“It Is Very Unlikely That ANY Company At Its Peak Today Will Be Around In 50 Years”

Kevin Kelly’s AMAs on Reddit are always among the best: smart questions and smart answers. Here are a few exchanges from his latest one:

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Question:

It seems you’ve been all over the world. I assume you’re already living in your favorite place to live. But if you couldn’t live there, what would be your second choice?

Kevin Kelly:

Singapore. I am half Asian now and Singapore is one of the few cities in Asia I could imagine living in. It’s vibrant, but still works, and it is far greener than you’d think. It’s not Disneyland with the death penalty.

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Question:

Can you paraphrase your argument against The Singularity?

Kevin Kelly:

In short: Timing. Longer: it will happen but only be visible in retrospect. During the time, it will just seem like incremental change.

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Question:

It seems like you spend a fair bit of time thinking about the future, probably just in general as well. Where’s your day-to-day “thinking time” look like? Do you have a time scheduled during the day to stop writing/beekeeping/whatever and just think? Do you focus on a particular problem or idea to think about or just let your mind run wild? Considering your quantified self connection, have you found any useful tips for finding your most creative moments?

Kevin Kelly:

I block out lots of time to 1) Read (books) 2) Think in silence 3) Sketch and doodle 4) Go for walks.

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Question:

My question is, how do you see automation of the workforce transitioning to post-scarcity(if at all)?

Kevin Kelly:

Automation of work will create new scarcities while filling the world with plentitude in other ways. New scarcities will be such things as human attention, human relations, silence, errors, questions.

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Question:

In a tweet, you once suggested that content we have today, say on Facebook and Twitter, will be gone in 25 or 50 years. Are you confident these companies will not be around and/or transition? Also, are you able to provide brief, clear, simple vision of how laypersons might expect to reliably store data in next 25 years? Thanks for consideration.

Kevin Kelly:

It is very unlikely that ANY company at its peak today will be around in 50 years. They just don’t have long lifespans.

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Question:

Have you read The Circle? If so, what did you think of it?

Kevin Kelly:

I think The Circle is both brilliant and profound. I think the book will take its place alongside 1984 and Brave New World. It doesn’t have much chance of happening, but it is a cautionary tale to keep us honest.

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Question:

What do you think contributed most to your success?

Kevin Kelly:

No TV.•

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