Peter Frase

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Despite the god-awful results of the recent American Presidential election, nightmares rarely play out, thankfully, but conjuring worst-case scenarios can speak truth to very justifiable fears.

Those who bought into the Trumpian nostalgia for a more alabaster America delivered the country to a cohort of profiteers, polluters and plutocrats that will leave the nation bleeding from the wherever. The Simon Cowell-ish strongman’s biggest supporters, older and whiter and working-class, will be hurt as badly as anyone with the Affordable Care Act, Medicare and Social Security resting in the hands of the merciless. Labor unions will also be attacked relentlessly and climate change ignored, further endangering this demographic, which already has little shelter from the storm.

With the selection of Tom Price as Health and Human Services Secretary, a war will also be waged on the poor. As Politico states: “Price wants to limit federal Medicaid spending to give states a lump sum, or block grant, and more control over how they could use it — a dream of conservative Republicans for years and a nightmare for advocates for the poor who fear many would lose coverage.” There is basis for grave concern.

Peter Frase’s newly published book, Four Futures: Life After Capitalism, looks at the potential paths ahead should automation obviate too many jobs. Such a revolution in production could be boon or bane and probably will ultimately reside somewhere in between, but in the author’s most dire prediction, a post-apocalyptic explosion of wealth inequality emerges, with some obscenely rich and the rest meat for crows. Tomorrow probably won’t work out that horribly, but the hard-right shift we’re likely to now endure makes it frighteningly easy to visualize.

From Ben Tarnoff at the Guardian:

There are far worse things than boredom, however. Frase’s fourth and final future, “exterminism,” is truly terrifying. Exterminism has the robots and scarcity of socialism, minus the egalitarianism. The result is a neo-feudal nightmare: the rich retreat to heavily fortified enclaves where the robots do all the work, and everyone else is trapped outside in the hot, soggy hell of a rapidly warming planet. “The great danger posed by the automation of production, in the context of a world of hierarchy and scarce resources,” Frase says, “is that it makes the great mass of people superfluous from the standpoint of the ruling elite.” The elite can always warehouse this surplus humanity in prisons and refugee camps. But at a certain point, the rich might find it more convenient to simply exterminate the poor altogether, now that they’re no longer needed as workers.

It is a testament both to Frase’s ability as a writer and the barbarism of our present moment that exterminism feels like the most realistic of his futures. I lost sleep over it. Yet he is careful to counsel his readers against despair.•

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Do we fetishize an endgame because it’s easier than making the future work? Is it less a burden to await the final nail in the coffin than to treat the patient? From “The Comforts of Dystopia,” a Jacobin article by Peter Frase, author of “Four Futures” and other speculations:

“While we live in a world that abounds in utopian potential, the realization of that potential depends on the outcome of political struggle. A rich elite that wants to preserve its privileges will do everything possible to ensure that we don’t reach a world of leisure and abundance, even if such a world is materially possible.

But one of the things I’ve struggled with as a writer is the tendency of my more speculative writing to mine a streak of apocalyptic quiescence on the radical left. To me, the story I’m telling is all about hope and agency: the future is here, it’s unevenly distributed, and only through struggle will we get it distributed properly. I suppose it’s no surprise, though, after decades in retreat, that some people would rather tell themselves fables of inevitable doom rather than tackling the harder problem of figuring out how we can collectively walk down the path to paradise.

So of the four futures I described, the one that I think is both the most hopeful and most interesting — the one I call ‘communism’ — is the least discussed. Instead, it’s exterminism, the mixture of ecological constraints, automation, and murderous elites, that seems to stick in peoples’ brains, with the anti-Star Trek dystopia of intellectual property rentiers running a close second.

But strip away the utopian and Marxist framework, and all you have is a grim dismissal of the possibility of egalitarian politics. You get something like this, from Noah Smith, which echoes my account of exterminism but updates it to our present drone-obsessed times. For a lot of isolated intellectual writer types, it can be perversely reassuring to think that achieving a better world is not just difficult, but actually impossible.”

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Connected personal computers mostly disrupted pure-information businesses like music and travel agencies. But 3D printers will strain even endeavors that require a physical component. From Peter Frase at Jacobin:

“Like the computer, the 3-D printer is a tool that can rapidly dis-intermediate a production process. Computers allowed people to turn a downloaded digital file into music or movies playing in their home, without the intermediary steps of manufacturing CDs or DVDs and distributing them to record stores. Likewise, a 3-D printer could allow you to turn a digital blueprint (such as a CAD file) into an object, without the intermediate step of manufacturing the object in a factory and shipping it to a store or warehouse. While 3-D printers aren’t going to suddenly make all of large-scale industrial capitalism obsolete, they will surely have some very disruptive effects.

The people who were affected by the previous stage of the file-sharing explosion were cultural producers (like musicians) who create new works, and the middlemen (like record companies) who made money selling physical copies of those works. These two groups have interests that are aligned at first, but are ultimately quite different. Creators find their traditional sources of income undermined, and thus face the choice of allying with the middlemen to shore up the existing regime, or else attempting to forge alternative ways of paying the people who create culture and information. But while the creators remain necessary, a lot of the middlemen are being made functionally obsolete. Their only hope is to maintain artificial monopolies through the draconian enforcement of intellectual property, and to win public support by presenting themselves as the defenders of deserving artists and creators.” (Thanks Browser.)

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