“I Like To Think Iraq Can Still Hold Together”

Jane Arraf, Al Jazeera’s Iraq correspondent, has more hope than most for a one-state solution for the exploding country and its warring factions. She just did an Ask Me Anything at Reddit. A few exchanges follow.

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Question:

How are the Sunni and Shiite Arabs in Iraq feeling about the U.S. air campaign against ISIS? Most of the media coverage so far has only focused on how the Kurds and Assyrian Christians feel.

Jane Arraf:

I think apart from Iraqi minorities under threat and perhaps the Kurds, very few Iraqis want a large US military presence here. They are though – particularly the Shiite – quite aware of how much of a threat IS fighters pose and when push comes to shove most people are quite happy with US air strikes if it helps restore some stability.

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Question:

Do you think ISIS has momentum and resource to become an established state, or is its success fleeting?

Jane Arraf:

Great question – it does have resources and certainly momentum but I think the momentum is being stopped. I think people have to look at the root causes of why they are getting support in some regions. The fact remains that in areas they have taken over they are not proving able to run a state that many people would want to live in.

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Question:

Do you think the Kurds can hold off ISIS much longer?

Jane Arraf:

Not without help no. I think their forced retreat has been a wake-up call. Some of the units that gave up cities in the Nineveh plains seem to have performed quite badly and there are indications that the lack of professionalism that has plagued Iraqi security forces, although to a lesser extent, was to blame. It’s been a long time since the Kurdish region was really threatened and now they are returning to their warrior roots – but they need help.

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Question:

Do you think peace might be achieved by some sort of neo-Westphalian agreement, in which each particular identity (Shia, Sunni, Kurd, Alawite, Christian, etc.) is given sovereignty over its own national/religious state?

Jane Arraf:

I like to think Iraq can still hold together – people revert to religious and tribal identities when they feel threatened and politicians do it when they have something to gain from it. Everyone now is very insecure and determined to hold on to whatever they have. Eventually there might well be separate Sunni and Kurdish states but I don’t think its inevitable.

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Question:

As a more broad question, do you think a unified single state solution in Iraq is possible, or is it untenable given the historical strife between different groups within the country (Kurds, Sunnis, Shiites, etc)?

Jane Arraf:

I think Saddam was the awful glue that kind of kept the country together but I would like to think the frequent Iraqi comment that Iraq needs a strong man doesn’t do the country justice. I think with good governance a lot is possible and I’m not sure Iraq has had that so far for a variety of reasons rather than the fault of any one politician.•

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