the Internet, an ungovernable mess, the norm? From a recent speech by Guardian Deputy Editor Katharine Viner:

“The web has changed the way we organise information in a very clear way: from the boundaried, solid format of books and newspapers to something liquid and free-flowing, with limitless possibilities.

A newspaper is complete. It is finished, sure of itself, certain. By contrast, digital news is constantly updated, improved upon, changed, moved, developed, an ongoing conversation and collaboration. It is living, evolving, limitless, relentless.

Many believe that this move from fixed to fluid is not exactly new, and instead a return to the oral cultures of much earlier eras. Danish academic Thomas Pettitt’s theory is that the whole period after Gutenberg’s invention of the printing press – of moveable type, the text, the 500 years of print-dominated information, between the 15th and the 20th centuries – was just a pause; it was just an interruption in the usual flow of human communication. He calls this the Gutenberg Parenthesis. The web, says Pettitt, is returning us to a pre-Gutenberg state in which we are defined by oral traditions: flowing and ephemeral.

For 500 years, knowledge was contained, in a fixed format that you believed to be a reliable version of the truth; now, moving to the post-print era, we are returning to an age when you’re as likely to hear information, right or wrong, from people you come across. Pettitt says that the way we think now is reminiscent of a medieval peasant, based on gossip, rumour and conversation. ‘The new world is in some ways the old world, the world before print’ he says.”

Tags: ,

From Nate Silver’s new Grantland piece, “The Six Big Takeaways From the Government Shutdown,” an explanation of why it’s unlikely that this failing Republican gambit will cost the GOP control of Congress in 2014:

Democrats face extremely unfavorable conditions in trying to regain the House.

Even if the shutdown were to have a moderate political impact — and one that favored the Democrats in races for Congress — it might not be enough for them to regain control of the U.S. House. Instead, Democrats face two major headwinds as they seek to win back Congress.

First, there are extremely few swing districts — only one-half to one-third as many as when the last government shutdown occurred in 1996. Some of this is because of partisan gerrymandering, but more of it is because of increasingly sharp ideological divides along geographic lines: between urban and rural areas, between the North and the South, and between the coasts and the interior of the United States.

So even if Democrats make significant gains in the number of votes they receive for the House, they would flip relatively few seats because of the way those votes are distributed. Most of the additional votes would come in districts that Democrats were already assured of winning, or where they were too far behind to catch up.

Consider that, between 2010 and 2012, Democrats went from losing the average congressional district by seven percentage points to winning it by one percentage point — an eight-point swing. And yet they added only eight seats in the House, out of 435 congressional districts.

In 2014, likewise, it will require not just a pretty good year for Democrats, but a wave election for them to regain the House. But wave elections in favor of the party that controls the White House are essentially unprecedented in midterm years.”

Tags:

The opening of “Is Your Coffee Too Cheap?” a Spiegel article by Frank Thadeusz about “neuro pricing,” in which consumer brainwaves are studied to determine what the market will bear:

The most subversive criticism of capitalism at the moment comes from the small town of Aspach, in the Swabian-Franconian Forest, a region of southern Germany known for its industrious and energetic inhabitants. Kai-Markus Müller is sitting in his office in a nondescript building, thinking about the coffee-roasting company Starbucks. ‘Everyone thinks that they’ve truly figured out how to sell a relatively inexpensive product for a lot of money,’ he says. ‘But the odd thing is that even this company doesn’t understand it.’

Müller, a neurobiologist, isn’t criticizing working conditions at the multinational purveyor of hot beverages. Instead, what he means is that the Seattle-based company gives away millions of dollars a year out of pure ignorance. The reason? Starbucks isn’t charging enough for its coffee.

It’s an almost obscene observation. Müller is convinced that customers would in fact be willing to dig even more deeply into their pockets for products for which Starbucks already charges upmarket prices.

Classic Market Research Doesn’t Work Correctly

The brain researcher is also a sales professional. Müller used to work for Simon, Kucher and Partners, a leading international consulting firm that helps companies find suitable prices for their products. But he soon lost interest in the job when he recognized that ‘classic market research doesn’t work correctly.’ From the scientist’s perspective, research subjects have only limited credibility when they are asked to honestly state how much money they would spend for a product.

Instead, Müller is searching for ‘neuronal mechanisms,’ deeply buried in the human brain, ‘that we can’t just deliberately switch off.'”

Tags: ,

Sadly, Scott Carpenter, one of the original seven American astronauts, just passed away. The first spaceman to eat solid food in flight and the one who uttered the words, “Godspeed, John Glenn,” Carpenter flew his last mission in 1962, piloting the Mercury-Atlas 7, which nearly killed him. Troubles during orbit intensified during re-entry causing his rocket to significantly overshoot its water landing, leaving him adrift and alone for nearly an hour. His first wife, Rene–Carpenter married four times–penned an article, “55 Minutes That Lasted Forever,” for the June 1, 1962 Life magazine about the close call. The opening:

“As Scott passed Hawaii on his third orbit, all of us in the beach house at Cape Canaveral gathered on the footstools and bamboo chairs in front of the television set. The flight had been a long one, and after what had been such a perfect start, so many things seemed to be giving Scott trouble. I wanted him down.

When he started re-entry, the boys pretended they were retro-rockets firing and thumped each other’s chairs with their tennis shoes. I scolded them. My own tension was growing. 

Scott was in touch with Cape Canaveral briefly, but then we were in that suffocating quiet of the ionization period where no radio contact was possible. The seconds ticked off as we waited for the report that he had broken through. The report did not come. The time grew too long, and we all knew it. The children were no longer oblivious to the drama. The little girls, their sensitive feelers out, knew that the boys no longer wanted to fool. Candy climbed up on my lap, and Kris said, ‘Well, he’s almost on the carrier now.’ Scotty tried for wisecracks, which fell thud. Jay’s head sank low on his chest–so much like his dad, with his quiet exterior and his imagination running riot inside.

We heard Scott would overshoot his planned landing point by 200 miles, but there was still no word from him. I was maddened by the gloomy speculation coming, as the announcer said, ‘from an unofficial source.’ that the radar had tracked nothing/ The assumption was that there was nothing to track. 

It would be a long wait–but we had all been waiting a long time.”

Tags: ,

The New Yorker has done a fair share of excellent technology reporting in its history, but in that category you can’t include mocking commentary about computers in general and computer chess in particular by Jacob R. Brackman in the June 11, 1966 issue. An excerpt from the piece (paywalled here):

“It stands to reason that before any mileage of wires and tubes occupies our desk and sends us scurrying off to ‘retrain for tomorrow’s jobs’ (whatever they may be) it will have mastered at least the intellectual activity characteristic of children and, in some cases, animals–playing games, recognizing patterns, solving easy problems, reading sentences. With the help of the press, a few noisy researchers in the field of artificial intelligence have fostered the impression that such modest feats can indeed be performed by machines today. A wellspring of this scientific mythology seems to be a historic talk delivered in 1957 by H.A. Simon, one of the the grandfathers of artificial intelligence. ‘It is not my aim to surprise or shock you–if, indeed, that were possible in an age of nuclear fission and prospective interplanetary travel,’ Mr. Simon said. ‘But the simplest way I can summarize is to say that there are now in the world machines that think, that learn, and that create. Moreover, their ability to do these things is going to increase rapidly until–in a visible future–the range of problems they can handle will be co-extensive with the range to which the human mind has been applied.’ Mr. Simon went on to predict that within ten years a digital computer would (a) win the chess championship of the world (unless barred, by rule, from competition), (b) discover and prove an important new mathematical theorem, (c) write music praised by critics, and (d) programmatically express most theories in psychology.

Well, we’ve just come across a lovely paper by Hubert L. Dreyfus, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, which says computers can’t, and won’t. With Mr. Simon’s decade almost up, we learn, a recurrent pattern has plagued artificial intelligence in every field it tackles: dramatic early success followed by unforeseen problems and then by disenchantment. In game playing, for instance, researchers developed a checkers program, about ten years ago, that was able to beat an ex-champion from Connecticut. In chess, however, where the number of possible moves and responses is so much greater, computer programs bogged down in the problem of exponential growth. A computer’s attention cannot be attracted by areas on the board that look interesting. It cannot zero in on possibilities that appeal to a sort of ‘fringe consciousness.’ It can only count out alternative moves on an ever-branching tree of possibilities. At about the time of Mr. Simon’s grand prognostication, a group at Los Alamos devised a chess program that played an inferior, though legal, game on a reduced board. Ever since that program beat one weak opponent, the forecasts of impending master play have grown increasingly emphatic, but no computer developed in the intervening years has failed to play a stupid game. A highly publicized program, in its latest recorded bout, was defeated in thirty-five moves by a ten-year-old novice. Yet the projected world championship is only a year off.”

Tags: , , ,

Tesla CTO JB Straubel isn’t without obvious bias, but he believes autonomous cars are inevitable and upon us. As he points out, auto-pilot isn’t new, just new to the highways. From Katie Fehrenbacher at Gigaom:

“Tesla has been investing a quite of bit of time into the technology and has been hiring ‘a large team,’ said Straubel. Tesla has long maintained that it is trying to push the envelope of car technology, beyond just electrifying vehicles. The company has built bleeding edge tech features into its second-gen car the Model S like voice recognition, large in vehicle dashboards, and remote over-the-air software updates.

While this type of autonomous vehicle technology might seem futuristic, it’s actually widely used in all other vehicles, said Straubel. The auto industry has just been particularly slow moving to adopt it. Vehicles like planes, ships, and space ships all use auto pilot for safety reasons, and Straubel said ‘They didn’t do it because the pilot was bored; they did it because of safety.'”

Tags: , ,

A couple of excerpts from a very entertaining New Republic interview that Laura Bennett conducted with literary agent Andrew Wylie, who disdains popular fiction, Amazon and most of the American public.

___________________________

Laura Bennett:

Do you feel as hostile toward Amazon as you used to?

Andrew Wylie:

I think that Napoleon was a terrific guy before he started crossing national borders. Over the course of time, his temperament changed, and his behavior was insensitive to the nations he occupied.

Through greed—which it sees differently, as technological development and efficiency for the customer and low price, all that—[Amazon] has walked itself into the position of thinking that it can thrive without the assistance of anyone else. That is megalomania. 

Laura Bennett:

That sounds different from the attitude you had in 2010.

Andrew Wylie:

I didn’t think that [in 2010] the publishing community had properly assessed—particularly in regard to its obligations to writers—what an equitable arrangement would look like. 

And I felt that publishers had made a huge mistake, because they were pressured by Apple and Amazon to make concessions that they shouldn’t have made.

These distribution issues come and go. It wasn’t so long ago that Barnes and Noble was this monster publishing leatherette classics, threatening to put backlists out of print. Amazon will go, and Apple will go, and it’ll all go.

I think we’d be fine if publishers just withdrew their product [from Amazon], frankly. If the terms are unsatisfactory, why continue to do business? You think you’re going to lose thirty percent of your business? Well, that’s OK, because you would have a thirty percent higher margin for seventy percent of your business. You have fewer fools reading your books and you get paid more by those who do. What’s wrong with that?

____________________________

Laura Bennett:

Are you really as relaxed about the future of the industry as you sound?

Andrew Wylie:

I am as calm as I’ve ever been in my life. I was concerned for a while. I think everything’s going to work out.

Laura Bennett:

What would you like to see happen?

Andrew Wylie:

The biggest single problem since 1980 has been that the publishing industry has been led by the nose by the retail sector. The industry analyzes its strategies as though it were Procter and Gamble. It’s Hermès. It’s selling to a bunch of effete, educated snobs who read. Not very many people read. Most of them drag their knuckles around and quarrel and make money. We’re selling books. It’s a tiny little business. It doesn’t have to be Walmartized.•

Tags: , ,

When Jane Fonda was interviewed by David Frost more than 40 years ago, she explained the goal of the actor–and of anyone trying to understand consciousness: “If you asked me what’s the one thing in the whole world I would like more than anything else, it’s for even fifty seconds to be able to–pow–be in someone’s head and just see the world through his eyes.” 

To that goal, I think we’re still wandering in the Dark Ages, though not everyone agrees. The opening of “The Mental Block,” Michael Hanlon’s Aeon essay about solving the “hard problem”:

“Over there is a bird, in silhouette, standing on a chimney top on the house opposite. It is evening; the sun set about an hour ago and now the sky is an angry, pink-grey, the blatting rain of an hour ago threatening to return. The bird, a crow, is proud (I anthropomorphise). He looks cocksure. If it’s not a he then I’m a Dutchman. He scans this way and that. From his vantage point he must be able to see Land’s End, the nearby ramparts of Cape Cornwall, perhaps the Scillies in the fading light.

What is going on? What is it like to be that bird? Why look this way and that? Why be proud? How can a few ounces of protein, fat, bone and feathers be so sure of itself, as opposed to just being, which is what most matter does?

Old questions, but good ones. Rocks are not proud, stars are not nervous. Look further than my bird and you see a universe of rocks and gas, ice and vacuum. A multiverse, perhaps, of bewildering possibility. From the spatially average vantage point in our little cosmos you would barely, with human eyes alone, be able to see anything at all; perhaps only the grey smudge of a distant galaxy in a void of black ink. Most of what is is hardly there, let alone proud, strutting, cock-of-the-chimney-top on an unseasonably cold Cornish evening.

We live in an odd place and an odd time, amid things that know that they exist and that can reflect upon that, even in the dimmest, most birdlike way. And this needs more explaining than we are at present willing to give it. The question of how the brain produces the feeling of subjective experience, the so-called ‘hard problem.’ is a conundrum so intractable that one scientist I know refuses even to discuss it at the dinner table. Another, the British psychologist Stuart Sutherland, declared in 1989 that ‘nothing worth reading has been written on it’. For long periods, it is as if science gives up on the subject in disgust. But the hard problem is back in the news, and a growing number of scientists believe that they have consciousness, if not licked, then at least in their sights.”

Tags: , ,

In his appearance on EconTalk, Tyler Cowen said something that I really agree with: We already have our next great teaching tool, and it’s games. There’s no reason why students in a classroom setting can’t learn physics or mathematics or language through video games, if we can just get past our belief that learning most be painful. Of course, as Cowen pointed out, we also have to commit to games en masse since the production of popular ones is remarkably expensive. From a Yahoo! article about students repurposing their free iPads:

“You have to give school officials in Los Angeles credit for a good idea: put iPads in the hands of over 650,000 students to give them the most advanced learning tools available in an effort to boost their interest in academics.

But the $1 billion plan is taking some heat after students in the nation’s second-largest school district cracked the tablets’ security settings to forgo reading, writing and ‘rithmetic and instead post on Facebook and play games during class time.

‘They kind of should have known this would happen,’ said Maria Aguilera, a student at one of the schools where games briefly replaced academia. ‘We’re high school students after all. I mean, come on.’

The top game choices? Temple Run, Subway Surfing and an unnamed car racing game.”

Tags:

If you haven’t yet read the unfortunately titled “Bay Watched,” Nathan Heller’s excellent New Yorker article about the modern face of the Bay Area’s tech world, it’s definitely worth your time. The reporter looks at how entrepreneurs are keeping things on a micro level, upsetting the established venture-capital culture and competing with the public sector to provide basic services. In the latter category are start-ups like Lyft, which allows anyone to summon a taxi with a smartphone or to become a driver, and Leap, a private shuttle service which offers comfortable, wi-fi-enabled rides for three times the price of the city’s bus service. Of course, as we’ve seen with schools, privatization enacts a price on those who can’t afford to upgrade. An excerpt:

Leap, like Lyft, is an example of the helpful, Mr. Fix-It style of local techie culture. If a system isn’t working well, your neighborhood entrepreneur will build a better one. The approach has clear benefits for transportation, but it has risks, too. Say you’re a lawyer who rides the Muni bus. You hate it. It is overcrowded. It is always late. Fed up, you use your legal expertise to lobby an agency to get the route fixed. And the service gets better for all riders: the schoolkid, the homeless alcoholic, the elderly Chinese woman who speaks no English. None of them could have lobbied for a better bus on their own; your self-interested efforts have redounded to the collective benefit. Now the peeved lawyer can just take Leap. That is great for him. But it is less good for the elderly Chinese woman, who loses her civic advocate. Providing an escape valve for a system’s strongest users lessens the pressure for change.

[Leap co-founder Kyle] Kirchhoff saw things differently. Part of the reason the Muni bus was bad, he said, was that there was no market competition to make it better. ‘I think choice is a wonderful thing, and I think that competition is a good thing, too,’ he told me.”

Tags: ,

I’ve written many times that privacy as we used to define it is never coming back, not with the tools we now have at our disposal. However, I’m the silliest man in cyberspace. But the person labeled (much to his dismay) as the “most dangerous man in cyberspace,” the cybersecurity expert Jacob Appelbaum, feels similarly. Perhaps you’ll listen to him. The opening of a Vice interview with Appelbaum by John Lubbock:

Vice:

What would you say is the best way to understand the internet, rather than thinking of it as just ‘cyberspace’?

Jacob Appelbaum: 

There’s no real separation between the real world and the internet. What we’ve started to see is the militarization of that space. That isn’t to say that it just started to happen, just that we’ve started to see it in an incontrovertible, ‘Oh, the crazy paranoid people weren’t crazy and paranoid enough,’ sort of way. In the West, we see extreme control of the internet—the NSA/GCHQ stuff like the quantum insertion that Der Spiegel just covered… theTempora program. Really, these aren’t about controlling the internet, it’s about using the internet to control physical space and people in physical space. That is to say they’re using the internet as a gigantic surveillance machine. And because you can’t opt out of the machine anymore, it’s a problem.”

Tags: , ,

From “Glamour, Guns and Acts of God,” the Economist‘s look at the upcoming Texas gubernatorial battle likely to pit Republican favorite Greg Abbott, a gun-gripping, EPA-suing, wheelchair-bound Attorney General against State Senator and reproductive rights hero Wendy Davis:

“No Democrat has won statewide office in Texas since 1994—longer than in any other state. Texas has not backed a Democrat for the White House since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Democrats are desperate to change this. As the Texan population becomes less Anglo and more Hispanic, they think they have a chance. And in Ms Davis, they think they have a champion: one, moreover, whose struggle to keep abortion more widely available in Texas fits the Democratic narrative that Republicans are waging a ‘war on women”

The party ‘need[s] a face,’ says Harold Cook, a Democratic strategist, and Ms Davis is ‘incredibly charismatic.’ With her ‘national celebrity’ she can raise the $40m or so she will need to compete, Mr Cook predicts. He thinks she will appeal to suburban women who have long voted Republican for lack of a credible alternative; and some polls agree. Looking further ahead, some Democrats argue that if they can make Texas competitive, it will have national repercussions. ‘If we win Texas, it’ll be no contest for the White House,’ says Andy Brown, a Democrat running for local office in Travis County, which includes the city of Austin. Yet the smart money still says Ms Davis will lose, unless an independent Tea Party candidate enters the race, in which case all bets are off.”

Tags: , ,

Added to my list of interesting things that will likely never happen is engineer Ken Roy’s plan for a type of terraforming without actually changing a planet’s atmosphere. He wants to use “shells” to create enclosed cities–biospheres of a sort in outer space. From Miriam Kramer at Space.com:

“Roy’s terraforming vision hinges upon what he calls ‘shell worlds.’ Upon arrival at an ideal planet, humans would literally encase the alien world inside of a protective shell made from Kevlar, dirt and steel.

‘We have a central world. We put an atmosphere on it,’ Roy said. We can have the ‘composition, temperature, pressure of our choosing. Let’s assume we want ‘Earth-normal,’ and we put a shell around the central world to contain this atmosphere. The atmosphere then exists between the shell and the central world. The outer part of the shell is essentially a vacuum.’

While the planet’s gravity would remain unchanged, the rest of the world could be made very similar to Earth after importing vital materials,”

Tags: ,

One update to the Seymour Hersh comments which suggested that the bin Laden raid story wasn’t legit, which made it sound like the journalist believed the terrorist’s murder was a moon landing on a sound stage. Hersh has made it clear that he was not referring to the actual killing: The Guardian correction:

“Hersh has pointed out that he was in no way suggesting that Osama bin Laden was not killed in Pakistan, as reported, upon the president’s authority: he was saying that it was in the aftermath that the lying began.”

Tags: , ,

Just as good as Russ Roberts’ EconTalk episode with David Epstein is his recent show with economist Tyler Cowen, whose new book, Average Is Overlooks at life in a more-autonomous future. The guest sees the coming years being increasingly meritocratic, though with merit having shifted from those who are great to those who great at interfacing with machines. On that point is an exchange about freestyle chess, in which a human and computer team up to challenge another computer. Cowen points out that the best human players usually don’t fare too well in these competitions, and are often outdone by lesser players who are superior at knowing when to trust their non-human partner. Cowen guesses at future population distribution in the U.S. and how cities will change, and explains why he thinks income inequality is rising at the same time that crime rates are falling. He’s optimistic about life in 50-70 years, but believes the next few decades will be a painful mix of positives and negatives. 

I doubt we’ll ever really be a meritocracy. Even if we were, the idea that a small number of us, 15% or so, will flourish and have tremendous advantages and the rest will be second-class citizens with very nice toys and tools, just makes me sad. Even if it means that we’re wealthier in the aggregate, I still feel depressed about it. Beautiful cities where no poor people can afford to live doesn’t sound Utopian to me. Listen here.

Tags: ,

Craig Venter who says outlandish things and makes them seem possible–like here and here–thinks we’ll soon be able to print alien life forms. From the Telegraph:

“Dr Craig Venter, who helped map the human genome, created the world’s first synthetic lifeform, using chemicals and inserting DNA into the cell of a bacteria.

He believes scientists will soon be to do the same, designing basic organisms to include features useful in farming or medicine, as well as sending robots into space to read the sequence of alien life forms and replicate them back on Earth.

Writing in his latest book, Life at the Speed of Light: From the Double Helix to the Dawn of Digital Life, he says: “In years to come it will be increasingly possible to create a wide variety of [synthetic] cells from computer-designed software.'”

Tags:

Justice Antonin Scalia, who will be played by Paul Sorvino in the movie, is a little batshit and would likely have been wrong at key points in our nation’s history. He’s the oversharing subject of a fascinating interview by New York‘s Jennifer Senior. There is lots of Scalia’s brand of antique bigotry and even a discussion about the devil. An excerpt:

Jennifer Senior:

Can we talk about your drafting process—

Antonin Scalia:

[Leans in, stage-whispers.] I even believe in the Devil.

 Jennifer Senior:

You do?

Antonin Scalia:

Of course! Yeah, he’s a real person. Hey, c’mon, that’s standard Catholic doctrine! Every Catholic believes that.

 Jennifer Senior:

Every Catholic believes this? There’s a wide variety of Catholics out there …

Antonin Scalia:

If you are faithful to Catholic dogma, that is certainly a large part of it.

 Jennifer Senior:

Have you seen evidence of the Devil lately?

Antonin Scalia:

You know, it is curious. In the Gospels, the Devil is doing all sorts of things. He’s making pigs run off cliffs, he’s possessing people and whatnot. And that doesn’t happen very much anymore.

 Jennifer Senior:

No.

Antonin Scalia:

It’s because he’s smart.

 Jennifer Senior:

So what’s he doing now?

Antonin Scalia:

What he’s doing now is getting people not to believe in him or in God. He’s much more successful that way.

 Jennifer Senior:

That has really painful implications for atheists. Are you sure that’s the ­Devil’s work?

Antonin Scalia:

I didn’t say atheists are the Devil’s work.

 Jennifer Senior:

Well, you’re saying the Devil is ­persuading people to not believe in God. Couldn’t there be other reasons to not believe?

Antonin Scalia:

Well, there certainly can be other reasons. But it certainly favors the Devil’s desires. I mean, c’mon, that’s the explanation for why there’s not demonic possession all over the place. That always puzzled me. What happened to the Devil, you know? He used to be all over the place. He used to be all over the New Testament.

 Jennifer Senior:

Right.

Antonin Scalia:

What happened to him?

 Jennifer Senior:

He just got wilier.

Antonin Scalia:

He got wilier.

Jennifer Senior:

Isn’t it terribly frightening to believe in the Devil?

Antonin Scalia:

You’re looking at me as though I’m weird. My God! Are you so out of touch with most of America, most of which believes in the Devil? I mean, Jesus Christ believed in the Devil! It’s in the Gospels! You travel in circles that are so, so removed from mainstream America that you are appalled that anybody would believe in the Devil! Most of mankind has believed in the Devil, for all of history. Many more intelligent people than you or me have believed in the Devil.

Jennifer Senior:

I hope you weren’t sensing contempt from me. It wasn’t your belief that surprised me so much as how boldly you expressed it.

Antonin Scalia:

I was offended by that. I really was.•

Tags: ,

babepointing

Some things are immensely popular right before a steep decline, like cricket in America in 1900 or newspaper advertising in the 1990s. Just because you’re on top doesn’t mean you’re staying there. Baseball has never been more popular in America than it is now, as measured by ticket sales and television contracts, but something seems amiss. It’s no longer the national pastime; thanks to gambling, a taste for violence and a less-demanding schedule, the NFL reigns supreme. And there isn’t a star in baseball equal to Lebron James of the NBA. 

From the moment of the Nelson Doubleday hokum, the sport was always sold on a lie. Myths were built, and that was unsustainable. It was never a rustic sport nor a clean one, but it was protected as such because it was considered too important to the national psyche. It was the present being sold as nostalgia, and that can’t work in a world of decentralized media. 

But even before the PED scandals of the ’90s and aughts (which are largely silly and filled with hypocrisies) made it all come crashing down, baseball had lost traction with the popular culture, a sport that revered team before individual and humility before braggadocio, unless you were looking for a fastball behind your ear. These society-wide things are (probably) cyclical, and all you can do is better promote your stars.

Commissioner Bud Selig’s retirement is a positive, as his leadership has flagged on almost every important issue, from technology to padded caps for pitchers to stadium disputes. The rise of regional sports cable and its need for live content has provided the MLB with money to paper over Selig’s failings. Owners and players have never been richer, and there’s some danger in that. I have doubts that the next commissioner will be more progressive, but we can hope. So many kids and young adults having no interest in the sport is scary.

The other best thing that could happen to baseball would be to have its antitrust exemption stripped. There is no way for competition to arise under the current system. (To be fair, even without the exemption, it would be difficult to start a new league.) But perhaps a speed league that enforced rules to shorten games to two hours would force the MLB to change and grow. Good competition for the league is as important as good competition between the teams–maybe even more important in the big picture.

The opening of “Is It Game Over?” Jonathan Mahler’s recent New York Times essay:

“MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL is doing just fine. Unlike the N.F.L. and the N.B.A., it has been free of labor strife for nearly 20 years. It has more exciting young stars than I can ever remember. It has even achieved that elusive ‘competitive balance,’ with seven different champions over the last decade. Teams across the country are playing in brand-new ballparks that they somehow persuaded local governments to help pay for. Over the last 20 years, baseball revenues have grown from roughly $1 billion to nearly $8 billion.

The game, in other words, has never been healthier. So why does it feel so irrelevant?

Maybe the best evidence of this admittedly unscientific observation is the national TV ratings. There’s no sense comparing baseball’s numbers to football’s, which exist in a whole other Nielsen’s stratosphere. But baseball is losing ground to pro basketball, too. In 2012, the N.B.A.’s regular season ratings on ABC were nearly double those of Major League Baseball on Fox. The last eight years have produced the seven least-watched World Series on record.

More to the point, baseball seems simply to have fallen out of the national conversation (unless the conversation happens to be about steroids, that is). The last time baseball felt front and center, culturally speaking, was the 1998 home-run race between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. And we all know how that turned out.”

Tags: ,

More than a decade ago, before everyone could disappear into their own channel, their own tube, I argued that I thought personalization was dangerous. Perhaps inevitable with cable TV and the Internet providing endless channels, but a bad thing for a democracy. The beauty of the heterogeneous is that you’re exposed to other arguments than your own, and even if you’re not moved by them, you at least understand how the other half lives. For too many people in this country, that appears to no longer be true.

I mentioned last week that I thought GOP insularity was at least partly behind the government shutdown. More on the topic from New York‘s ever-excellent Jonathan Chait:

“One of the causes of the economic and Constitutional crisis unleashed by House Republicans is their utter failure to grasp how Democrats would perceive their behavior. Conservative reporter Byron York perceptively, and alarmingly, describes a discussion with an influential Republican, who explains that the GOP stumbled into the shutdown war without a plan and repeatedly expected Democrats to bail them out by capitulating, only to be shocked when they refused. The GOP’s strategic failure has grown out of its intellectual insularity (or, to reprise a once-hot term, epistemic closure) leaving them so unaware of the principles motivating the other side that they couldn’t anticipate the Democrats’ obvious response.

‘I would liken this a little bit to Gettysburg,’ York’s source explained, ‘where a Confederate unit went looking for shoes and stumbled into Union cavalry, and all of a sudden found itself embroiled in battle on a battlefield it didn’t intend to be on, and everybody just kept feeding troops into it.’ An even more apt, and more recent, analogy might be Iraq, when Republican war planners expected a suspicious Muslim culture to greet their troops with sweets and flowers.

If you reside within the conservative news bubble, you probably had no idea before this crisis what the Democratic position on the debt ceiling and the shutdown is. You still probably have no idea now.”

Tags: ,

Future shock in the present tense, Singularity University in Mountain View, California, is a Moore’s Law-loving educational institution and business incubator that may be expensive folly or the future–or perhaps a little of both. Eric Benson of Buzzfeed graduated from Ray Kurzweil and Peter Diamandis’ school, which promises abundant energy, the end of illness and even immortality, and filed a report. The opening:

“It was the final night of classes at Singularity University’s March 2013 Executive Program, and we, the students, had been given a valedictory assignment: Predict the future.

For the past six days, the 63 of us had been immersed in lectures on the nearly limitless potential of artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology, and bioinformatics, and now the moment had arrived for us to figure out what we really believed and ponder the big questions. Was a transhuman future — the Singularity — really only three decades away, as SU’s chancellor and co-founder Ray Kurzweil had prophesied? Were we really on the brink of a cure for all viruses and an era of radical energy abundance? Would we soon be able to choose to live forever? How many glasses of wine would it take until our group of entrepreneurs, executives, and hippie mystics got impatient and just resolved to build a time machine?

Inside Singularity University’s airy classroom on the campus of NASA’s Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California, the SU staff distributed about 50 sheets of paper, many bearing newspaper headlines from this radical but not-too-distant future. (A future that, shockingly, still included a print newspaper industry.) We were instructed to break up into small groups to decide when in the next 20 years these world-changing milestones would come to pass.

‘LIFE EXPECTANCY REACHES 150 IN AMERICA’ blared the first headline. I stared at it incredulously. Life expectancy in the United States was currently 79. For the life expectancy to hit 150, that would mean… I started to do some back-of-the-napkin calculations. One of my fellow classmates, the 66-year-old chairman of an international law firm, was quicker to formulate his answer. ‘According to a gerontologist in England, the first person to live to 1,000 has already been born,’ he told us. ‘I’m not sure I believe that, but everyone thinks that the first person to live to 150 has already been born. I’d even say the first person to live to 200 has been born.’ The other five of us nodded our heads. We collectively decided that U.S. life expectancy would reach 150 within the next 10 to 15 years.”

 

Tags: ,

At this moment, the cycle has turned against automakers, if in a small but scary way. It’s not that demand will dry up, but what if urbanization, shifting attention to technology and mass transit reduces that sector’s prominence in the coming decades? How can those companies repurpose? From “Transport: Freed From the Wheel,” by Robert Wright in the Financial Times:

“Few believe the evidence points to an imminent divorce between America’s still heavily car-dependent cities and the motor car. But a frosty estrangement is a possibility, says Michael Tamor, a senior executive handling sustainability questions for Ford, the second-biggest US carmaker.

Such fears have prompted both Ford and General Motors, the biggest American carmaker, to discuss publicly whether their future might be as ‘mobility providers.’ This could mean leasing cars for short periods or making electric bikes rather than just building and selling cars.

‘We’re trying to predict where things are going to go,’ Mr Tamor says. ‘Whether or not the automobile remains viable [in future cities], it doesn’t mean it will remain the most favoured transportation mode.’

Mr Fischer recognises that cars will remain vital – hence his support for a $1.4bn bridge across the Ohio River. But within the city itself the priority is to make neighbourhoods more ‘bikeable’ and ‘walkable.’

‘There’s a lot of experimentation going on,’ he says.”

Tags: ,

From Fred Vogelstein’s New York Times Magazine article about the iPhone coming to the market in 2007, a succinct description of Apple’s slippery place in mobile computing in the years since:

“[Andy] Grignon knew the iPhone unveiling was not an ordinary product announcement, but no one could have anticipated what a seminal moment it would become. In the span of seven years, the iPhone and its iPad progeny have become among the most important innovations in Silicon Valley’s history. They transformed the stodgy cellphone industry. They provided a platform for a new and hugely profitable software industry — mobile apps, which have generated more than $10 billion in revenue since they began selling in 2008. And they have upended the multibillion-dollar personal-computer industry. If you include iPad sales with those for desktops and laptops, Apple is now the largest P.C. maker in the world. Around 200 million iPhones and iPads were sold last year, or more than twice the number of cars sold worldwide.

The impact has been not only economic but also cultural. Apple’s innovations have set off an entire rethinking of how humans interact with machines. It’s not simply that we use our fingers now instead of a mouse. Smartphones, in particular, have become extensions of our brains. They have fundamentally changed the way people receive and process information. Ponder the individual impacts of the book, the newspaper, the telephone, the radio, the tape recorder, the camera, the video camera, the compass, the television, the VCR and the DVD, the personal computer, the cellphone, the video game and the iPod. The smartphone is all those things, and it fits in your pocket. Its technology is changing the way we learn in school, the way doctors treat patients, the way we travel and explore. Entertainment and media are accessed and experienced in entirely new ways.

And yet Apple today is under siege. From the moment in late 2007 that Google unveiled Android — and its own plan to dominate the world of mobile phones and other mobile devices — Google hasn’t just tried to compete with the iPhone; it has succeeded in competing with the iPhone. Android has exploded in popularity since it took hold in 2010. Its share of the global smartphone market is approaching 80 percent, while Apple’s has fallen below 20 percent. A similar trend is under way with iPads: in 2010 the iPad had about 90 percent of the tablet market; now more than 60 percent of the tablets sold run Android.

What worries Apple fans most of all is not knowing where the company is headed. “

Tags: ,

David Epstein, author of The Sports Gene, is the subject of an excellent EconTalk interview by Russ Roberts. Among other things, he provides solid evidence to undermine the 10,000-hour mishegas, and explains why competitive female runners seem to be getting slower and Tibetan monks living at high altitudes don’t make for great marathoners as Kenyan athletes do. Listen here.

 

Tags: ,

Not only do the branches of government in America serve as checks and balances, but different parties empowered in different wings keep us from moving too fast in any direction. But what if that keeps us from moving at all? The American system only works if there isn’t pure partisanship, if politics makes strange bedfellows. The opening of “The Shutdown Prophet,” Jonathan Chait’s customarily excellent analysis in New York:

“In a merciful twist of fate, Juan Linz did not quite live to see his prophecy of the demise of American democracy borne out. Linz, the Spanish political scientist who died last week, argued that the presidential system, with its separate elections for legislature and chief executive, was inherently unstable. In a famous 1990 essay, Linz observed, ‘All such systems are based on dual democratic legitimacy: No democratic principle exists to resolve disputes between the executive and the legislature about which of the two actually represents the will of the people.’ Presidential systems veered ultimately toward collapse everywhere they were tried, as legislators and executives vied for supremacy. There was only one notable exception: the United States of America. 

Linz attributed our puzzling, anomalous stability to “the uniquely diffuse character of American political parties.” The Republicans had loads of moderates, and conservative whites in the South still clung to the Democratic Party. At the time he wrote that, the two parties were already sorting themselves into more ideologically pure versions, leaving us where we stand today: with one racially and economically polyglot party of center-left technocracy and one ethnically homogenous reactionary party. The latter is currently attempting to impose its program by threat upon the former. The events in Washington have given us a peek into the Linzian nightmare.

Tags: ,

To two great article’s this year about paranoid mental illness inside the surveillance state–Mike Jay’s and Andrew Marantz’s— comes this sad punctuation mark: Miram Carey, who was killed in Capitol Hill yesterday, believed she was being monitored by her own government. And she was, and well all are. And the government in turn is being watched. The prevailing culture feeds delusions, which often aren’t completely delusional–just a scary riff on the truth. It’s not that sick people are “visionaries” or “misunderstood.” No, they’re sick, but so are aspects of the society they’re responding to. It’s not that spying has just begun, but the technology has progressed. We’re new, we’re improved. From Susan Donaldson James at ABC News:

“ABC News’ sources revealed that Carey had started to show signs of mental illness around September 2012, and had a history of delusions and irrational behavior.

She reportedly told the father of her child and 54-year-old boyfriend at the time that she was the ‘prophet of Stamford’ and that President Obama had placed the city on lockdown and had placed her residence under electronic surveillance, which was being fed live to all national news outlets.

Carey told a social worker she had postpartum depression, but Galynker said that postpartum psychosis looks nothing like postpartum depression. Postpartum psychosis is associated with paranoia and delusions, said Galynker.

‘[Her] main symptoms were not depression but were paranoia and delusions,’ he said. ‘But it is all unclear because no one has looked at her medical records. What we have seen is close to a year of psychotic episodes and hospitalizations and [encounters] with police.'”

Tags: ,

« Older entries § Newer entries »