From Maciamo Hay at h+ magazine, an argument for why autonomous vehicles may grow much more rapidly than the slow uptick experienced of hybrids:

“Some might doubt that autonomous cars will take over the market within 10-15 years of their introduction. After all, hybrid cars were launched over 15 years ago (even if only the Toyota Prius at first) and still represent only 10% of new sales in the US, and 25% in Japan, which has the world’s highest percentage. The reason why hybrid cars haven’t been selling very well yet is that they are too expensive. Even though they consume less fuel, for many years it was very hard to amortize due to the difference of initial investment. The initial enthusiasts were often environmentalists.

In contrast, the autonomous car brings a significant direct benefits to consumers in the form of increased safety and convenience, so that people will want them even if they are a bit more expensive, just as happened with smartphones. As always price will be the determinant factor for the speed of adoption, and sales will follow an exponential curve as manufacturing costs drop progressively.”