In Current Intelligence, futurist Scott Smith argues that the age of large-scale DIY warfare is upon us. An excerpt:

“Fast forward to today, and we aren’t just talking about roadside bombs. Now, sophisticated weapons, transport and even surveillance fuel international and intra-national cat and mouse games between those with power and those with a roll of duct tape,. Internet access and a spare diesel engine. A full-on global conflict is brewing in hardware and it parallels, in an unsettling way, the expanding hot war in geo-economic hacking. Mexican drug gangs have gained notoriety for developing ‘tanks’ to combat security forces, no doubt inspired by the Colombian narco-submarine business, which, while only in existence for a few years, can now boast in its arsenals 100-foot-plus craft capable of travelling 30 feet below the ocean’s surface from home ports to the Mexican coast.

The poster boy of this movement is the unmanned drone, which has become the focus of amateur weapons builders as well as harmless hobbyists. With the increased use of drones by Western militaries, and an expected boom in ‘legitimate’ drone building (analysts at the Teal Group put global spending on drone development at an estimated US$94 billion by 2021), everyone wants to get involved. A recent Brookings paper details the threats of reduced size and cost of drones, pointing out that ‘in some respects today’s drones are more similar to smartphones than to cruise missiles.’ In essence, small drones today are little more than mobile apps with wings, and as such can be created in short order with a few simple parts. Teal estimates upwards of 70 countries are involved in producing drone technology, including a push in China to match US capability.

The line between official and underground blurs a bit more every day.”