Paul Krugman’s New York Times column addresses the puzzling state of contemporary economics, suggesting the impact of the new technologies on production has been grossly overstated. That might be true. Really smart people have been convinced of completely wrong things before, and Silicon Valley’s effect on the bottom line might just be the latest example. Or maybe, as Krugman acknowledges, we’re only in the prelude of the big change or perhaps the current equations aren’t sufficient to capture the new normal.

The one thing I’ll add is that automation probably can be a big deal for the economy in another sense, even if it doesn’t promote a sea change in production. Apps and automated workplaces don’t necessarily have to hugely increase production to completely obviate workers. It could be an even exchange of computers supplanting labor, torpedoing traditional industries while turning out similar products and services–think Uberization–though who will be able to afford them is the question.

From Krugman:

One possibility is that the numbers are missing the reality, especially the benefits of new products and services. I get a lot of pleasure from technology that lets me watch streamed performances by my favorite musicians, but that doesn’t get counted in G.D.P. Still, new technology is supposed to serve businesses as well as consumers, and should be boosting the production of traditional as well as new goods. The big productivity gains of the period from 1995 to 2005 came largely in things like inventory control, and showed up as much or more in nontechnology businesses like retail as in high-technology industries themselves. Nothing like that is happening now.

Another possibility is that new technologies are more fun than fundamental. Peter Thiel, one of the founders of PayPal, famously remarked that we wanted flying cars but got 140 characters instead. And he’s not alone in suggesting that information technology that excites the Twittering classes may not be a big deal for the economy as a whole.

So what do I think is going on with technology? The answer is that I don’t know — but neither does anyone else. Maybe my friends at Google are right, and Big Data will soon transform everything. Maybe 3-D printing will bring the information revolution into the material world. Or maybe we’re on track for another big meh.