For all the attention that illegal immigrants from Mexico receive, one important factor has been missed: The flow of illegals from our Southern neighbor has markedly decreased–and probably not mostly because of tougher border enforcement. According census figures, more than half a million Mexicans were coming into the U.S. illegally as recently as 2004; the number has shrunk to around 100,000 today. Shifts in Mexico’s demographics, economy and education system seem the likely reasons. So the good news is that there will be a lot more jobs in American rendering plants for natural-born citizens. The opening of Damien Cave’s New York Times article on the topic:

“The extraordinary Mexican migration that delivered millions of illegal immigrants to the United States over the past 30 years has sputtered to a trickle, and research points to a surprising cause: unheralded changes in Mexico that have made staying home more attractive.

A growing body of evidence suggests that a mix of developments — expanding economic and educational opportunities, rising border crime and shrinking families — are suppressing illegal traffic as much as economic slowdowns or immigrant crackdowns in the United States.

Here in the red-earth highlands of Jalisco, one of Mexico’s top three states for emigration over the past century, a new dynamic has emerged. For a typical rural family like the Orozcos, heading to El Norte without papers is no longer an inevitable rite of passage. Instead, their homes are filling up with returning relatives; older brothers who once crossed illegally are awaiting visas; and the youngest Orozcos are staying put.

‘I’m not going to go to the States because I’m more concerned with my studies,’ said Angel Orozco, 18. Indeed, at the new technological institute where he is earning a degree in industrial engineering, all the students in a recent class said they were better educated than their parents — and that they planned to stay in Mexico rather than go to the United States.” (Thanks Marginal Revolution.)