From “The Future Will Seem Normal“ at the Next Big Future,” Brian Wang’s new post about Earth forty years from now, which is interesting if very accelerated and sci-fi-ish:

“I do not see world government as inevitable (over the next 40 years for sure). But we are seeing this extra layer getting more powers. Trade organizations and treaties. But the UK and China leadership are smart enough to not give up currency sovereignty. They know the game that Germany and France are running.

Long term as we expand out into the solar system then sure Earth could have its own government, but there will still be the layers below. Not sure how it would all split out – like US federal versus states versus local. Or Canada – federal v provinces.

I see a lot more power vesting in the cities. I see mega cities forming. Especially with Sky city – factory mass produced skyscrapers at about ten times less cost and high speed transportation (high speed rail in China and perhaps low pressure or vacuum trains at higher speeds and high energy efficiency, the US could go pocket airports, robot electric cars, and small planes, beamed power could make that work.)

You could have 50 major cities in the 50-300 million pop range. Say 7 in China, 3 in the 200-400 million range and 4 in the 50 million range. Similar number in the US but smaller populations.”